Nancy Lyons, Bloomberg, FED discussed on Balance of Power


Let's get an update at world and national news. Nancy Lyons is the Bloomberg 99 one newsroom in Washington, Nancy. Thanks, John. Retailers are in the middle of what has traditionally been a major shopping day to kick off the holiday season, Bloomberg surf chat and has more from Washington. Not to worry, former Federal Reserve economist Claudia son sat in a Bloomberg interview. Consumers have delivered this year. We have had a very steady pace in terms of overall spending and the labor market is great. People when they have income, they spend it. Americans have income. Inflation is moderating son said, thanks to the resolution of supply chain issues, and if much of the spending is by higher income Americans, that keeps the lower income people who serve them working. In Washington nerf Chapman Bloomberg radio. The number of Americans carrying guns every day is on the rise. An estimated 6 million adults carried a loaded handgun with them daily in 2019. That's double the number of those who said they carried a gun every day in 2015. That's according to a new study that was published in the American journal of public health, with two mass shootings this week, President Biden has said he wants to try to pass a ban on assault weapons. European countries are scrambling to help Ukraine stay warm and keep functioning through the bitter winter months. The country has pledged today to send more equipment and support that will mitigate the Russian military's effort to turn off the heat and lights. Officials estimate around 50% of Ukraine's energy facilities have been damaged. At the World Cup today, excitement is building for the game between Team USA and England this afternoon that slated for 2 p.m. Wall Street time already today, Iran defeated Wales Senegal beat cutter and the Netherlands and Ecuador are tied at one apiece. Global news 24 hours a day on air and on Bloomberg quicktake powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. I'm Nancy Lyons. Now back to you, Carolyn Paul. Nancy, I've got a couple shekels on the Netherlands, so I have a interest in this one. So keep us up to date there. We appreciate that. All right, here, so it just seems like every fed president speaks all the time. Is that always been the case? It just seems like more and more, every time we turn around when they're not in the quiet period, we're hearing from a fed. I guess it's not. The only person I care about is Jay pal and I guess we're going to hear from him next week. And so when I want to get a sense on what's going on at the fed and on the economy writ large, we turn to Danielle, demartino booth. She's a CEO and chief strategist at quill intelligence, former adviser at the Federal Reserve bank of Dallas. She's our go to voice on this stuff. So Danielle, what is my fed chairman going to tell me? Next week. I think your fed chair come Wednesday is going to be resolute, even though reading through those minutes on Wednesday, it revealed that he is increasingly alone in standing up against the doves. By the way, it is Friday. So I've got the some people have the clock running down to New Year's Eve. I've got the clock running down to blackout, which is 7 days from now, which is when those set officials. No, that's a really good point. And it did feel like the minutes, you know, even though they were a few weeks old at this point, there was something almost for everyone, Danielle in that. Maybe we'll see smaller increases by the FOMC, but still we're talking about a higher ultimate fed funds rate. So it did feel like there was something for everyone. What could Jay Powell say when he addresses the brookings institution in Washington on Wednesday? He's going to talk economies going to talk about the labor market. He's going to take audience questions, brave man. What could he say that could change the thinking about fed policy? I think as long as Jay Powell sticks to his narrative that going from 75 to 50 is still unusually large, right? We didn't have 50 until 1994 before this, there were still at twice the magnitude. And that he sees nothing on the immediate horizon that suggests that the fed has achieved returning to 2%, meaning we're not accustomed to the fed, bringing the fed funds rate up and keeping it there. And I think he's going to reemphasize his idea of until the job is done. And that is going to fly in the face of those who are expecting some kind of easing in the near term. I'd say near term meaning 6 to 9 months. I think he's going to refute that idea. So the bull case out there for risk assets, I guess Danielle, this predicated to some degree that, hey, the fed has already raised interest rates pretty substantially. And lo and behold, it's actually working, whether you look at the housing market or maybe look at some of the commodity prices rolling over. Is a reasonable thing, but you're suggesting that's not where our fed chairman is. It's not that he doesn't remember. He's a lawyer. He's not a PhD. Economics. He follows the real-time data, probably more closely than a PhD in economics who would follow only seasonally adjusted long data series. He knows what's happening in the market. But again, financial conditions remain very loose historically speaking. And I think that that is more of his target is trying to flush out this whole speculative nature that we've had in the markets for the last 40 years. I've been maintaining. He's got a grander plan. He's trying to put monetary policy making back in the hands of the people that officials at the Federal Reserve as opposed to the market making monetary policy on behalf of the fed. The tail wagging the dog. But it is hard for to be fair for the fed it feels like Danielle, especially when you do whether it's the pandemic that causes all of a sudden unprecedented stimulus to be out there, you know, we constantly see when we run into trouble that it does feel like lawmakers in Washington are quick to kind of help out lend a hand and that changes kind of the liquidity story and does make it trickier for the fed. It does. And to the point of some St. Louis stead research, we inject it 43.2% of GDP into the economy inside of 12 months. That compares to the entire new deal or a 41 40.1%

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