Steve Leuthold, 34,500, April Last Year discussed on Bloomberg Surveillance


In April last year, average hourly earnings were up 8.2% in a in a month where we lost 20 million jobs. That was simply because the jobs lost skewed toward the lower the weight spectrum, which boosted the average. The exact opposite is happening now. So, you know, labor costs. Employment cost index. Those would be the metrics that when a Fed has a median measure called wage trackers, so those would be the labor market metrics I would focus on then there so all generally fairly tame. Listen, Profit is so in people will say, Well, I only want to invest in companies that are profitable. How do you define? How do you study the prophet of an individual company or for that matter of sector, I mean, Did you do to grand out and coddle and go down in that income, or do you go up the income statement? Beautifully for me? Don't I don't have to do that anymore. I I know you don't do it. What? What's what? Sanders won a one on how you measure profit. Well, I think it's certainly in this environment you have to do some normalization. I like the methodology that I saw first pioneered by Steve Leuthold, which is five year normalized earnings, and it's it's actually Couple of interesting combos in there. It's it's 4.5 years of historic earnings, not a Zafar back A Schiller but reasonable you You can skip over some of the extreme like a covert situation. Two quarters of forward earnings. You get a little bit of that embedded forward and then takes the midpoint between operating earnings and reported earnings and I have found that that's a pretty smooth way. Looking at earnings that blends that necessity of looking at what they've actually earned understanding the market tends to be forward, looking also understanding, especially in extreme environments. Had to spread between reported an operating congee significant and that's about the cleanest way I've seen to analyze the overall market, an individual company or a broad sector. Listen, Sanders out on Twitter at l I Z. I am an S O and D R s. I think I got the spelling right? 11 12 13 charts every morning. Really, quite good. She's a small from Charles Schwab is their chief investment strategist. Dalek 104 points. 34,500 exactly 18.41. On the vics with our news.

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