University Of Chicago Becker Friedman Institute discussed on The DeMaio Report with Carl DeMaio and Lou Penrose


Are apparently going to be gone for good in this is according to the university of Chicago Becker Friedman institute and they basically surveyed a variety of employers as well as economic development agencies and they predict that forty percent of recent layoffs will result in the permanent job losses as businesses decide that they don't need as many staff to carry on their functions or because of the you know contracting economy they're not willing to take the risk of bringing on more staff at this point all right so if we if we put ourselves into a twenty percent unemployment a nation wide and just a little less than half of it will ever come back that means we're looking at like after this is all over in the smoke clears and we can all go back to work this still gonna be nine eight to nine percent unemployment rate this country eight I think we'd be lucky with eighty nine percent unemployment so that's where this you know the president was thinking more of a V. shape recession but because we stayed close for so long and because we're still closed in California and you know it's gonna be a hard row to hoe even if we do get reopened because there's gonna be a lot of restrictions and because unemployment is so much more lucrative and some people don't want to go back to work your scene a lot of businesses say that they're just simply not going to be rehiring it's going to be a very long slogs I would say eighty percent would be if we were lucky probably more like twelve thirteen percent it just I mean that it boggles the mind that we put in an effort if you believe that they knew what they were doing which I I've not yet come to the police but in an effort I don't abundance of caution to make sure people were not destitute right that we over paid people to stay home and I think I was listening to something on the morning news us and it was morning news this morning saying something along the lines of anybody that makes over twenty anybody that makes under twenty dollars an hour are doing better not going back to work then going back to work so actually the number the number for San Diego county is twenty eight dollars an hour if you're if you're earning twenty dollars or less you will end up losing out on unemployment insurance because you're not taxed on unemployment insurance it's more like thirty two dollars and so the question becomes how much more would they have to pay you to get you off your couch to actually go in and be a productive citizen right into the big you know it could be thirty four thirty five thirty six thirty seven thirty eight dollars but we gotta adjust the unemployment insurance number so that there is accountability so that we have if there's an offer of if there's an offer of an employment that you lose your unemployment benefits if you decide to declined the job and that's why I'm encouraging small business owners if if they're having a hard time recruiting employees make sure you car carbon copy the unemployment insurance office with the offer letter why I dreaded that actually makes sense to make sure that everybody's being honest I they are still offering Carl or at least talk about offering benefits do you know extending unemployment insurance benefits and offering extra money as we move into June so this is going to be this is not gonna be an overnight thing where everybody that is not working goes back to work and it's gonna be a pretty messy transition absolutely and and and that's why this three trillion dollar bailout program that Nancy and the Democrats are trying to cram through really has to be evaluated the air to detail in fact I don't think it's necessary that we need to go with the regulation we need to get these people back to work we need to get the businesses back on their feet and the only way to do that sustainably is not to get on welfare it's too geeky get the productivity the economic engine going again and now here's another survey Facebook has a survey out showing that fifty five percent are not going above a small business businesses do not plan to hire the same workers back and one third don't plan to re open this is scary save Facebook said it surveyed eighty six thousand small businesses and medium sized business owners and it was part of an data initiative that they partnered with the World Bank and organization for economic cooperation and development OECD forty five percent of owners and managers of small businesses say it said they would retire the same workers but that they were forced to let go a third of businesses surveyed said they do not expect to reopen basically saying the economy doesn't justify it seventy four percent reported not having access to paid sick leave and then these are the employees seventy percent said that they they do not have paid time off and those numbers are pretty big in the hotel cafe and restaurant industries were ninety percent said that they don't have six sick leave or paid time off so you know this is this economy is wrecked at this point and the the real focus right now needs to be not on flattening the curve the covert courage you need to be on jump starting the economy we need to have as much diligence we need of models and guidelines and stats and recommendations in commissions and deadlines and mandated orders for how do we revitalize the economy how do we get that curve back up to where it needs to be and that's going to require some some really different thinking than the traditional progressive thinking at a governor's Simms office or at all if you're in Sacramento I mean we we really need to prime the pump now we need to reduce regulations on businesses put them in a position where it's it's it's affordable for them to hire to ramp up staffing because even if they if they hire new staff that's great but there's training time there's all kinds of of of of learning curves make people profitable make employee is worth were in a worth being on the payroll so there's there's a lot that has to happen and if once if we wanted to happen quickly then we really need government in California to behave in a much different way then so they behaved in my lifetime I don't know if that's even possible but it's got to start well I. N. in that there seems to be a double standard emerging if you're big and powerful new some in the politicians will cuddle you and count how do you but if you're some your small business owner just barely making ends meet struggling at this is your livelihood on the line if you're gonna go to jail yeah we have a great story that showcases just that and we'll tell you about it that's next on the to my report called the mile and Penrose.

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