Russia, Emmanuel Macron, Nipro discussed on Monocle 24: The Globalist

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The east. Sometimes we have seen notifications being sent out to the citizens in the eastern Ukraine. Especially in nipro. Urging civilians to leave their homes because I think they're expecting some serious damage to be done there. And when it comes to urban warfare, it's very difficult. I mean, especially for Ukrainian defenders. The destruction is going to be on a massive level and at least trying to save civilians would be the number one priority now. What are the expectations of what is going to be happening? I mean, your brother clearly made it clear what he thinks is around the corner. But when you look at the way that the Ukrainians have been able to resist an assault on Kyiv, for example, does that not give you a little bit of hope that despite the utter destruction that's being meted out, there will be a firm resistance waiting for the Russians. It does, and I think it's extremely admirable that even soldiers captured in mariupol are still not giving up. They're not leaving their fellow soldiers behind the wounded ones, even the dead ones they are saying were now withdrawing because we need to bury our friends and they keep fighting. They keep getting supplies, which is just unthinkable. They're resilience of Ukrainian soldiers. And that's been proven, and I have no doubt in their courage and their strength. It's mostly about how far and how vicious Russia will be, what weapons they will be using. We already saw them using thermobaric weapons. God forbid chemical or tactical nuclear weapons to be used. And it seems that because they didn't get key of because their initial plan failed. Going for the east and maybe securing the southern coast of the Black Sea to fully control it and cut Ukraine off from that could be the only retaliation that they would be happy with in terms of their own internal ideology side to upkeep their propaganda and the famous phrase let's save the face. So I think that's what Russia unfortunately they will go to the full extent with this one. You know, he lived so thank you so much for joining us in the studio. You're listening to the globalist on monocle 24. 8 12 in Paris 7 12 here in London in 48 hours, France, folks in the first round of the presidential elections. The gap is narrowing between the current president Emmanuel Macron and his nearest rival marine le pen leader of the far right national rally. So to here to look ahead to Sunday's poll is nabila ramdani, a French Algerian journalist and broadcaster and from Spider-Man joining us on the line from Paris. She's a Janice for AFP. Good morning to you both. Good morning Emma. Good to have you. Now let's just get the latest in terms of the polls Florence. Who is where do things stand this morning? Well, I mean, they stand like they stand some months ago already, which means Emmanuel Macron is still leading the competition. If I may say, but the phenomenon, as you say, is that the difference with the marine le pen is really decreasing. And this is kind of a worrying and first time thing that there is such a narrow margin between the president and an extremely high candidate. And so now the poll would be, I don't give an exact figure because it's about 26% for Macron and 22 or even sometimes 24% for the pen. Nabila, that is a close run race, isn't it? Yes, indeed. I mean, most recent polls as Florence just said suggests that the Manuel Macron will win the first round of the elections. But also the second round. I think the only slight surprise we've had we have had over the last week or so is marine le pen of the far right Hassan blenheim, narrowing the gap with Macron. And one poll suggested that he might win as much as 48% for the second round against mister Macron. Now, this would not see her win, but with a margin of error, anything is possible. And if she were to win, he would of course create a political earthquake and remember this is her third attempt to get into the palace. And she represents a party with less than ten seats in the French parliament. So yes, the French political system is a quirky one, and in this day of Donald Trump and Brexit, anything is possible, but I would still be absolutely astonished if le pen was to win over two rounds. That is the issue, isn't it Florence that you have this arguably very wise system of election in France that you spend that your first election this is coming up this Sunday is the opportunity for people to dare I say how they really feel or what they give their views behind closed doors and they have whatever protest vote they need to get out of their system and by the time you get to the second vote in a few weeks time, people hold their nose and go for the most pragmatic option. Are we still relying on that system to hold? Yes, because so far, nobody wanted to change this presidential system and the way the election is done with a majority vote, which means that smaller parties maybe have less chances and everything is focused on the personality of one person who will be the president. What will most probably happen? I agree with nebula is that in the second round Macron will win, but what will be interesting is the rate of abstention.

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