Steelers, Monto, Jeff Hartmann discussed on Behind the Steel Curtain


Pittsburgh steelers coming back with some more numbers. I hope you enjoyed that breakdown of you know where the steelers might be a little bit stronger as the season goes on based on how as week by week as they go. I mean i it have been broken down by monto but then all the bye week comes in there so it was just it was by. It was done by week and it was very nice. Don thank you. Mike smith for that great discussion that we had over email and thank you for the fantastic graphic. I will make sure. I get that an article sometime here. At bindis. Soaker dot com. So next is. Let's look at the steelers opponents for twenty twenty one versus the teams. They played in two thousand twenty. Now we already know that. The steelers went from one of one of the easiest schedules based on record from the previous year. In twenty twenty two having the most difficult schedule in the nfl based on teams twenty twenty records. Now we've already talked about this. We dove into this on this show. And i talked about how that's worked out for for teams in the past and teams that have made the postseason remember everytime steelers have had the most difficult schedule in the last however many years. I figured that out. I think it was at least fifteen. Maybe twenty i can't remember. That was a while ago that they've made the postseason. They made the playoffs. So that's interesting to know. But when jeff hartmann wrote an article about oh can the steelers score thirty points per game this year. Can they average that. I'm like dude. That's crazy. I mean even when they were one of the better offenses in the league they weren't they couldn't do it so to think that they're going to touch that this year and obvious. And here's the thing and it's crazy that people don't read the whole article. 'cause we're doing. This was part of our thirty scenarios in thirty days. So the title of the article is the scenario. But it doesn't mean that our prediction that that scenario will come true and yet people were just assuming that because it's the scenario that the answer is. Oh yeah they will know. The his answer was no. They're not going to get to. They're not going to average thirty points this year. Just opinion and i agree with them and a lot of people were bringing up the you know the date. And that's where the whole thing that talked about with with data earlier to start. The podcast came about. What's good data and you know still can't believe somewhat says don't use twenty twenty data to start then you have no start anyway but i went back to the twenty twenty season and like we know things change but like oh this strength of schedule that should be. The number one factor. Well you know what. I don't think so i don't think so. I mean there to me. I think the steelers themselves is more of a factor than their opponents honestly. And we've seen that a lot of times. The steelers play better when they have a tougher opponent now. I don't know that we saw that very all the time in twenty twenty but i mean. They stepped up in that tennessee game. They definitely stepped up the first time they they played the ravens the second one it was ugly but they managed to win but the first time that they played baltimore. That shellacking of the mistake by the lake The that the steelers had last year. Those were some some solid teams. That were they stepped up. But the whole notion of the steelers. Can't you know. Are they even going to average twenty points or whatever because their schedules. So much harder okay. Their schedule might be harder. But let's really look at the data those teams at the steelers played in two thousand twenty versus. The ones are going to play in two thousand twenty one where they better for for offensive reasons or defensive reasons. So here's what i did. First of the steelers play nine of the same games. I mean may not be in the same location. But i don't wanna say teams because the teams i played twice nine of their games for for in twenty twenty one are against opponents that they played in twenty twenty that is six games within the division and then they also play tennessee who they played last year buffalo. They played last year and will denver. They played last year. Go say and a team from the west. And i had to figure who was so. Yeah so it was denver. So i just through those out. Didn't even bother because you know what the date is going to be in both categories. So what i did was i said. Let's look at new opponents. Let's look at uncommon opponents for the two years. So i broke down the seven teams that the steelers played last year that they don't play this year and the eight teams because going to the seventeen games schedule that they will play this year that they didn't play last year and i didn't just look at it as their records. I'm like let's look at points. Given up and points scored points given up and and point scored. And here's here's what i figured out the. Is that the steelers played in twenty twenty. Where based on twenty twenty results are actually better than the defensive. They're going to be playing in. Twenty twenty one. Yeah even though they had such a low strength Schedule last year versus a very high strength of schedule this year. That it's not because the defenses because the teams that the steelers played last year gave up twenty five point eight five points per game not part of that could be because they were losing games other teams. Weren't you know at the end. Might not have been trying to score points and just run clock that could be a factor you know there's other factors vault but that's the numbers. Twenty five point eight five points. A game is how much they surrendered and the opponents at the steelers play this year. They surrendered twenty six point three points per game. So you know just about a half a point more when you look at it on average all season that that's that's the difference so to say that. Let's say the steelers offense. Oh the steelers offense is going to have it so much. Worse this year are they. Is it the offense. It's going to have it worse when really it's going to be the defense because if you look at the point scored by teams last year that the steelers played. Don't play this year. Those teams scored twenty two point. One nine points a game. I mean that's not good but the teams that they play this year that they that they didn't play last year they average twenty six point eight six points per game so if you look at it the teams that they're playing next year. They scored slightly more half a point. More almost exact point more than what. They surrendered where the teams that they played last year. Gave up more than three and a half points more than.

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