Charles Darwin, Philip Tat, Two Years discussed on Fareed Zakaria GPS


Of the process. And that's the kind of thing that I think we can apply in our own lives. Right. We tend to go with our gut. We tend to go with our first impression of the situation. And we actually need to take time. Imagine alternate scenarios challenge. Our assumptions that's the kind of exercise that that I read about in the book, and you talk about how it's important to imagine. What things will go will look like. Two years three as foyers out not just tomorrow. So in in some sense, a big life decision or a big corporate decision is on some level prediction about the future. Right. And so one of the things that I did in the book is I went back and looked at people in our in the science of prediction like how where have we gotten better at making predictions, right? Where wh- what can we learn from the studies of a people who are good forecasters, and one of the things we've learned this from famous that of studied from a guy named Philip tat lock is that people who are good predictors of the future have a diverse set of interest. Right. They they don't just have a single unified theory of the world, right? They're interested in lots of different things. And those are the people when they're trying to forecast events in a complex system. Those are the people end up being smarter and more far-sighted basically in the judgments, they make there are some people who do approach their decision making in exactly the kind of analytic way. You you want them to? Charles Darwin when he was deciding how to get married what did he do? So this is actually the the seat of this book for me years ago. It was writing about Darwin's notebooks during the eighteen thirties when he's coming up the theory of evolution. And there's a very funny in the middle of all of his scientific jottings to himself all of his fascinating, kind of intellectual expirations of of evolution. He takes over two pages in the notebooks. And he creates a pros and cons list for getting married, and it's a list is kind of dated a little bit. I mean reproduced it in the book one of his things he's concerned about if he gets married at city will give up the clever conversation of men in clubs like that's what concerned, but what struck me about. It is the pros and cons list is the one technique that, you know, most of us learn for making complex decisions. And so here.

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