President Trump, Jason Furman, Kate discussed on Tom Sullivan
Sending them very much. Our exports grew by 1%. Yeah, that's it. Um, but we bought $252 billion. Of stuff That exceeds the February level before the pandemic. It Our exports were our imports were 246 billion. Now they're 252 billion. So there's a lot of talk in the financial markets about the dollar is going down. It's going lower, lower lower is getting weaker. That is against weaker is going to be harder for us to buy foreign products that will make them or expensive. So this probably will even out here fairly soon. But the dollar's not dropping simply because Of the of the exploding budget deficit that we have the trillions. It's also because we take these dollars. We buy stuff we ship our dollars overseas. And then Peter Boockvar. Who I think is a great analyst wrote about this. From Blinky Advisors. And he says, Yeah, He says, and then they sell them and convert them to local currencies. And there goes our dollars. So the idea that President Trump had and stood up to China about protecting Um, US Tech. Even though the Democrats and Republicans are trying to destroy our tech industry in this country, in my humble opinion, Which I think is Rami is China could just hardly wait. For us to destroy our tech companies so they can move in to become the world's leader. We are now but they're going to. They're going to try. So the president was trying to protect our technology companies are intellectual properties. On git was the right thing to do, But I said then, and I'll say it now. On Peter Book far has the exact same expression is that tariffs? Never work. They're a bad idea. And Their misplaced they don't work. And they obviously did not work. This time that bed there became an obsession. Peter Navarro was the guy that was pushing all this stuff and he's kind of a French economist. But he had the president's here and he said, Well, he was obsessed with this. But they don't work and they did not work again. Over the last couple of years, So we're back to where we were before. Meantime, we're still paying more money. Perform product. It drives me crazy. So it's far as where they're hiring where they're firing. Um Jason Furman. Harvard economist Now he was economist Economic Council in the Obama years. Yes, a Democrat. He said. The job numbers were worse than what we thought was a little bit worse than I thought. You know, we should be. You know where we're still I don't know, around 11 million jobs short of where we should have been at this point in time, and you look since the summer, the Labor Force participation rate is down. People have not entered the workforce over the last six months, the unemployment rate of 6.7, but that's still conceals some of that unusual exit above and beyond what you'd normally see in a recession this size. Of people from the workforce. Ah, lot of that unemployment now is increasingly long term unemployment. We know those people have a hard time getting back into jobs. Some of them give up. Some of them take jobs that lower wages. So you know this is a concern. We're gonna have growth a couple months from now, for sure. We're gonna have some great growth later this year. Question is at the end of the year when the dust settles. You know how much of the damage is still there? I am worried that they'll be Bill be a decent amount of it's still there. Yeah, no. I think it takes 2 to 3 years minimum toe turn around from what we've been through, and we got to get the vaccine working. But otherwise I agree with firm and that the economy should Crop up pretty nicely this year Steve Lee's men over its CNBC, he says. He was asked the question about Hey, but the stock markets are setting records. How can the stock market find a way to do better than the economy? Well, I'm trying to do the calculations that I've been keeping together here on dime, just about to hit the plus sign in the equal sign here. And I'll tell you exactly what it is 13.7 million, and that's the total of the people who have left the workforce, which is 3.8 million, and the decline in total payrolls, which is 9.8 million. So 13.7 million people there's been I forget who said it. Maybe it was Powell who talked about the idea that don't get fooled by the 6.7%. Unemployment rate. It's actually worse than that, and it's interesting. I don't begrudge a Kate being constructive. I think you know, from a stock market standpoint, it's probably the right call here. I don't make those calls. It's just that the economy has the market has found a way to do better than the economy because of its kind of ability to look perspectively down the line. We talked about this yesterday, Joe the flood of liquidity into the markets. And the idea that look this economy can operate in the markets can prosper with a lot of people unemployed and out of the workforce for at least a while, anyway. I don't know what whether not, there's a catch up or anything like that. And then there's a really weird thing that I don't know if Jason wants to talk about this, but at some point layoffs are terrible for the economy, and they cause growth to go down. At another point, and Kate was kind of alluding to this. Laying off workers and right sizing companies for their businesses is part of the process of healing. I don't know when that moment or that inflection point happens, I think right now these layoffs in December Probably part of a downturn because you have the renewed lockdowns the service of the virus. At some point, you could have further deterioration in the labor market as businesses right size for the reality that will exist when we get back to a more normal economy. Yeah, but we don't get past these new rounds of layoffs. By the way, but probably finished the week if you ever are away from your radio. And you want to listen to the program Live. You can click on a couple of different streams on my website. Tom Sullivan, calm.