Texas Tech, Jeremy Roach, Notre discussed on Bet The Board
Duke has one of the most efficient offenses, despite not really running anything complex. It's just about talent and athletes and Texas tech's defense is number one in the country. And they're also both trending and adjusted efficiency as being number one and offense and number one in defense. It's really a fun matchup from that perspective. When you look at duke, it's about the talent in the athletes, which you mentioned, 5 potential picks in the top 40. And without running anything of substance on offense, their average in a 119 points per hundred possessions. But something's got to give because allowing 83 points per hundred possessions. Ultimately for me, the way officials call this end of the court is the biggest factor. The way Texas tech wants to defend you, they can be really handsy. And I think that's the real X Factor when duke your opponent and they're already getting most 50 50 calls on normal situations, but now every game is potentially coach case last. That does become somewhat worrisome in a pick them like game. So I think that's probably the first thing is how this game is officiated. The second is can do kit jumpers. Texas tech is like super old school in that day. They pack the paint. They shut the middle of the court down they cut off driving lanes. And they're very good, one on one defenders. And tech basically forces you to shoot from outside. And there was a good nugget that I heard and I don't have the kid's name, but he tweeted out that Texas tech this season's played 24 unique opponents. 17 of those 24 had their lowest scoring output in the paint. And if you look it makes sense, Texas tech is number one in the country in near proximity attempts allowed. Their number four in defending those near proximity shots. Now, if you look at duke, they have the size to shoot over the top. You have been chero at 6 ten. He can knock down some jumpers. You have more in Griffin, both 41% plus from the outside. Jeremy roach has been a nice contributor lately helping duke space the floor a little bit. I just hope the refs swallow the whistle. Because if they do, we know what tech is capable of defensively. And you have this added prep time. And I think they can make life difficult for duke offensively if they go hero ball mode, which we have seen pretty much throughout the course of this season, but kind of going back to this price. And that's kind of where the problem lies from me Todd. I expected the game to open duke minus two. But unfortunately, in college basketball, there's very few real oddsmakers and most just got Ken ball. So tech opens minus one. And to me, that is also bookmakers taking a stands as well. And I would envision this being one way traffic come game day from recreational betters on duke. So we'll be really interesting to see where this fluctuates, right? Again, it'll be telling potentially if duke ends up closing a favorite, although not a ton of money required to go through the zero, but a little bit more basketball. If tech moves out to two, very, very telling. What is interesting to me, though, is there was this common opponent in Notre-Dame. And I know duke played Notre-Dame about 6 weeks ago. Tech played them a couple of days ago. But duke was a 6 point favorite at Notre-Dame and we have Notre-Dame's home court worth about three and a half points. So you're looking at 9 and a half on a neutral. We just saw tech closed 6, 6 and a half on a neutral to Notre-Dame last round. Yet again, oddsmakers opened this tech minus one against duke. There is a stance being taken here. There's no doubt about that. There is oddsmakers really trusting some of the analytic minds and basketball. And that's how you arrive at a number that really is giving you no favors if you want to back tech. But I also get it because there is another side of this coin and that duke just has not looked good recently. You lose the finale at Cameron. You trail to an undermanned Syracuse team 78, 77 with three minutes to go. You sneak by Miami, although that looks like a better win now than it did at the time. You get pummeled by vo tech who got bounced in round one. You fail the cover against Fullerton, no matter how flukey the last second dunk was. You trail to a really bad version of Michigan state by 5 with four and a half minutes to go laying 7. And now we're here. Listen, if tech forces duke to be a jump shooting team, where they can't rely on their athleticism as much and you get a fair whistle and tech does enough offensively against a duke team. That's a 166th in adjusted defensive efficiency the last ten games. And text motion offense gives dukes some trouble. Then tech probably wins this game and they're advancing. But there are some hurdles that you certainly have to overcome. Are you confident that tech can make enough shots? I know obviously I'm asking the simple overriding question here because if we believed in text offense, then this game becomes a runaway. Bryson Williams, Kevin o'bannon, so much going to be expected them. Do we think do can solidify its defense or, hey, look, they've given us a full body of work. There's no reason to believe they can fix all that ails on the defensive end going into a game of this magnitude. I think it's tough. Obviously, you have the players that if they buy in, they can defend. If you look at their one on one defense, it's not bad. They have an ability to guard without fouling, which is something Texas tech does rely on getting to the free throw line. It just becomes what transpires here in the next four days preparing for this game. There's no reason to team that talent and talented can't defend. None whatsoever. And you see in moments where it's late in the Michigan state game, they're able to get some stops. They just don't have that intensity or will or want for the entire stretch of the game. And maybe now that these games are a little bit more impactful, we'll see that defensive effort. I had a conversation with Brad on Monday and he pointed out something that was very interesting. This is typically not a spot where duke has had success under coach K Owen 5 in the tournament playing on the West Coast. This game obviously is going to be played in San Francisco. Texas tech correct me if I'm wrong was just playing out in the West Coast. Last round. So there is some familiarity in San Diego in that last tick against Montana state in their win over Notre-Dame..