Bernie Sanders Bernie Sanders, Bernie Bernie Sanders, Donald Trump discussed on Ballots and Dollars
And I'm Alexis. Christopher us today we are talking about Bernie Bernie Sanders surge in the polls and why Democrats are starting to get a little scared about President Bernie Sanders Rick. Is it really a possibility. Ability your understating. And they're not getting a little scared. I think Democrats Traditional Democrats establishment. Democrats are basically freaking out Well Bernie Supporters Porter's think of course it's possible And I'll just tell you where we stand in the race at this point so I'm looking at five thirty eight the election site or the data site the polling site. Anybody can go. Oh here and see what they're saying but they're Here's their handicapping for the Democratic primary. WHO's GonNa win the Nomination Bernie Sanders one into likelihood? He's going to win. Fifty percent odds of winning at this point Joe Biden. Who was the front runner for most of the time until voting actually started down to only one in five chance of getting the nomination? Twenty percent sent They they say there's a twenty five percent chance nobody gets enough votes to win the nomination. which would lead to this nightmarish brokered convention scenario Elizabeth Warren? She was strong in the fall all the way down there. Just giving her one and twenty-five odds that four percent and tomorrow just tick off your Buddha judge He's been doing well in early voting but there are also giving him just four percent chance of getting out just because he's Not so well known outside of the Early Voting States Mike Bloomberg who. We've talked about a little bit. May Talk about they're saying is less than one percent chance of winning the nomination at this point so Bernie Sanders is just going strong and honestly Democrats are freaking out now. Why is that because right because there are some Democrats who actually think that Sanders against trump is no contest? That trump wins. That is the reason that Democrats are freaking out. No Right now. The data on this is conflicting. So let let's ask the basic question so I mean you know just to go back not assume everybody knows this so Bernie Sanders is the most left leaning of the Democrats Further to the left and Elizabeth Warren Unless just remind people some of his some of the things he supports Medicare for all a single payer or government healthcare plan completely eliminate private insurance and move one hundred sixty or a hundred and seventy million Americans out of private insurance into this government plan. free college for everybody massively higher taxation on the wealthy and possibly a lower threshold for Who counts as as wealthy and some people might be comfortable with For as far as taxes go and also the green new deal which is yet another massive government program And you add had this all up in the cost of these things would be trillions of dollars per year. I mean you know. The federal government spends about four trillion dollars per year Bernie Sanders would more for sure would more than double the amount of federal spending. And so the where's the money gonNA come from it's GONNA come from higher taxes so and you know. He calls himself off a democratic socialist and for sure president trump is going to say if Bernie Sanders is a nominee Do you want me or do you want to social. It's GonNa call everything Bernie. Sanders does socialism. And and to my mind that will work. I think Bernie Sanders does not have a chance against president trump but We do need to knowledge. There are some polls on this so Various polling places. Do ask voters Who would you? Who would you choose? President trump versus fill in the blank Democrat. So so when you say So when you say would you choose trump over biden. Let's put trump up against Joe Biden. Joe Biden wins by five point. Four percentage points and then in these polls when you he put trump up against Bernie Sanders Bernie Sanders according to polls is three point. Seven points ahead of Donald trump so Bernie Sanders supporters. Say Look there are polls showing that he could beat Donald Trump to my mind a theoretical poll before he's even the nominee and a lot of voters haven't really thought about got. It just doesn't carry that much weight and I think Bernie Sanders would have an extraordinarily difficult time. Beating trump. Perhaps impossible when it comes down to primary day. I know there are some polls out there that suggests that Voters would vote for whoever the nominee is not even if that person was not their nominee right But things change when you look at the voters for Bernie Sanders. Yeah honestly they sound kind of nasty and Petty Bernie Sanders supporters. I know I'm going to get hate mail for this but bring it. That's okay and we'll let you have your say So there's a poll by Emerson College and This is from January again. Anybody can look this up Emerson College Paul so they asked First of all which Democrat you support and then if you're if the Democrat you support doesn't win the nomination will you support. Whoever does win the nomination so For Joe Biden nine for example eighty percent of his eighty seven percent of his supporters. Say yes I will support whoever ends up being the nominee Bernie Sanders only only fifty three percent of his supporters. Say yes I will support the nominee. So that if I don't win the game I'm taking my ball and going home And some of them are not actually we traditional Democrats They're about when so Bernie Sanders of course ran for president in two thousand sixteen. He lost that nomination to Hillary Clinton as we know and nearly ten percent of the people who supported Bernie Sanders in the primary election actually voted for Donald Trump So there is some crossover between trump trump people who support at least back then people who supported trump and who supported centers. If you think about it it kind of makes sense. Because their their message to both was blow the whole thing up ultra ultra trump wanted to use dynamite and Bernie Sanders wanted to use a missile. But they both basically so we need to blow everything up in Washington and started art. And you wouldn't call trump a socialist when he was running back in two thousand sixteen so it's interesting that Bernie Sanders being so to the left that his voters would actually jump ship and jump parties and go over trump. It I mean it is But these are the sort of common ground is that these are these. These are people who just think the current system system is totally broken. And it's not working for them and they don't care if the system gets blown up. I think that is a a theme among trump's supporters. For sure they they feel the system's. It's not working for them and they don't care if you know all the traditional ways of doing things trump trump just tears them down one after the other because I don't think they're working and some Bernie Sanders supporters. Feel that way again these are polls. How would people actually? How will this actually play out in? You know when you have real elections with real people When you know if Bernie Sanders and Donald trump half the debate each other and so forth but this is just a this? Is The nightmare scenario. That is the reason Mike Bloomberg got into the race It is I think a Lotta di sort of establishment. Democrats are trying to figure out how can we what can we do to undermine Bernie Sanders. But they can't they can't can't undermine Bernie Sanders making me think of the twenty sixteen election right. Sanders was gaining traction on Hillary Clinton and many in his camp said that the DNC stole the election. From I'm from Sanders and that maybe some underhanded stuff went on right So it's not clear that that actually happened but it is clear that in two thousand Sixteen Eighteen Hillary Clinton was the Democratic Party. I mean or the Clinton machine you machine. Yeah I mean they sort of an it does seem pretty clear. They had had More influence than they probably should have on the Democratic National Committee. And I guess it's I I. I'm not sure there's any evidence that this actually hurt Bernie Sanders in any way but but I it is possible and there were some allegations that in some of the primary elections the DNC sort of put put fingers on the Scales and did some things perhaps to keep some mm sanders voters from voting or to somehow minimize the Sanders. Vote I again. I don't know if that's true or not but sanders supporters felt aggrieved and There was some evidence in the some of the emails that came out that the DNC did favor At least you know the people who ran the DNC were mainly Clinton people people and So that in that regard at least there was a preference at the DNC for Clinton over Sanders And by the way I mean there are some Democrats who say Bray. Sanders isn't even a Democrat. I mean he's technically he's an independent. I mean so in Congress His he lists his affiliation as independent although he does vote with Democrats for the most part So he's part of the Democratic Coalition in the Senate and of course he's running as a Democrat Pratt but he calls himself a democratic socialist. I mean there is no democratic Socialist Party so You know what he is he. He's an iconic lost and he's an interloper and he pisses people off the same way he gets a lot of people. Firing have helped the Democrats had he run as an independent would that would that be. The Democrat Party is absolutely right. That would be. The party's wish but he has filed the paperwork and played by the rules as a Democrat which which of course means that I mean he's a major party candidate candidate. He participates in the democratic debates and all the other visibility that being a Democrat gets for you and He is a phenomenon that nobody knows what to do with. I Ju I'm just I just want to close at this point. Sorry to interrupt but So if the the problem for Democrats is if there's any hint or any belief chiefs the Party kneecaps Bernie Sanders just to get him out of the way I mean the Bernie Sanders Wing will revolt and the Democrats need some of those votes so so we talked about that the ten percent or so of Bernie Sanders supporters who voted for trump. That's a lot of votes. It is so I mean during the election in two thousand sixteen swung on far fewer than ten megabytes. Ten percent of you know getting ten percent of any coalition could be the margin of difference margin of victory or defeat in the swing states that are going to be close when they're going to decide the election and now I'm he is I I guess of all those those left standing. Is he the most centrist to you and has he peaked too soon here. Well you're saying that Bernie has oft Biden and Oft Oft Warren. Oh goodness I'm not sure. Joe Biden is still I mean if we if If this were better doll I might put him down on one knee. Actually I'M NOT GONNA. I'M NOT GONNA put Joe Biden fully on his back and I think Elizabeth Warren is probably closer. Her campaign is probably closer to dead so Biden is you know. It's still the case. That Biden does much much better with black and minority voters And of course the early voting states are pretty sure they don't look like America. They're overwhelmingly white states. Nevada and South Carolina are different But so People to judge is doing well in the early states but I think he remains. Excuse me I think he remains a an underdog because is It's not clear that he'll do nearly as well. In for example the Super Tuesday states. That's I think that's fourteen states if I'm getting a number wrong excuse me. It's either twelve or fourteen states on Super Tuesday which is March third And by the way that's when we're really going to know the direction of this race but He has done great eight in the You know in the first couple of states He obvious I mean He. Essentially one Iowa. I mean it was basically. It was kind of a tie but You know give him the nod. I think he won by a tenth of a point. I don't even understand how they count votes in Iowa. Nobody does It's Voodoo math a week to get us the could we just how Iowa needs to go away. Can we get Iowa around to change the way. The minimum change mentioned alerts at this is a nightmare scenario. That sanders is so far ahead. It's also a nightmare. Scenario for Wall Street because Democrats. It's a it's a dream come true for trump trump. I mean we know we know. We're trump stands on this. He's been trying to smear biden all along. He's actually still trying to smear Biden with by planting rumors that the Justice Department might happy doing an investigation but frankly disgusting I mean. Trump is using the machinery of government to kick continue to smear Joe Biden But he's kind of getting his way probably without without any of that so I'm trump wants to run against center you can just you can tell from his tweets you can tell from the reporting inside the campaign that is a dream match for Republicans and would that be a dream matchup for investors investors. Because perhaps they would because we've talked to a lot of market strategist an economist who say oh a sanders win would mean a big excel off for the stock market and could this actually the work in there in an investor's way because sanders trump ticket well not ticket but if trump yeah that he would he would be. Yeah there..