Listen: Boeing, Airbus, Max Max Shung discussed on Aviation Week's Check 6 Podcast
"Welcome to the third and final. Check six PODCASTS. From the Dubai show my name is against Flato. I'm the executive editor Commercial Aviation of Aviation Week Network and with me three of my colleagues defense editor Steve. A Steve Trimble Trimble. Yeah Steve Yes. European defense editor Tony Osborne and our editor for safety net transport based in Washington Shawn Product. Guys third day here at the show. Big News start with defense. What did we learn yes? It was a very exciting day here in the UAE because they pulled out a dust covered wallets and purchase an Dan covering sense uncomfortable. Okay so four years ago. We had the launch of the globe light reconnaissance aircraft were Edwin early warning aircraft. So that's now here at the show. And then today they announced buying two more on top of the free they already had on order so that was significant news site that was a well when its funding negotiated. When it's all said and done it'll be about a billion dollars and then also a surprise to many of us? They ordered three three Airbus. MIT tanker transports based on on top of the free. They already had so. That's pretty significant for a small air force now to have five airborne early warning aircraft and six tankers. So there's there's pretty good news for both Airbus and Saban in that respect. So the MIT multi orders. Yet to be finalized it's considered a selection but basically brings another ticking the box for the thirty. Mit over the Casey Seve forty-six so they already had selected the three thirty Mortiz. So it's it's reasonable that we would have expected them to just do a follow. On order however Boeing back in May the Shangri la dialogue one of their executives said that he expects me to select the Casey forty six for the second batch. But what would liquor for mixed fleet with the few was. That's that's a really good question. And it doesn't quite make sense from an economic perspective however the U. E. has a reputation for or diversifying its fleet. So it's not beholden to a single country or government for defense equipment. So that's why they have barraged two thousand nine and F16's for example but they do this in a lot of other categories of equipment as well so it wouldn't it wouldn't have seemed absurd for the UAE to select Boeing Anna Casey forty cents in addition to the three thirty. Rt and when the Boeing executive confirmed that they were interested in it created. I think something of an expectation that he wouldn't have said that unless he had a really you yeah Strong confidence that they were actually going to select it rather than risk the embarrassment of being publicly rejected or something that nobody knew it was a competition in the first place to title. That is what happened today so Airbus will go back to Europe with another selection for the eight three thirty. MRT in their pocket which is a big deal for them. And that's a significant solves while I mean can this considerable risk in developing this platform. And the yeah I think a follow on order even before the aircraft entered service. which is June spring is is pretty significant deal now so Kudos to play freely and on the civil side Somewhat unexpected. We did see quite a lot of activity in terms of Max Max Shung and what happens. Yeah yesterday the Max was the highlight yesterday. At least on the on the Boeing side with with Sun Express converting ten ten options. Boeing woke up today and said he said I'm GonNa hold my own beer watch this and they announced a letter of intent for thirty Max from astonished and We confirmed a firm order for twenty more taxes from undisclosed customer that is going to unveil itself on its own terms in the next couple of months so that adds twenty firm potential fifty. Max this is to a backlog that that was dwindling. Even though Boeing hasn't been delivering the airplanes since March ad in the ten from yesterday and that's plus sixty see that's potentially if they're all you know if if these the orders are finalize but to announce a second for mortar in two days for an airplane saying that we don't have to tell you is under tremendous scrutiny. I think it is interesting in an airplane. We mentioned before they didn't even put it on their stand as one of the models also in such thing. But do you think that this is kind of a part of Boeing's strategy for you know ahead of the resumption Russian of Max deliveries expected for sometime early next year at the early indicator here I think you I think you have to assume that. They are looking to build credibility in the best way to build credibility in his business and that's lining up customers Both of new customers in astonishment of former seven three operator but not a current. Seven operator carring Boeing customer but as Tony pointed out in the in the ramp up to the podcast also a loyal Airbus customer now these airplanes narrowbody customer these are playing. Toby operated by their low cost subsidiary but still part of the family and a big endorsement. It seems though Boeing is not going to they they they may not be applying pressure to get the airplane back. Certified as somewhere saying they were with announcing notional timelines. It's at the La over the last few months but they are now trying to let the markets and say. Hey we believe in this airplane. It's certainly there's no downside downside for them to be announcing commitments at this point. It's only isn't it a bit earlier or is it okay. Well I think some of lined up with the show. Let's not overlook the fact that this was announcing a major air show so I think the two things sort of sort of came together. None of these airplanes will be in service for several years right because of the backlog in the fact that they're Boeing's backlog is now growing because they're not delivering airplanes certification appears to be imminent. Probably too strong a word but at approval in two thousand nineteen by by the FAA. Still not off the table. Nobody's going to have the airplane and service before well into the first quarter and most of these that we're talking about these countries you you may not see it until the second quarter and and it'd be interesting tomorrow when the FAA administrator is here at the show and talks to reporters Tomorrow morning so we'll it'd be trying to get an update Rain all that then. FAA's been consistent that they are. They will not improve the airplane until it is ready. It is not ready. Boeing is not by all accounts handed over the final package. Documenting software changes. The training still needs to be updated. They're still a public comment period on it. I mean there's work to do but Boeing announcing these these orders and commitments at the show. You know clearly they have customers that are confident. Even if they're giving away the airplanes the fact that customers are putting their name to insane we will take more there some expression of confidence there the other question on this on the civil side with the the the big revisions John Nearing on the Emirates fleet. We as as of today. We only have kind of path part of the answer which is on the site Obviously emerets emerets ordering fifty eight three fifties as they seek to re image change and replace the three eighty or other is no longer. You're going to be delivered. The Boeing side of things is still not decided or at least not publicly announced that will happen on Thursday. They have scheduled a press conference for the for the for the morning. And we all expect some clarification. There I did have a chance to talk to Tim. Clark of the president of airline today and what I found most interesting was his vision for the next five years in terms of growth. They're not growing very strongly right now because of the economic troubles because of all the stuff that's going on but the the three fifty's will come in from twenty anti twenty-three and that will kick off a real change in their network because suddenly they can go into much thinner long-haul routes and also ultra-long-haul the routes that they couldn't really serve the eighty because it was too big triple seven because it was too big or couldn't didn't have range so stay stay tuned but is going to change significantly and it'll get into markets. Say at least that has haven't I've been touched so far so other people that have not been in a position to have to compete with them will be in the future if they stick to this and I'm very curious."