Lamar Jackson, Steelers, Ravens discussed on Behind the Bets

Behind the Bets


I know they're already there in the playoff mix. But they're among the contenders now in the AFC. Well you mentioned the double digit comeback by the ravens. It's now their third double digit comeback of the year, most of the NFL, we used to always talk about the ravens as a front running team with Lamar Jackson and you want to get them ahead. They want to run the ball. They had never come back for double digits down before the season. And now they've done it three times this year. So Lamar Jackson clearly is making some strides in the passing game. Today he kind of dominate in the short passing game as opposed to the big deep balls to Mark Lee's brand like he had been doing in the past. The ravens nearly pulled an urban Meyer today going nearly 250 yards rushing in two 50 yards passing, so they almost got that done. Call that the urban Meyer. Well, that's what he wanted to do. That's what he said. Quote, but every Vikings game, though, seems to come right down to the final play. They've had 7 one score games this year. They've had 5 one score losses this season. I mean, I was on Minnesota in that game. I was talking about 6. I was surprised I went up to 7, but I'm just going to take Minnesota and if I'm getting over a field goal, I'm going to take them unless they're playing a really good team or in a really bad spot because every Minnesota game comes right down to the wire and it's Greg Joseph kept lining up for a go ahead field goal or it's whoever they're playing lining up for a go ahead field goal every game comes right down to the wire of Minnesota. All right, that covers the Sunday card Monday night. I mean, it's ridiculous. The spread with the total, right? You had 6 and a half and 39. It's up to 7 and 39. I can't lay 7. I don't want 7 either. These are the types of games the bears win, though. I will say that steelers tend to win as a dog. Choke this one away. I haven't feeling steelers win this by three late or an overtime kind of like that Sunday Night game against Seattle. Yeah, to me, this is a dog or pass kind of game. You can't. It's hard to justify laying 7 points with the Steelers, though. If you tell me that Justin Fields one of the worst games all season by a quarterback on the Steelers win 27 to three, I wouldn't be that surprised by that either. The total in this game is 39 right now, which would tie the lowest of the season. The Texans patriots game for a few weeks back also was 39. So low total expecter than that game. I don't really have a strong lead, though. Yeah, my only play is first half under. I think both teams and it's crazy saying this about Big Ben, but are going to protect their quarterbacks and be pretty vanilla. I say it all the time in defense and matchup. If they want to wait for the other team to make the mistake, lean on your defense. And then sometimes in the second half, things get crazy, right? There's a going forward around midfield on fourth down or pressing a quarterback throws into double coverage when they're down ten, you get a pick 6 or short field for the other team's offense after a turnover. That's why I like to go first half unders when it's a low low number. And if you want the first quarter under, the first quarter unders at 7, so a really low first quarter under in this game. I gave out under 7 and a half in the air force army game. I was like, wow, you really only need one punt. I think it was zero zero until the second half. But do you just blind bet the unders and service academy games when they're playing other sports academies? That is the best trend in college football. But it's a fascinating topic because obviously the units are scoring in football are three and 7, and there's no sense of urgency at the end of the first and third quarters. So when you get the hook, do they make the juice right? So if it's 7 and a half versus 6 and a half, is the juice accurate enough given the likelihood how slow those tempos are and how they just will grind on the ground. And the fact that the defenses are used to facing that type of offense in practice as opposed to other teams on their schedule. Yeah, no, it's definitely a fascinating topic in terms of which is better than a quarter price for letting a half price. I haven't dug too deep into which one's better. I always like getting the quarter prices because I'm with you. I like, you know, the teams aren't motivated to score at the end of the first or third, but you're also going to get low number lower numbers doing it that way. So it's a little bit of a given to take. Yeah, one freak play. Well, I'm going first half of the Steelers, bears game, have some fun with it nothing too crazy. But great stuff is always McKenzie, always good. You're always have awesome awesome notes and research done for these podcasts and I know our listeners greatly appreciate it. And he notes that we left out in terms of put a bow on this week 9 Sunday. Well, one thing I mentioned earlier was the MVP race, I kind of want to touch on. So if you look at the 6 MVP favorites entering this week, Josh Allen was a three to one favorite. He lost the Jaguars and throw a touchdown pass. Kyler Murray was second at 5 to one. He didn't play because of an injury. Tom Brady was third at plus 5 50. He didn't play because of bio week. He's the only one who stock didn't follow this week. Matthew Stafford struggled and lost the Titans and losses and upset. Dak Prescott was plus 7 50. They lost to Denver. He didn't complete half his passes, and Aaron Rodgers didn't play due to COVID. So pretty much all the favorites for MVP fell apart this week, so we mentioned it a little bit earlier, but I would imagine that Tom Brady is probably the favorite going in the next week. And they're scheduled gets easier in November December. Now, obviously things can change. We thought the bills would have an easy schedule going into Jacksonville. So anything can happen, but it is going to be really interesting to see how it all plays out because the NC was so stacked with one loss teams, obviously that's not the case anymore after the rams..

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