International Monetary Fund, Brexit, United States discussed on Marketplace
Your long everybody, we begin on this Tuesday with a restatement of our every now and then observation that this is a global economy, and we are kind of stuck with it. Come. What may and when what is coming is generally good rising growth in economic optimism. Good fine. When what's coming is less growth in some small degree of economic pessimism. Well, you got to play the Andrew del right? And the global economic hand we are being dealt today comes to us from the International Monetary Fund. IMF get it which is out with its latest forecast on the global economy growth. Yes. But less of it the IMF third forecast of slower growth in six months. He took over not is the chief economist for the doctor welcome to the program. Thank you, you called the global economy this morning and some of your commentary. You said we're at a delicate moment how come why said global growth is projected to slow down to three point three percent in twenty nineteen and we expected coveting twenty twenty and you know, that covers precarious so that's the sense in which this is delicate moment because if any of the downside that we worry about materialize. Now, the recovery that we're expecting a may not come about. Okay. Why are you expecting covering if it's if it's precarious seems like a gutsy call them make well, we certainly seen as a substantial amount of policy combination around the world. I mean, all of the major central banks have shifted to a more accommodative stands we've seen China. Putin a fair amount of fiscal and monetary stimulus. We certainly seeing some improvement in trade tensions between the US and China at least compared to twenty eighteen so all of those factors, you know, would help a growth going forward, and we expect. See some recovery's and stressed economies that Tina Turkey. So that's where I focused is coming from show. We've got low rates the accommodative policy that you mentioned, but we do still have the specter of a no deal, Brexit or whatever's going to happen over there. We have ongoing U S China trade talks, which again who knows what's gonna happen over there. Get me, then to your to your downside risk that you mentioned. I mean, I'm unavo- main downside risk remains an escalating intrigue tensions, you know. Maybe with other countries in other sectors like autos, a we would like to see a resolution of Brexit with an agreement. That's not a audio Brexit. I mean, these would be some of the important policy missteps to be avoided. Let me get a little more specific. Are you talking American trade policy movement here we are talking about? Yes of eating the US China trade tensions weaken growth weakened investments. Reduced business confidence. So the question is what happens going forward from the US side from any retaliation. Which is why we you know, we say that this is a delicate moment and is important for policy makers to avoid missteps, let me just ask since you mentioned central banks and listeners will hear elsewhere in the program about about the impedance of central banks. And since you led with it in your answer. How critical are central banks and the proper functioning of to the to the future health of global economy. I mean, central Bank policies vase is taken recently the independence of the central Bank are all hugely important for the health of the global economy. They played an important role in reducing downside risks that were showing up towards the end of twenty eighteen and so it is important that they remain independence remain data driven and the the policies are well communicated. So you've been on the job since the first of January, how're you liking it so far it's been it's been a lot of fun. Great. Doc to choose the new ish chief economist at the International Monetary Fund out with your global forecast this morning, thanks for your time. I appreciate it. Thank you so much. She mentioned a no deal Brexit, by the way, without getting into the current state of play over in the UK because frankly, one loses track US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said this today in congressional testimony, quote, I think at this point secretary said we need to be prepared for a hard Brexit as a very realistic outcome, and of quote, hard Brexit, of course, is a no deal Brexit again. Who knows what the what over there on Wall Street today? Honestly kinda man nobody was really wild about that IMF forecast. We'll have the details when we do the numbers..