Romain Bostick, Tim Stenbeck, Carol Massar discussed on Bloomberg Businessweek


This is Bloomberg markets to close about an hour left here in the trading day on this Thursday afternoon Romain bostick alongside Tim stenbeck and Carol massar. We had a two day decline here that a lot of people questioning the Santa Claus rally on almost 2% rally here on the S&P on this Thursday afternoon giving a little bit of credence here to some of the dip buying behavior that has started to twinkle up in this market over the past few days. Broad based we've talked about it, right? But it's getting pretty quiet. It's been quite all week here, but nonetheless, nice to see a little bit of green certainly for those bulls out there. And you really, as we said, pick your name. It feels like investors are willing to take on some risk today. I was looking through just some of the sectors. I mean, you take a look at the IGB, which covers the software sector up about 3% here on the day. But then you go through some of the names. You talk about the big rebound in Tesla, which was up as much as 10% on the day. I think only up now. 6% here. Oh, it's still one of the worst performance on a year to date basis. And you have Netflix, which I had one of the worst first half that has had in a while, but in the second half of the year here, I think it's something like the third or fourth best performing stock in the S&P 500 up about 5% here on the day. And I think you brought this stock up a little bit earlier, was Cal main foods, big maker of eggs. If you buy eggs, you're probably buying it from them, even though it's not branded as Cal main. And I thought some of their commentary about feed costs and those input costs was quite telling. I even saw people tweeting about egg prices this morning on Twitter. But there could be some good news. Those prices could be coming down as a result of the avian flu outbreak, not being as apparent as it was a few months ago, but the feed price is still a big concern those inputs, the inflation story is here to stay. And this is going to be a big topic of debate as we head into 2023, even if you do have this certain degree of moderation as to what's going on. At some point, you get to that level where, well, not everything is necessarily moderating, right? Right, exactly. I don't know. Every time I feel like I pay for something, it's certainly feels pretty high. The other thing we should point out is we get ready to talk a little bit more about the U.S. economy is U.S. jobless claims that we got today, right? They rose slightly, but still near historic lows, which is to some maybe which is why we've got this rally underway that people are saying maybe maybe growth won't take such a hit when it comes to the U.S. economy. Could we see that soft landing? All right, let's talk a little bit more about the economy and economic conditions. We just had a wonderful guest in Stephanie kelton. And we said, who can we get on to actually top her? Peter atwater joining us right now. Adjunct Professor of economics over there. No pressure. It's also president of financial insights and consulting firm that advises institutional investors and really those titles. I don't do him justice. I mean, we talk about just sort of all the progress that's been made over the last few years and the study of behavioral economics and social psychology when it comes to the markets and Peter atwater's name comes up time and time again in that research and dialog, Peter. We talk about recessions. We talk about the economy. It's been said before that the economy really isn't a number. It is a feeling. And if a lot of people out there are looking at the egg prices in the store, looking at other things at the store, even if their wages are going up, even if everyone says, there will be no recession. If they feel like things are bad, things are going to be bad, right? Yeah, the economy just mirrors our mood. And it's a lagging indicator from my perspective. We act as we feel. And you really saw that earlier this year with gas prices. I mean, you talk about a super villain as far as sentiment. And the connection between gas prices and consumer confidence this year has been spectacular. I mean, you could really see the pain at the pump weighing on consumer sentiment. It's interesting, Peter, because when we've spoken about inflation over the last year, we oftentimes talk about how it hurts people at the bottom and lower ends of the income spectrum the most. They certainly feel it more because more of their disposable income. Does go to these discretionary costs or these non discretionary costs. But you argue in your commentary that in 2023, we could actually see a crumbling in luxury, a crumbling at the high end, and that people couldn't see it coming. What are you talking about here? Yeah, so when I look across the economy in terms of sentiment, what strikes me as a retrospective on 2022 is that those at the top seem to be immune from all of the pain that was being felt by those at the bottom. Food inflation, energy inflation. Those are the top just sort of shook it off. And what you've seen is this immense overbuilding and oversupply to cater to those at the top is if this golden era of wealth is going to go on forever. And that typically is a sign of trouble when you have this extrapolation of euphoria that seems to be everywhere, whether it's on billionaires row in Manhattan or across Miami in travel. It seems to be saturating the supply chain for those at the top

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