New Mexico, Mexico, Professor discussed on Richard Eeds
His 87 degrees in Santa Fe 50% chance of rain, which would be splendid. We're visiting with Dr James Peach, who is professor emeritus of economics in New Mexico State University, and he's down in Los Cruise. His words like 1000 degrees in and zero chance of rain down there, But you know that's where he chooses to live, you know? You can't force him to move. And and thank you for your time today, Professor. We really, really do appreciate now part of the Presentation yesterday to the jealousy. I was talking about how our economy is going to change. I don't want to be a fear monger, but I want to tell people to be prepared. Be prepared. First of all, don't get sick. Don't have to go to the hospital right now, especially in Albuquerque. Also Get a job because the $600 a week is going to go away in a couple of weeks. No, no great hurry by the Congress to bring it back, so I don't want to be a fear monger, but I want to warn people and prepare people. So what's it going to look like? In the future? We'll just talk when Mayor Sanchez up in in Espanola. About this, and he said, You know, the big boxes the You know the big boys you're going going to do better and the small businesses. You're going to get hurt. What is your evaluation? Uh, this downturn in New Mexico this This time. We've lost nearly 100,000 jobs. And that's about twice as many as we lost a great recession on the starting December of seven. And It took us a decade to get back to that many jobs. After the great recession and we've got to make up twice of men. We've got a hard task and one of us What's it going to look like? On the other side? Down. We're never going back to a pre coded economy. You just can't do that. Some things are not reversible. But, um, retail trade in general Uh, was not doing well before this started. In January of this year, we had 1000 fewer retail trade employees. And we did 20 years early. And that's in New Mexico and We've lost about eight or 9000 retail trade jobs, and many of those jobs will not come back. They will simply not come back in your collection. The big box stores. And online. Ah, better prepared than most wall businesses. Um To survive something like this. And if you if you think about A and independently owned restaurant or retail business of almost any sort. You couldn't survive that. Well, you've got to have cash on hand, and most of those businesses operated the margin anyway. They need the revenue every single month. Uh, I noticed this morning the Chamber of Commerce of the United States. Uh, asked For yet another coded released bill from Congress and one of the things not the only thing, but one of the things that they asked for, was to target small business with some aid. Small businesses are less likely to have cash on they're less likely to have a good credit record long history with the bank. There It is, just that's really, really tough. And there is no simple solution. The state has a member of programs that can help out really But Some of those businesses were going to be gone. One encouraging thing that secretary Keys from economic Development, said yesterday she's been dragging bankruptcies, right and and in New Mexico. We just haven't seen Ah huge increase and bankruptcies. You know, professor and and I want to get back to something else and Secretary Key said. We tend to lag behind you. Do you agreed in the Federal Reserve? I think our district is out of Kansas City. They typically say worked a couple of years behind Go into recession in Mexico. A couple of years late coming out. Do you agree with that? Well way were a couple of years. Not years were many months behind when we Had the downturn and no Asian nine to go into it. Right, and, um, but it took the US came out of that right fairly quickly. But in New Mexico we were one of the last states to regain our level employment. It took us a decade. So it's not just a couple of years behind. It's a long time. And part of that. We don't turn down as quickly as other states because we have a high concentration of government employment. Exactly, And that adds stability to the economy. People complain about government, but it s handsome stability to what's going on here? Yeah. Ah! This is ah, clearly more serious. Nationally and in Mexico that the downturn in a way to know night by several factors Secretary He's also said yesterday that in this environment and we see this, with probably individuals and families living in cities they want to get the heck out of cities because they see this pandemic. You know the concentration of people and health care and cities in all that driving people back to the suburbs, and she says. We're seeing along a lot of activity of mid sized companies looking at well, It's not going to New York. Let's not go to Texas. Let's not go to Florida. Let's not go to California. Let's look at a place like New Mexico. Would that help? Absolutely. And there will be a lot of that will be a lot of changes in the big cities. There's going to be an increase in the demand for automobiles. People are going to be reluctant to go back to public transportation. No question There's gonna be an increase in the man already is the demand for housing in the suburbs as opposed to living in a Funny story apartment walk up. And New Mexico is a very attractive or OK, A lot of reasons like that. This really is the land of its support of that recovery. When we look at oil and gas, not coming back, and we've you know, been saying for For forever. We need to diversify. We don't know what that means on, I ask leadership, and they're like, kind of scratched her hand. They, you know, throw out, well, film and and and renewable energy and some of those thing film is going to be it will come back. The man will be there, but we'll come back in a different way. A different form. Different platforms may be no more screens and theaters. But you know, we'll do this. Well, you and I are zooming right now that this is the future. Um So so some of those things that that we need to diversify to do you have other ideas? I mean, some people throw out legalized.