FED, Victoria Wood, China discussed on Chappelwood Financial with Victoria Woods
Host. They call me the financial David. My name is Victoria Wood's in the studio as always with Mr. Damon king and our vice president of security, our mascot, that's Reno. So when you hear the little jingle jingle jingle. That's our buddy in our pal in our boy reindeer. You know, the word Rino Rando Spanish for reindeer. Did you know that? Reno's name in Spanish means running gear. I did not know that. Well, let's get information have now if you're looking for this second opinion, you're over fifty five maybe you're close to retirement over maybe you were already retired gave Shelley Mayer call right here at our office. She will share with you are very unique processes, so you too can rock your retirement. Call four five three four eight zero nine zero nine that's three four eight zero nine zero nine. There is no doubt that volatility has returned to the real world market this year. And if you haven't noticed good job, you haven't been sucked into what everybody else's sucked into and that is self destruction are self sabotage. Because that's what happens watching your 4._0._1._K everyday. If you haven't been sucked into that good job. Now saying that volatility has returned is a little misleading twenty seventeen was not normal. And let's be honest. We got a little spoiled rotten. This is the real world. What you want to understand is? That volatility has always been always will be part of being an investor. What you're saying? Now is just normal last year not normal this year, very normal. But it still can be a little scary. It's can be frustrating. It can be confusing because let's let's be honest. You know, doesn't feel good. Now. Today's show we're going to share three key reasons. Why volatility has picked up because knowledge is power and knowing it was like, okay. This makes sense to me. It's just not the market doesn't like me. No, everybody. How are we reacting to this volatility in this streak in that s? I mean, that's us. How are we reacted to that? And why we think the next recession could be another eighteen maybe twenty four months away last, but not least five tips for recession proofing, your retirement portfolio. So you don't get a stress you don't do dumb things during this multi volatile time, so Victoria, let's talk about what exactly has happened this year. So we were coming off a record setting twenty seventeen you just mentioned it. In fact, it was so record-setting not one month during last year had a losing month for the S and P five hundred that's an anomaly that doesn't happen because it's never happened. It was the first time in our history. Nations history that had ever happened. So, you know, moving into two thousand eighteen there really wasn't anywhere to go. But down. When you're on top of Mount Everest. There aren't too many other higher places to go on land. So that's why you know on on Q almost at the beginning of January late January this year. We saw ten percent market correction. We were fat and happy at the end of two thousand seventeen came back down to earth at the beginning of this year. And then after that we had a period of pretty decent growth all the way through September thirtieth. So you open your statements on September thirtieth and you're thinking, oh, wow. The world is looking great. I'll right and in October happens and October's typically called the cruelest month. The hawks over historically has been a bad month for the market, and we saw another normal. Yeah. Normal normal. We saw another ten percent correction in October. And since then and here we are in just a couple of weeks from Christmas and the markets has been bouncing around wildly trying to figure out what to do with it. So yes. Five hundred points down in under points. I mean, it's like the spoiled child. I don't know what I want for Christmas. I don't know if I'm going to be nicer naughty. I'm just that's exactly right wild mood swings for the market for the year, the S and P five hundred is down one point three eight percent now considering everything that's been going on. That's really not that bad. But here's the problem. Most of you listening have assets that are outside the S and P five hundred five hundred chart tracks only five hundred stocks, and they are large US companies. Now, if that's all you have then okay? You're going to be down one point three eight percent for the year. But most of you are more diversified than that are you should be. You should you've got mid- and small-sized companies. We've there's another index called the Russell two thousand index that tracks mostly smaller and mid sized companies. Well, let's down almost six percent year to date. All right. Then you got international stocks. Those index indexes are down sixteen percent for the year. You've also probably got. Bonds, particularly if you're closer to retirement, and so many of our clients do because they are either in retirement close to retirement. Some you're going to be more conservative twenty. You're not thirty anymore. You need to do a better job of protecting the assets that you have no work so hard to save. So if you've got bonds, well, you've probably been hammered because interest rates have gone up and when rates go up bond values, go down. So if you're looking at your account statement right now, and you're wondering why have I lost so much more than the S and P five hundred. Well, it's because you're taking that risk. Right. Well in your more diversified on you, you're more diversified than the S and P five hundred which generally seven times out of ten is the best thing to do. It. Just happens that this year diversifying outside the S and P five hundred has hurt. Exactly. But you've got to do it. Yes. Timing the market. Have you tried to time it you're gonna lose every time long-term now, that's what has happened. Now. Why has it happened? Because as we said earlier knowing why it hap-. Is going to give you confidence and help you understand. So first of all there's three factors that have caused by Tila t to just ramp up this year. Okay. Number one. And it's always the same thing. It's fear of increasing inflation this is what caused the correction at the start of the year. What happened is in people? It's going to continue because the fed loves to come out in scare everybody and say, okay, we're going to have a meeting and in this meeting. Our anticipation is we're going to raise before it ever happens. They're out there. Putting? Scaremongering you to death out there. So the thing is is that's the number one thing inflation has actually come down a bit to just below two percent. That's so bad. Yeah. Not bad at all. So number two. It's always that same thing as well. And that's geopolitical fears. They think we're gonna investors out there are scared to death because I listened to the media's well, and they're scared about China, a war with China, the midterm elections feared people still are actually the fears over still we're talking about Russia and North Korea. This had been hanging over a head. It seems like for two years at least. But it's for sure this year, it's constant barrage of this kind of scare tactics that keep people emotional number three fears over the rising interest rates. No interest rates are going up and at their December meeting as I just said, we fully expect the fed to raise rates and raise it about a quarter. Of a point. Because that's what they've been doing the fear is that the fed will raise rights too high too quickly. And that's really what the market does not like, the we're going to share with you the reasons for optimism knowing the facts, it's the fundamentals. I've always said when people have facts, they comes their fear and their their confidence comes back because it's like, oh, it's not that bad when you point out that it's one percent. But that's if you're in the S and P five hundred if you're properly diversified. Yes. It should be more than that. But you have what we call that risk tolerance. And it it tests you as an investor what can I really stomach, and it all depends on typically, what age you are in what process are, you know, where are you in the the flow of things M I accumulating am I trying to preserve or am? I in distribution those three things, and it it depends on your age. It depends on your income. It depends on your health. It depends on what phase you're in. Well in the bottom line is you should never base your total retirement philosophy off of just one year. Not not one year when the market zooming like last year and not one year when the market is down like it is this year, and when the market is acting like this, it seems like there's nowhere to go for safety. In fact, most of the sectors of the S and P five hundred and the bonds there really wasn't a where to go. There has been no where to go for safety. And it's at times like this that you need a partner that can help you stay focused on the big picture that is if you are within ten years of retirement plate or you're retired already chapel would financial can help you stay disciplined. Restore order and control that you may be feel you've lost. And that's why we have something that we want to offer you today. This always helps. Yeah. You've heard us say on this show. Many many many times it will continue to say this is that our focus on is on mid tier millionaires and our solutions work best for those mid tier millionaires. But we've also heard a stay that, you know, we know. That there are people out there that want to get to that millionaire status, and we want to help them do that and in doing so if you say at least five hundred thousand in investable assets, we are in a position now where we can help only two families per month going forward. So I would get in that pipeline pretty quickly so only two families per month. So if you saved at least are, you know, someone who is saved at least five hundred thousand for retirement, and they're not confident ensure that they're in the best place. They can be give us a call in the next fifteen minutes at four zero five three four eight zero nine zero nine that's four zero five three four eight zero nine nine get that second opinion have the confidence that our clients hat. Shelly. My our director of client services, she'll be happy to explain to. You are unique processes in what it takes to get that initial consultation. So that you can have a review and know that you've done everything you possibly can correctly, and to speak to the fact that you know, we can only hope those families per month were already booking. Appointments into next year. Folks, we filled up our calendar through the end of the year. So we're not taking any new appointments beyond scheduled for the end of the year. So we'll have to be the first part of January, but you want to call now to get that scheduled because you know, we need some information from some point we're coming up next. We're gonna share how we are reacting. That's Champa wouldn't financial reacting to the current market temper tantrum. And it might not be what you expect. You're listening to it's all about the money. It used to be okay.