FED, Alex Krueger, Gemini discussed on CoinDesk Podcast Network
Of hours, as I was working on the show, the situation with Gemini seemed to get worse. Numerous commentators noticed that it wasn't just earned but the entire exchange that seemed to be down. There were outages across the web UI, the mobile app that earned program the exchange trading engine, numerous APIs, and more. However, according to the latest tweet from Gemini, it was all about AWS. Quote, we experienced an Amazon Web Services EBS outage with one of our primary databases. We have restored the database and are bringing the exchange back up. Alex Krueger gives probably what's the simplest explanation saying, guessing Gemini withdrawals not working at the moment because Gemini earn got shut down due to genesis lending, leading everyone to withdraw at the same time, equals website issues. Either way, please DYOR if you have your funds in Gemini. Now obviously we will continue to keep an eye on this, but in the meantime, it is probably a good time to withdraw your assets to self custody if you haven't done so already. Now with that let's shift to some of those macro stories that I mentioned we haven't had a chance to cover. And to be clear, there's not necessarily a theme here just the latest things that are important to note. Let's start with the CPI. One of the biggest pieces of news that got blown out of the water last week by Sam and FTX was the inflation print coming in at 7.7%. Pretty significantly under what was expected. This was a major driver of the equities rally that led to the most significant divergence between Bitcoin and risk equities in the last few years. Unfortunately, the inflation data may not be as good as it seems. A quirk in the CPI data has been causing a lot of discussion among financial Twitter. Last month's inflation data showed a 4% reduction in health insurance costs, but as a result of the annual adjustment from the bureau of labor statistics. While the reduction in headline inflation two 7.7% was a welcome change of pace, some were questioning whether the data could really be viewed as a turning point for inflation, if a significant portion of the reduction is attributed to this one time adjustment. The change cut around 8 basis points from core inflation, which held steady from the previous month and would have risen without this adjustment. Health insurance costs did not just suddenly collapse in October, leaving more questions about how real this peak and inflation will prove to be. Matt Fielder, a senior fellow at brookings institution said, no today's health insurance CPI reading does not mean that premium self 4% in October. In fact, it's not really about premiums at all. It mostly reflects events that are over one year old. Jason Furman points out that lags are actually going in both directions right now. The professor at Harvard said lags and shelter now lead the measure to overstate spot core inflation by about 20 basis points. Health insurance is the opposite as of October because CPI shifted from 2020 to 2021 utilization. The subtracts around 8 basis points for core inflation and will for 11 more months. Now, in spite of this, obviously, equities markets have been doing really well. And what we've seen over and over again is that whenever the markets get out ahead of where the fed really thinks inflation is, they tend to send out speakers to tempt them back. On Monday, Federal Reserve governor Christopher Wallace did in fact push back on markets, saying that they had responded far too strongly to one favorable CPI report. Quote, the market seemed to get way, way out in front. I just can not stress this as one data point. We've still got a ways to go. He noted that so far, rate hikes have not broken anything, and that to see significant slowdown the fed would need to see consecutive positive data points, confirming that inflation was cooling off. That said, he did acknowledge that the fed would be considering a smaller 50 basis point hike at their December meeting. Now to the extent that the fed was trying to have Waller be hawkish later that day fed vice chair Lil brainard played the dove. She said quote, I think it will probably be appropriate soon to move to a slower pace of rate increases. Now she hedged a little by saying I think what's really important to emphasize is we've done a lot, but we have additional work to do on both raising rates and sustaining restraint to bring inflation down to 2% over time. With the dollar coming off its highs in the last week and equity market staging a significant rally, questions remain about whether the fed can maintain tight financial conditions as they begin to slow rate hikes. Brainard said quote, we have raised rates very rapidly, and we've been reducing the balance sheet. And you can see that in financial conditions, you can see that in inflation expectations, which are well anchored. Former fed trader Joseph Wang said, what surprised me most about brainard's interview was that she seemed to be open to cuts next year. When asked to point blank for potential cuts, she could have suggested higher for longer or no anticipation of cuts, but did not do so. Brent Johnson wrote, is there any doubt regarding the ongoing battle for control of the narrative between Powell and brainard? Still not everyone is convinced that we should be hopeful right now. Sergey perfilyev, a former Goldman Sachs quant said, much hopium in the markets right now. If fed pivots and starts easing before inflation is firmly lower, the risks of fed's credibility are substantial, especially following their hesitation in 2021. It may not be the risk they're willing to take. They need to prove themselves. Your intimate the director of global macro at fidelity said something similar. There was an instant reaction to the hopeful inflation report, he writes. But if financial conditions ease much further, it may well force the fed to throw cold water on the rally. I expect any cautious optimism from the fed to be tempered with ongoing hawkish talk. Now let's look at some specific sectors of the economy, a new study from the Dallas Federal Reserve found that the recent spike in mortgage rates could cause the U.S. property market to dump by 20%. The pessimistic scenario from the study had a drop of 15 to 20% in house prices, which could reduce inflation adjusted consumer spending by up to 0.7%. The research article entitled skimming U.S. housing froth a delicate daunting task showed that a reduction in consumer spending this large could harm the fed's ability to avoid a recession. The paper states such a negative wealth effect on aggregate demand would further restrain housing demand, deepening the price correction and setting in motion a negative feedback loop. The fed has of course raised interest rates 3.75 percentage points this year, which has driven the average U.S.