China, Seattle, New York discussed on The Editors
And it doesn't seem like an enormous difference. I think you know the the lockdown California's started a couple of days earlier than that in New York. Wh- what accounts for the disparity between this those two places in your view. Well they were late. They'll probably about a week behind California in terms of the actions that they took and a certain things that they didn't do that. Enclose subway system to blase was very reluctant to close the school system. I think relative to the country though they took pretty aggressive action When they did Sampson's go really lead on on the stay at home order anything when they did that. People were shocked by that people. Who weren't really cognizant of what was coming and in. New York did a number of days later not I think about four five days later. Maybe they announced Day or two later. I think what happened in New York. Probably if you look at Seattle Seattle's probably a better example. Seattle had a a large outbreak very clearly early. The first city really to be identified as having a large outbreak. They they were Very resistant to take any kind of medication steps. And we're getting a lot of criticism Fort They didn't close businesses. They didn't shut their transit. Date didn't require state homeowners And that was well before when we knew that there was even a community spreads. Cisco but what happened in Seattle probably and we know this now from Asia looking at the sequences of the strains in different people is Seattle. Probably had a single introduction sometime before the The travel restrictions will put in place from a traveler from China. 'cause you can sequence strain in now see where it's from any sequence strange of the other people and see where it's from. It's it seems to be the same strain. One large cluster eighty five percent of the infection. Seattle seems to be from one large cluster in the rest. Are you know travelers from Europe and elsewhere? So when that cluster hit? Let's say a thousand cases or fifteen hundred cases and it was expanding a star to throw off sparks. Sparks lit fires became visible the nursing. Home the young man who had the flu flu like symptoms and ended up being cost-wise all those early cases where sparks thrown off from that initial fire would probably happen in New York. Is New York? Some point in February didn't have a single introduction that ended up being a spark that litter flame it ended up it had probably dozens and dozens of simultaneous introductions. All the same time that all became sparks that lit separate fires and when all those fires hit five hundred cases six hundred cases then it became self evident across the entire city. By that time it was so heavily seated there was so many clusters expanding that it was too late. We don't know this for sure. But we're GONNA know this eventually by looking sequencing data that these probably our separate clusters. Seattle probably caught a break. In a way in that there they had one expanding cluster of managed to see that one expanding cluster they took interventions too late but they interventions early enough to deal with one large cluster versus other cities in the mid multiple clusters. Right so last thing on on this portion of our conversation you mentioned China. So what is your view? Obviously China's coming in with the for Getting beaten around the head and shoulders by a lot of folks especially folks on the right If China had been more honest and more transparent at the outset how much of a difference would have made In the spread of this disease or is just the nature of this disease That that was bounded to get out. Get loose around the world. One way or the other Look very critical of China's behavior in this before it became fashionable to criticize China's behavior analysis was over a period of time when everyone was bending over backwards to laud China seem to forget. That actually happened both. Us and international officials were saying congratulatory things about China's behavior. You think waking the president even president trump what was going on In the HELL secretary others. I think what was going on in the beginning was China is not being forthcoming with information. That could have helped us prepare so just a the most visible example is. They didn't make the virus available to anyone so in order to develop a diagnostic test. You need what's called a positive control you need. You need the virus itself. You could try to synthesize it. But that's never as good you want to live virus. China would give it to anyone they held onto it. They pub sure they publish the sequenced strain. But they didn't make the live virus available. The United States eventually got the live virus but they got two weeks later than they otherwise could have that delayed development of diagnostics I think the bigger the bigger infraction here and the one that's going to be judged against their their role in humanity and what they did to the world because his viruses changed the course of history. This has altered the world. This is not going away. This is GonNa permanently change how we live until we get to a vaccine. I mean the the gravity of what does virus is going to mean. Society for the next two years cannot be overstated. My view and this is a consequence of something that came out of China. And it's not just an accident. I mean they set up the conditions to create this risk. They knew they. They knew they had the conditions to create this kind of risk with these markets in the way they handled live animals. But but even more worrisome than that is you could make now a reasonable argument looking at just the little that we know that had China been more aggressive sometime in November and certainly in December in terms of trying to contain the spread of this Taking the kinds of aggressive steps that ultimately took in January in December and been more forthcoming with what was going on because they would have had to be forthcoming. 'cause it would've been very visible that they had a An issue of concern then they might have been able to fully contain this this this potentially if they would have locked down that city or or quarantine people when they knew they had a very unusual flu. Circular pneumonia circulating. I couldn't figure out what it was. And that was in December. That wasn't in January when they when they revealed to the World January twentieth at Fourteen Health. Care workers were infected and in fact the spread human-to-human. Now you look at the studies at the Chinese are putting out there. Putting out their own studies of clusters that they were monitoring that go all the way back into December. So they were. They were concerned about this monitoring clusters in December. They would have instituted steps then had been more forthcoming about what was happening then. this might have been an an entirely avoidable world event. I think people are going to be looking at that closely for years and years to come. And the and the basic impetus there likely was just the inclination of any government especially a dictatorship of that nature to not admit it has a problem. It's kind of the Noble Syndrome while it could be. It could be many things but I think in in this sort of broad buckets of how these things usually in fall one of two things either. They didn't recognize what was going on. They didn't know what they didn't know or they knew it and they thought that they could contain it with you know secret stance and this wasn't gonNA become problem. That's the best. That's the best of all worlds. You contained no one knows you had that hard to believe it i. I don't accept the the idea that they knew it was going to get this bad. And they Let spread I mean I think I think they either were very worried about it. A weren't worried enough but they certainly weren't forthcoming about it. They certainly weren't sharing information about it. If we had known all along what was happening and been alerted to it earlier we probably would have implemented some measures that we did. I mean the Travel restrictions at the president implemented. Did help keep this virus out? The Europeans unfortunately didn't do that in Europe became heavily seated. We actually became seated from Europe from China. Right right I had. They had been more forthcoming. The Europeans might have made some different decisions to. But if you think about the the sequence of this really wasn't until January twentieth I remember the date I remember the document. The China put out information at fourteen health. Care workers were infected. That was the first hard evidence that there was human-to-human transmission By that point China had no net for at least three weeks maybe for their own studies now and probably earlier than that. Because I don't know what their intelligence says I'm just looking at the clinical data. They're putting out and they put out. Clinical Data Studies in literature. That show that they. They had research in late December early January where they were following families to look at whether or not one person would infect the other family members and in fact. They had proven that they do so. That's evidence that the human human transmission in an agent make that available and they made that available early and made the full scope of the infections are underway available early. We might have taken different steps. Every country might have taken different steps so everything was delayed because of the China obvious Gatien so less than China. we'll get to some of the criticisms from the right of what we've been doing. So do you have any Rough guests of of how many people really died there did At all believe that three thousand is close to the real number tar detail. I mean I. I doubt that the China's The China's statistics are off by some order of magnitude You know it says. Seemed like they undercounted. Deaths early in the course of their epidemic but It does I do believe that China got control of the epidemic rule with measures that they took the reality is gonNA end up. The reality is we'RE GONNA end up under counting cases and probably unto counting deaths here as well. I think what's happening around the world in the setting of these epidemics is the systems of becoming overwhelmed. And it's hard to keep up with data. Okay so let. Let's talk about some other Chris of what we've done. I think very implicit late answered this one. But I'll put it to you anyway there One critique is look these public health experts. They're going to want to squeeze every last a case of this disease without considering the cost of the measures necessary to do that and president trump has made a mistake. He's he's fallen in with these white lab coat types who have Convinced him to undertake these lockdowns. That are as as trump is occasionally set himself Worse than the disease the The cost of what we're doing. This population base mitigation is enormous. We're going to be measuring these costs for many many years. Is Things happening? Now that we're not even aware of women not going for Prenatal Care. People not presenting with With strokes and heart attacks and scientists symptoms of cancer. We're GONNA get diagnosed late. Nasa come to just the direct public health costs it. Drinking increased. People are having issues staying at home and fighting with spouses So the implications of this just the direct public health implications are enormous. And it probably measurable. And we're GONNA be seeing seeing that for many many years to come the alternative. Is You have a pathogen ends. Probably you know this pathogen. At this point I think it's not debatable. I think people who try to debate the sort of violence and features of this pathogen. Just it's not credible disappoint. The pathogen is highly contagious. It infects eighty percent of the people get mild and moderate disease..