Biden, North Carolina, Murphy discussed on Hacks on Tap with David Axelrod and Mike Murphy
If you look at some of the regional polling like some of the stuff in the upper midwest was pretty good. Some of the upset in the upper midwest was terrible. Right in minnesota was was was pretty good. You know let's not forget washington post. Abc good pollsters. Right ed wisconsin seventeen. Maybe maybe they maybe they thought they were watching. Badgers football game and not like a poll. But i don't know. But i think we've somebody's got to figure out what in the world's going on with it because quite frankly david when you read me these numbers in the exit poll. You might as well be reading me. Tomorrow's lottery numbers. I just don't have any real faith that we know. I think i don't have a good sense of this election for a few months until there's a lot more analysis done of kind of what really happened and who really voted. Because i just i'm not going to believe you know murphy. Got suckered into believe believing all that stuff He made and so you know. I don't wanna get gullible in these I do have tomorrow's lottery numbers here by the way. Let me get them to. This would be the cook county lottery. I would say to. I mean i hope that at some point you know. I mean look and you'll point this out. I'll get it before you do. I did send you a lot of polls when they came out but yeah but and we talked about a lot of polls on the phone every day but man. We've got to have a presidential election where it isn't just a coverage of the polls each day because it just agree you don't learn anything except we say that every four years. How about exit. Polls can we talk about those. Yeah but first altogether. hello iowa one-two-three apologies and is semi out. That night i was very sorry. Almost immediately Very few is right right on it in iowa. We we we were we were. We were wrong. And she's still. She's still gold standard of iowa polling and celtic. Got it right. That turned out to be not a close race. Did anybody pick of the three d. We none of us picked. I no no no no that i would have had a very very good record. But for following murphy. Yeah yeah yeah north carolina. Don't worry acts. i'm working florida it's in. We've we've overcome this obama problem in miami. Why are there So but north carolina that was a look the shockers were susan collins who defied everything of normalcy in in polling in st panel. That if you really close to your state and if you know especially small state. I relate outs matter. He was looking good there. And tell us at real trouble. But north carolina across the board. Kinda was another one where the data was wrong. In it it hiccup back the other way. Probably a huge role turn out. Yeah so just before you go too. Far down the road on it relates to the You know To the polling we We all expected a jain. Ormuz gender gap. There was a big gender gap but it was no bigger than four years ago. It was thirteen points. We didn't i didn't necessarily see men basically even which is what the exit poll had. Now let's think about this for a second. That can't be right if well if women were up. Thirteen men can't be even or biden. Would've won by there. Were more women voting than men. I think the thing to do is we got you know. Send some whiskey. Door friends at edison and who are who are listeners. By the way. Hi gang at edison And re wait the exit polls to reality and then we're going to know what happened. Yeah so ira Because on this polling on this polling issue before the election in white non college women were thirty nine percent for biden sixty for trump that is improvement over four years ago. when I think hillary got twenty seven. I it was a six point improvement but it wasn't the kind of gigantic improvement that some of the polls predicted so the the notion of a shy trump voter which is the term that pollsters have developed. People who were for trumpet. Didn't want tell poster they were for trump. Maybe there's some to it. Yeah i think so. Is that initiative. Delta's interesting to me. Yeah you know because you don't you don't get in a fight with anybody over where you aren't proposal j yeah. I was infuriated by proposal. Jay but into a fight over prop twenty eight the other day. Maybe we get rob farm in edison. After they've waited that might be a good conversation to have consists is an interesting electorate that gave us response. Well it interesting that after the polling mistakes of twenty sixteen and and all the thought that went into recalibrating them. It's likely you up four or five percent that we've got a pulling error at least equal to what we had in twenty sixteen if not slightly greater and so usually you can talk. You know you. that'd be a four four percent on both the national and the state. I mean at least last time the national stuff was pretty close and then the terribly bad state polling wasn't nearly as good. I think there's clearly a big problem that somebody's gotta figure out just to be clear. You know the the famed pollsters that were going to look at and find the trump voters. They didn't do too. well either. You know one other footnote on this polling thing. I think were move on to the future. At usc center for the political future. Check us out online. We did this big panel back poll and you know we had a ten points. My our friend. Bob shrum was you know couldn't have been happier. I thought oh. I've got this figured out. It's only seven points while we did an experimental thing where some scientists from europe or over at our institute. And i would name them but i would mangle their names but they did the social circle thing like what are your friends talking about. Who do you think. They're vote for blah blah. They had a four four and a half. The four point eight point race much tighter I think there's a future in some of that too. it's interesting we published it. All people can take a look murphy. How meeting listen to them. When you're making your predictions shrimp called me. All worked up and said you believe it. They just put out a press. Release four point. Some biden online too But now that we now we're looking at it at there. There may be some but you also don't know post trump if everything calms down a little if that problem will start to melt away. There's a lot of problems that are going to start to melt away now. He's got brother. Well let's talk about that. Let's talk about it because first of all incredible seen The race was called this morning. Just this outpouring of people into the streets and look. I think one of the things that happened in this race is that as trump became meaner and more dislike -able to a lot of folks biden became more likable. And i think there is you know. He ended up with a favourable rating from voters. They liked him him. And i have no doubt.