Theresa May, Mom Matthews, Julius discussed on Biz 1190 Overnight featuring Bloomberg Radio
Been torpedoed with position parties granted an emergency debate on whether the government is in contempt for refusing to release the legal advice over the draft. Not Theresa May was hoping to start the discussion later today saying that the deal delivers on the on the twenty sixteen referendum, but the speaker of the house, John berko has agreed that there is a case for saying that the government is in content of parliament, Julius is with me. Mom Matthews is still with us. I mean here we go. It's another harpoon in Theresa May's Brexit Bill which will come to the high school from a distance as you look into the UK. Some people have said to me this trays like an emerging market at the moment has it really got that much of a whole. Mark of dysfunctionality. Well, the short answer is. Yes, it does. But I guess that's a sign of a healthy democracy. And the concern I think people have is that this latest legality that that has popped off could cause a delay in the vote on Brexit that was supposed to happen on December eleven and then the further that's pushed away, perhaps the greater the likelihood that people who would vote for it. They will drop in the projections are that she could miss the vote already by something like two hundred. So the longer it's delayed. The more more kind of chaos theory is. Perhaps is a greater likelihood that it wouldn't even get through. I don't think anybody really expected the first vote to be successful. Anyway. Okay. I mean, take that as the base case scenario is some people are saying on the labour benches. They would then call a motion of no confidence in the government. There's a risk. There is a risk that the government could for this brings me to the gilt market. I want to show you this chart. This is ten years versus thirty years in the gills and the proposition, by the way by Marcus Ashworth. It's in the library is that you potentially have a buyers strike going on here on the longer days at paper because of the risk a tail risk that labor exceeds to power pro quo spending inflation, you don't wanna own guilt that that's got that's got merit. That theory hasn't it? Well, I think in an labor government, certainly you'd be a lot of people would run away from the UK and the pound will go down. I don't know what that would do to the financial markets. Ironically, could be actually quite good for the footsie. At least I'm not so sure about the bond market. But I know that in the footsie the big companies over most of their earnings come from overseas. Markets have a funny way of working, but there are always opportunities. And I think one opportunity would be collapse from the pound would be incentive to own shares. But as far as I'm sorry, I can't help you too much there. Okay. Let's let let's see what that potential terrorists. Looks like as we go towards the vote in the house of Commons. Matthews MD and head of Asia research for Julius joining us this morning with your thoughts. Thank you very much up next on the show concert. Stocks will.