Cova, Dr Mody, China discussed on This is Why
Covert nineteen is affecting people around the world both by the news of it and in actually catching the disease. But how contagious is the disease? Dr Moti if someone is a symptomatic can they spread? Covert nineteen on the good side for covert nineteen is the issue of whether or not transmission occurs when people are don't have symptoms so called a symptomatic so if people can transmit the virus when they're not sick that makes it much more difficult to know whether or not they're capable of transmitting the virus so in other words somebody who's sitting next to you on the bus and does not have a fever does not have a cough Is still capable of transmitting that virus to you. We now know that that happens. Extraordinarily rarely with couvet nineteen people that transmit the covert nineteen virus. They have symptoms so that allows us to pursue a strategy where we say if you have symptoms. Please stay home. So that'll help with containing covert nineteen. What's challenging aspect of the virus on the negative side of that equation is the issue of what we call attack or transmission rate. So we've talked already about the fatality rate. This is a different statistic and what it says is if you look at a population of people and there is one case. Statistically how many people does that person spread the infection to and they get sick so if one person gets sick and they spread it to one other person that's a transmission reiter attack rate of one whereas if one person gets sick and they transmit it to to five people then the attack greater transmission rate is five K. So if you look at seasonal flu about one person so the attack rate Is One so n seasonal flu? One person will get it and they will spread it to one other person so unfortunately for covert nineteen. That number is around two three so that means that one person gets it they will spread it to two or three other people and you can see that if you start looking at that and saying so those two to three people spread it to two or three other people right then. It becomes much more difficult to contain because it's expanding exponentially if I put that in perspective though and say so. What about some other viruses? The number for measles is around fifteen use of the measles vaccine is. What's led to the containment of disease with such a high transmission rate? If people don't have immunity to measles they should be vaccinated. Because that's the way that we actually mitigate against that infection because it has such a high transmission rate. So that's you know. So that makes covert nineteen more difficult to control than seasonal flu. And when you're trying to pursue a containment strategy that makes it challenging not impossible but challenging so copen nineteen can't be spread by people who don't have symptoms but it spreads wider than the common cold. Dr Mody how would you grade the worldwide response to the novel Corona Virus? Their response in China has been unprecedented. They have affected public health measures successful public health measures. That have never been done. Before and mankind history would of told us that those public health that they implemented at the start of the Cova nineteen outbreak would be unsuccessful that absolutely has proven to be not true. China has contained this infection. The number of cases has dropped steadies in Towards the end of January exactly the opposite is present in the rest of the world and looking at my screen here in front of me that shows real time data for Cova nineteen over the world we are now at ninety four thousand two hundred and fifty cases in the world and the number of cases outside. China has grown steadily to looks like it somewhere around eighteen thousand now so Basically China has if they continue as long as the virus doesn't change or anything they have basically Dealt with the problem in the rest of the world it becomes much greater problem and cases are growing exponentially you know. This is troublesome but The Chinese experience and the Chinese data shows that it is capable. It is possible to contain this Brian. This this virus but we probably need to do what they've done so it sounds like you're expecting that we will hear more cases of Cova nineteen in the US and in Canada in the coming months. Yes Dr Mody. When can we expect? A to be ready for. Covert nineteen right. So this is a very active area of research I think there are now Twenty or more vaccines that are in various stages of development. That's important because we don't know what the very best target for. Cova de Nineteen is going to be and various different vaccines are capable of producing side effects. That are unwanted So it's really important to have a very broad pipeline for vaccines but that also says that You GotTa do. All the safety. Trials efficacy trials and then actually real world in the field trials to know they work before you can release them. So if we work at light speed It's GonNa be a year or more before. We actually have a vaccine until the vaccine is ready for the public. What can we do to prevent spreading or catching this corona virus number one? Wash your hands or use hand sanitizer. We know that those things are effective. Wash your hands or hand sanitizer after every public surfaces that you touch number two. Don't touch your face your nose. Your is in fact somebody said to me the other day that the major benefit wearing a mask because actually so you don't touch your face kind of set that's the case but it's true. I mean human nature is to scratch your nose touch your face in some way or the third is Maintain what we call social distancing state six feet away from other people in public spaces in terms of a mask. You know if you're in a place and Somebody is coughing right next to you. The best thing to do probably is to move if that's not possible. Then perhaps the mask it's worth using The unfortunate thing is that masks only last fifteen or twenty minutes and so used them sparingly And really the truth is that. If you've got a mask in your pocket you're probably better off to offer it to the person who's doing the coughing. That will protect you more than putting it on yourself but that might not be socially acceptable to many your local health. Authorities will also have corona virus information relevant to your region or province on March fourth. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau created a cabinet committee to deal with the virus outbreak including the Deputy Prime Minister and ministers of Health Public Safety Industry Finance Employment and economic development. The committee is charged with complementing. The work being done by the government's Incident Response Group. If all that has you feeling a little anxious if you've noticed maybe your hands are clenched or you're just tight. You're breathing is shallow and quick. That's another effect of the novel. Corona Virus Oprah community and stress. Next time on this is why we look at these psychological battleground. That's part and parcel of the cove nineteen outbreaks and all outbreaks of infectious diseases. With Dr Steven Taylor. People typically think of pandemics big biological events and really this logical because of the behavior of people who influences how viruses spread and how they contained and people's emotional other reactions to pandemics. This is why is produced by me. Dave McIvor an atom toy. It's a national radio. Show and podcast. You can reach us by email at global news dossier and on twitter at this is why if you like what you hear and want to hear more make sure you subscribe to this is why so you never miss an episode. We're available on Apple. Podcast spotify or wherever. We find your favorite podcasts. And if you like what you're hearing tele friend. Thanks for listening. We'll see you in a week..