John Bolton, TOM, Andrew Weiss discussed on Bloomberg Surveillance

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In there they form a U.S. national security adviser on Bloomberg in the last 24 hours from New York City this morning Good morning to you Futures are negative two tens of 1% on a S&P about an hour and 12 minutes away from the opening bell on the NASDAQ 100 down a quarter of 1% Yields higher TK up by 8 basis points almost inching towards two 48 sub two 50 at two 47 45 We've traded ourselves on sharp conversation of this war in Ukraine from general Kim general Hodges and reedus Elliot Ackerman the Marina on the other day and yesterday John Bolton and thank you for the fierce comments on John Bolton always informative and controversial We continue that discussion today and we do so around the Carnegie endowment for international peace This was simply formed out of Endo Carnegie's outrage of World War I He died within a year of the end of that war Andrew Weiss joins us to this morning vice president at Carnegie endowment for international peace Andrew I want to talk about autocracy from the past to Hitler it Stalin Putin is mentioned this We have Putin We have a massive win in Hungary with Orban as well How do we control manage or end these outcomes of autocracy as we see in Ukraine So it's great to be here with you Tom I am always skeptical that the United States has within its power great ability to shift the ultimate political direction of Russia and as much as what president Putin is doing in Ukraine is horrible And as much as the world must level whatever tools it has to try to slow down Russia's war in Ukraine we need to be realistic that regime change in Russia is something that has eluded western policymakers now throughout Putin's tenure And every day of Vladimir Putin wakes up when he comes into work he's mostly concerned about the safety and survival of his regime And he's prepared to escalate and do things to protect himself against that threat And that's been basically what's been animating him throughout the past two decades If the people of Russia and the various peoples of Russia find out what's going on will they give him support or will they walk away from mister Putin We need to be careful about what Russians are willing and aren't willing to accept And one of my colleagues at the Carnegie Moscow center wrote about this very powerfully in Russian earlier this week Russians are living in an information vacuum and for the most part they are doing that by choice They are not seeking out the truth They don't believe that their country is responsible for atrocities or war crimes in Ukraine And if we puncture that information bubble which is a big if I'm not sure that people in Russia are prepared to take action to deal with the problem of living in a country that's ruled by Vladimir Putin And it's just for a very simple reason The instruments of repression that Vladimir Putin has built up over the past two decades are intimidating They are prepared to use violence and other measures to keep Russians off the streets and to prevent political dissent from spilling over into questions of how their country is ruled And you see that level of fear among average people as well as the elite And so for the west to be banking on either a split within the elite or bottom up pressure on the regime to take care of our Putin problem I think is really unrealistic The way we're going to deal with our Putin problem is action by western leaders It's not going to come from within Russia itself unfortunately Where does China fit into this Andrew given the fact that over the weekend and frankly yesterday The New York Times put out an article talking about propaganda that China has made that actually paid Vladimir Putin in a very nice light for some of the party members So I think a lot of what China is providing right now is moral support as you say and the propaganda sphere in terms of supporting Russia's lies about possible biological weapons and things like that that it claims Ukraine has all of which is made up whole cloth But when it comes to the ways Russia needs help right now the main support China is going to provide is by providing the bid on Russian oil and gas resources which China buys on at the moment As much as it wants from Russia the longer term problem for Russia is that China can not be expected to be the backstop and the fiscal authority for its government And so as Russia comes under increased pressure from western sanctions it's going to be turning to China out of desperation It's going to be looking to China to be its savior I would be very surprised particularly in the technological area which is affected by western export controls if Chinese firms are going to be willing to step up and provide inputs to the Russian industrial sector that it can't buy now from the west Andrew just to wrap things up and we only have a little bit of time What do you think the west could do to bring this to an anti more quickly I think that the west is going to keep ratcheting up sanctions The problem isn't that there isn't a ton of headroom left short of a full scale embargo on the Russian economy And so if the west is prepared for example to cut off all imports of Russian oil and gas which I think Germany is not willing to countenance at this point If the west does not prepare to go to that length I think the most likely outcomes that this war simply drags on And over time it's likely to morph into something similar to the Balkans wars of the 1990s on a much faster scale Andrew we appreciate your time It's a clinic for all of us Andrew Weiss of the Carnegie endowment Tom Kean and what a difficult time And it's got harder not easier over the last few weeks and the last month for that matter too These are atrocities are a major shift major major shift John in that before this invisible maybe or not believing in this in our lack of news it was about NATO It was about diplomacy It was suits and ties flying around And that's just vaporized in the last four or 5 6 days Tell me something you said at the start of the invasion The social media has changed the way we absorb war How we witness it even all these miles away thousands of miles away from where it's taking place Right And some that ramps up the pressure on the politicians to do more Can a Europeans this week get away with just offering a proposal on facing gap Russian coal After what we all saw over the weekend I think the reporting is a proposal's got to go further I don't have knowledge on that John I would do this overlay The second Chechen war was grim That ended 2009 ish 2008 ish Twitter started yes a few years before it But can you imagine the Russian wars in Georgia or Chechnya were the kind of social media today And again this Biden approach I don't know whether to give the president approach but John the Biden approach of showing immediate intelligence is one of the original points of this moment Yeah and some think that he's been congratulated for.

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