Stephen, Ten Thousand Megawatts, Twenty Years discussed on The Energy Gang

The Energy Gang


To increase the use of yeti five twenty five acts in less than twenty years yes so stephen how about you what stood out for you yes so i was monitoring both solar and wind projections and they seem to be way off and all over the place firstly the solar projections are probably much more accurate they they do even the reference case model pretty serious explosion in solar still very conservative compared to what other outfits like wood mackenzie or be any are projecting but a huge modification from last year so alex gilbert of spark library in a twitter thread pointed out that solar projections this year are five to ten times higher than twenty eighteen projections and that is a little bit of a head scratcher because you know nobody in their right mind who follows this space would think that something so dramatic happened in the last year that you would need to modify your projections by that much so it just it goes to show you how much they're scrambling to keep up with market realities the second one is for offshore wind which i found very puzzling they basically show no growth for offshore wind just a handful of megawatts through twenty fifty in our own analysts at wood mackenzie power and renewables expect that we could see somewhere around ten thousand megawatts of off shore wind in the u._s. by the late twenty twenty s given the amount of policy momentum that we're seeing and the amount of auctions that are you know emerging and showing signs of success so the the disconnect between the projection for off shore wind and the other modeling that i've seen from us and other prominent research outfits is really extrordinary and then when you actually just look at onshore wind they project within a couple of years growth for onshore wind to just stop i mean just like the coal plant retirement thing that you pointed out katherine they win just stops completely and again they blame the phase down of the tax credit but everyone in the wind industry understands that there's still a lot of technological progress happening with project development and technological design and they can still squeeze costs out of projects and so the the the idea that wind is just going to stop because of the changing tax environment is not predicted by anyone else aside from e._i._a. so those were a few of the things that stood out for me yeah another piece that that always bugs me about any of these is that the demand side is just completely ignored not from a load perspective but from a resource perspective so you know as we move forward we're going to get a lot more consumer cited resources and it just seems like a lot of those are just not taken into consideration on any of these i did reach out to to try to get a sense for how do they they do these and you know this is it goes back to the seventies as a reference ks they always insist that it's not a forecast and that they can only model the information that they have so it is very very important for people to go in and provide information and data about what's really happening out there because i think that sometimes those sources are limited and i think it's important for people if they want their you know their industry to be really taken seriously and into consideration they need to take the data forward e._a. so they'll make sure it's included we need to talk about the impact now i sent show notes around in big capital letters i said very important we need to make sure we talk about solutions here or why this matters because we've had a number of conversations about we've bashed e._i._a. it's pretty well known in energy circles that they're modeling is extremely conservative and has always trying to catch up with technological trends i guess it's important for people to realize why this matters for the way that national lawmakers make choices or the way that utilities make choices how does this work its way into the way companies corporations utilities and lawmakers make market moving or market freezing decisions mean e._a. is cited by anybody who's making legislative regulatory policy and they're used as all their tarts or used as a bible in one thing i would really want to highlight here is that when the administrator cup one oh was going through her confirmation hearing in the senate there were a.

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