Listen: Joe Biden, Biden Biden, Rudy Giuliani discussed on The Forecast with Harry Enten
"Hello. This is Harry Anton, and you're listening to another episode of the forecast with Harry Anton. And if you're not asleep by this point, ladies and gentlemen, boy, we've got a heck of a show for you last week. Of course, we spoke about the rising tide of Elizabeth Warren in the democratic primary this week. We're going to take a little step back and we're gonna talk about the front runner, Joe Biden, then we're exactly he stands, and what exactly is standing means going forward in this democratic primary process by looking at it through a historical ones. Well, in case you have been under a rock over the last six months, you of course know that Joe Biden entered the democratic race with about thirty percent in the national polls. And after a bump following his announcement, he's come back to earth during the month of June. He's averaged approximately thirty one percent of the national polls, which is still well ahead of his nearest democratic competitors including Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders who were getting between approximately ten percent and fifteen percent of the democratic primary vote nationally. So what does it mean when someone's averaging thirty one percent in the national primary polls that June before the? Primary season begins when we come go back in history, and we can look at every open nomination process that is when come it wasn't running for a party's nomination since one thousand nine hundred seventy two and what do we find? We find that the meeting candidate, the median front runner had in the national primary polls get this, folks. Thirty one percent that is Joe Biden is right on the median half got more than thirty one percent, the front runners in the primary polls that June before the primary and half got below and it turns out that this thirty one percents actually pretty good dividing line in another way because take a look at those candidates who are earning less than thirty one percent on average in the primary posed June before the primary season began, how many of them actually went on to win the nomination just one out of eight just one out of eight that one exception was Mitt Romney back in two thousand twelve he was averaging twenty three percent in the primary posed June before the primary began, but overall pretty poor record for those who are less than the median how about those who are greater than the median and the primary. Posed that Huma for the primary season began. Well, it turns out that we see the exact reverse pattern, seven out of eight candidates who are running thirty one percent or more in the primary posed that June before the primary, actually went on to win the nomination, the one exception, notable, it was Hillary Clinton back in two thousand eight she was averaging in the high thirties. And of course, she went on the lose nomination to Barack Obama. Of course, it should be point out that, that was one of the closest nomination fights of all time. So generally speaking if you're above thirty one percent and national primary posted Yuma before the primary season you go on to win the nomination if you're below it, you end up most likely going to lose that nomination fight, of course, Joe Biden's right in the middle. And that's something that I would stress over and over again. Is that Joe Biden is kind of in between case it's not really clear, whether or not, he's going to go on to win the nomination take, for instance, someone that I've heard some people compare Joe Biden to in recent weeks. Rudy Guiliani Rudy Giuliani, of course, ran for the Republican nomination in two thousand eight and at the beginning of the primary process. Was basically skating by due to his reputation following the nine eleven attacks in New York City Giuliani, of course, went on a lose he at this particular point was averaging in the high twenties in the primary polls June before the primary. So right around Joe Biden's thirty one percent. But there's a key difference between Giuliani and Biden Biden's, not just winning the national primate. Pulse. Take a look at the state of Iowa. Of course they have the first in the nation contest, the caucuses out there. What do we see? We say Joe Biden ahead in those. What about the New Hampshire primary polls, the first primary, and in the nation. What do we see? We see Joe Biden had their South Carolina. The second in the nation primary, what do we see Joe Biden ahead there? What about endorsements? This is something that I haven't spoken to much about. But of course, the general idea being that if you have more endorsement from party officials, you tend to do better what we see we see Joe Biden having the most endorsement, so far, when we wait them appropriately with governors getting the highest weight at ten points, senators getting the next highest weight at five points and representatives from the house. Getting one point we see Joe Biden in the lead in the endorsement contest as well. Indeed I went back and I look what happens. What happens when someone leads endorsements? Leads in the Iowa polls leads in New Hampshire Poulsen leads nationally. Well, it turns out that an open nomination processes since one thousand nine hundred eighty that's as far back as the endorsement data goes, what do we see? We see at this particular point in every single case where a candidate lead in all those categories, they went onto win the nomination that, of course, includes Mitt Romney, who we mentioned earlier. But again, take another step back. What are we see when we look at cross those different measures, what we don't see as Joe Biden leading overwhelmingly in any of those metrics? He has a small Niwa less than ten points in New Hampshire. It's a little greater around. Let's say ten to fifteen points, South Carolina. He does hold a big lead, but endorsements he doesn't hold a large, in fact of the possible endorsement points again, that waiting system. One for house of Representative endorsements five for senators and ten for governors. He only has about eight percent of the possible endorsement point so far. And other words ninety two percent of the party isn't actually endorsing him at this particular point, meaning, there's a real shot of another candidate coming up, and stealing Joe Biden's thunder. When you put it all together what you generally see as what I think a lot of us feel. Right. And that is that Joe Biden clearly has the best shot of winning the democratic nomination process over all the other candidates, but it's not an overwhelming edge. It's not as bad as say Rudy Giuliani wasn't two thousand eight who really wasn't leading, an Iowa, New Hampshire or in the endorsement primary. But it say not a strong Cillari Clinton, who is leading and all those at this particular point, and generally getting fifty percent or greater in all those categories. So Biden's, this in between case and that means, well, it means folks that they're still a lot of mystery to go in this primary season. And you're just gonna have to stay tuned and see what happens because I know I'm going to stay tuned because as the forecaster of I don't know what's gonna happen. My guess is you probably don't know what's going to happen. Although maybe one of you is trying to steal my. Title. If you wanna steal my title, give my producer."