China, Chris Arthur Chris, Communist Party discussed on John Batchelor

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I'm John bachelor this is the John about so show in Baku Azerbaijan about an hour before dawn over the Caspian Sea shore. I am with my colleague Christopher Nixon **** of the Liechtenstein institute we are here at the sponsorship and guidance of the embassy of Azerbaijan in the United States Salem Salem on off the ambassador and my partner Scala dot com a global technology company transforming the retail space with digital signage we turn immediately to the news in the world about the anticipation of the event on October first in East Asia this is the commemoration the marking I'm avoiding the word celebration of the founding of the people's Republic of China the endeavor is a puzzle because of the troubles in Hong Kong and because of the ongoing trade deal and the routine reports of a China Akana made that is wobbly Christian are joined by our colleague Gordon check of the daily beast use in my studio in New York and we are all joined by the distinguished professor of international relations at the university of Pennsylvania the Lauder professor. Arthur Waldron a gentleman all a very good evening to Arthur I begin with a short straight forward question what is it that the people's Republic of China wants to achieve with this event on October first good evening too hot there I think you're absolutely right to avoid the word celebration if you want a celebration go to Paris on their national day this is a so the only thing that the people's Republic the only thing they're champions that is the seventy years they've managed to take the lives of seventy million seven zero million of their people without war and in good weather when they could have had bountiful harvest phone if this were my country with that record I would call it something like Holocaust Remembrance Day but this was a this is an intimate of Tory spectacle is designed to scare the Chinese and to scare the farmer's garden so are there you talk about trying to intimidate the Chinese people you would think though that the leaders of China are intimidated because there's not really going to be a live audience of people re what they do they clear the center of Beijing they have this big military parade and they try to keep the people as far away from this festivities as possible Los extras so completely unlike prior. the people are just everywhere you just sloshing around you know drinking clearly the leaders of China. we're above all their own people free to behave as they like. Chris Arthur Chris **** here good to hear from you you know there's a lot of of course internal issues in China right now with Hong Kong with protests in different cities do you expect any of those internal issues too should pop up during this national they sell celebration of national day event. his eyes are you a question yes is for your other well I think they will in places like Hong Kong and I think there may be some some surprises elsewhere but clearly the the government is taking every precaution to ensure that nothing spontaneous or so celebrate Tory place an old man people are locked out of their houses for blocks around but obviously the whole thing is under the shadow of the fact that they've had to put out that I've just watches a propaganda film about the great achievements of seventy years and and frankly for someone who knows the history that is pretty thin gruel and they are. by projections for Joe their economy wobbling their fiscal and financial system wobbling and third above all they'd never expected this to the other countries of the world we're gonna react militarily to China's huge military buildup. garden how quickly this anniversary her this commemoration the people of China are completely informed of these ironies that you and Arthur and Chris have evidence because of the internet even with the great firewall the word gets around that strikes me Gordon is something the Communist Party as never anticipated and is now dealing with a fully informed sophisticated and enriched population in the large cities yes in the infant allies some very sophisticated knowledgeable people as you point out at a time when the economy is crumbling you have all sorts of discontent you've got fractures at the top of the Communist Party this is just one to Bakul after another John and the people know it yes and your card go head Arthur. I I was in the then Leningrad for the hundredth anniversary of Levin's birth. and the authorities. it was all wet and all the time building fronts covered with his portrait his voice everywhere he was just ubiquitous figure if you couldn't escape it and be unexpected results was based loosely that the Russian people in Leningrad they just choked and sort of object and that's the moment that many analysts date as the beginning of a kind of discussed with communism so if the P. R. C. over does this and elbows the people out doesn't give them anything to do this can build real ill will and make them appear to be what's your life's a food with the recall stripes. Chris you travel often to China is it your impression in the people you're dealing with that they're fully informed that they're not in any fashion deprived of facts even if they do not conduct themselves in our country fashion well I mostly stay in the coastal city so I think in the coastal cities you see more the success stories more the people who've been pulled out of poverty so that they feel they owe a lot more to the Communist Party I think where you see this discontent is and of course some of the people who hope for more democratic institutions in China but also really in the interior of China the people that are living in poverty still yeah those are the people where I think that you know you see this discontent and you see people who are really frustrated with the system I think that when when I look at at China I think it's some of the issues with demographics that I think are going to be very problematic for China's the population starts to shrink that's going to destroy the economic base that has been able to provide China with all this growth and that's a problem I and in conjunction with the debt and some other issues that I think is going to be a big issue for that that's the timer garden it's going to go off you've talked about it over the years yes certainly when you look at demographics the people's Republic itself says is going to peak out and sort of like the end of next decade but a number of people said no it's a lot earlier and you know we've seen the birth rates fall in two thousand seventeen two thousand eighteen it's going to fall this year as well that's a real indication that the demography is just going to go into accelerated decline are there a final question we have less than a minute a what should we watch for as we get this waterfall of YouTube events from Beijing after October first is there any signal as similar to what you identified in Leningrad for the celebration of will get off well I would hi I guess the thing I would say is to look for any signs of spontaneity and signs of displeasure or boredom wait many of us see in photographs of these party made a half the people are asleep and we want to get a sense of whether there's. is this a live or is this a kind of an embalmed or pre frozen celebration that they're.

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