Bilas, Investment Analyst, Financial Engines Research Center discussed on


Senior investment analyst in the Financial Engines research center, and as usual Bilas brought along a lot of charts that contain the ideas and data that really will help you visualize. What he's about ready to talk about. Now, you'll find those at investingsensEcom Bill. It's great to have you back on the. Show with us so far here today, we've been talking about a couple of risks the trade wars and interest rates in we'd like to get to both of those here in just a second. But wow, what a week. It's been. It's been a week. Right. So actually if you look at the news flow on trade this week in the markets. I mean, we're not really seeing much of an impact on on Wall Street. Am I am I reading that right now? Yeah. And you know, he's got a kind of expect the unexpected when it comes to markets right back in April may whenever we'd get that the next round of news on those US, China tariffs. Kind of see some some selling. But this week. I'm getting announcement for those proposed tariffs on another two hundred billion and imports. And just the fact that it's a ten percent tariff. Instead of a twenty five percent tariff has helped push the Dow Espy five hundred back to all time highs. So the Wall Street on main street. You know from your research perspective and the team's perspective. What impact is it actually having on businesses on the ground, and on, you know, kind of main streets across the country. Look at things like that leading economic indicators in this we've talked about before not really seeing an impact there, certainly not seeing impact on small business sentiment as the chart posted over on investing sense shows, you know, it's at a new Pika for small business sentiment other areas like jobless claims definitely no sign there right now that it's bleeding over kind of a c-. Jobless claims are keep coming in at a multi decade lows overall really so far it seems that the impact of the tariffs kinda remains a small relative to the pro growth fiscal policy in place right now with those tax cuts increase spending. You know, kind of a one area we are looking at is that we saw bond yields backup this week with the ten year back over three percent. So seeing some worry, you know, that that fiscal policy and its impact on flation inflation down the road, you know, in the trade dispute, which might add a few tenths of a percent to inflation could be having some impact on the bond markets. We did see some good data from cornerstone macro this week looking at that increase in the ten year yield and showing that half of the yield increase. This week was due to increased inflation expectations. So a scenario where there might be some spillover effect from those trade disputes that could be a risk to portfolios that some might overlook Bill. Let's talk a little bit about inflation. Because when you talk about inflation, you talk about one of the key issues. The fed.

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