Drew Brees, Michelle Seventy, Rams discussed on Behind the Bets
I think all three of us were. I do recall that. I was one of those Arctic blast things it was. So it photographs a magnet. You lost a bit on Jeff Fisher. Yeah. Imagine kickings for losers, right? Mr murray. Naree got Mr. Murray is a right again. Yeah. Kicking is for losers areas? All right. My man, look it was great catching up. I know. We've talked a lot during the football season's good to do it on the pod and excellent stuff with this hockey bedding, and we'll continue to monitor it. I can't imagine. We jinxed it, but I just hope we didn't. Yeah. No kidding. Well, thanks, Paul. I appreciate me on you gotta but and good luck. Waking up you're doing the Lord's doing the Lord's work out there getting better early delivering the gambling info kind of my take care talk. Nerdy to me. Fantasy insider and regular here on the behind. The beds podcast might clay. Joining us, Mike O Arima, man. I'm doing well. I worry though doing well. Alright. Speed speed time two minute drill. Hurry up offense. We got some prop beds conference championship games. Let it rent. All right. Let's do it. Let's start out with this. Saints Rams game. I liked one in this. Drew Brees two touchdown passes is the line under is plus one ten under minus one thirty of believe it or not Doug. I'm going with the under here. You look at breezes past five games is passing touchdown totals to one zero one and one they've just been leaning heavily on the running game, especially near the goal line. He's actually been at or under few passing touchdowns in nine of seventeen games. This season was really hot early on. But since then has cooled off in that department, by the way, the saints offense overall not really scoring touchdowns. Like they were earlier on four point four touchdowns per game weeks one to twelve but only two point two per game in their past six games at a cut right in half. So again, you look at the play calling one of the run heaviest in the league and one of the run heaviest near the goal line. And teams, by the way, you look at you look at facing. The Rams sixty percent of touchdowns against and this season passes that's twenty four th they also don't allow many plays, and you know, the product of the ransom a lot of zero or one passing touchdown six of their past seven games. So a tough team to throw touchdowns against in the same offense has not been as good over the past month and a half. So I'm gonna lean towards the end at the plus one tenure, right? Two hundred two passing touchdown for drew Brees. Look we saw it on the first play against your eagles a week ago under through receiver. Intercepted doesn't quite look as healthy has in the past just turned forty this week. So maybe age is a factor. Let's go to the AFC championship game, and you have to place here. I do we'll start with the patriots running game here. I'm going under on Sony. Michelle seventy five point five rushing arts at minus one ten I know this is probably tough to get behind after his performance last week, but expect a bit of a different game script here. I don't think they're gonna score on. You know, what was the fourth straight drives open the game and big lead as they go into Kansas City and that will kind of aligned with what they've done the season. I mean, they're the patriots averaging thirty three called runs game in their wins. But only twenty two per game in their five losses. That's that's obvious. Obviously a game scripting there. But it it the the split is similar home in the road. Right. So they're nine annot at home this season averaging thirty five runs a game averaging twenty five per game on the road where they're three and five you look at Michelle's rushing yardage totals and losses this season. Thirty four fifty thirty one fifty seven fifty nine. None of them are close to the seventy five point five line for this game and his yard show on the road, by the.