Cal Cunningham, TOM, United States Senate discussed on Mornings on the Mall with Brian Wilson

Automatic TRANSCRIPT

Talking about the United States Senate In the last thing on that, Tom tell us Cal cunning and race the polls. Polls just got it come wrong. The real clear politics average real clear. Politics is gonna have to look at all these pollsters, and that's whether or not they should keep aggregating them because they have proven to be you. Useless now for several elections, But the RCP average was Cal Cunningham was up 2.6 points. You know where this thing ended? As I just said a moment ago, Tom tell us wins by 1.7. Wins by 1.7. And if I look back just as all of the polls on Cal Cunningham, um they all stay, Cunningham. I mean, sorry, the all the holes in this race, they all say Cunningham's going to win. It's all blue. And in the end, one result is red. And it's the only one that matters. It's election Day and tell us the posters were wrong and it's interesting. Why were they wrong? Well, one explanation is coming out of The New York Times New York Times, Nate Cohn is suggesting that One of the explanations is that the pandemic made Democrats more responsive to pollsters. Listen to this quote. The basic story is that after the lock down, Democrats just started taking surveys because they were locked at home and didn't have anything else to do. This is, according to David Shore, a Democratic pollster who worked for the Obama campaign in 2012 he nearly all of the national polling error could be explained by the Post Cove it jump in response rates. I'm wrong. Democrats. So the theory being that Republicans continued to go to jobs that were outside of their homes by and large and Democrats were holed up in their house and decided one of the ways they would distract themselves was to have conversations with strangers. Well, listen, if you're going to take surveys, I get asked all the time. Don't you get us all the time online about Hebe get paid to take surveys right thinking from home. At least I was gonna lose that would do something like that always get paid or get gift cards to take surveys, as opposed Todo something like that. That's interesting. What's also interesting is that they admit that it's most likely because that conservatives were out working. Acknowledging that Khun Services were out working and liberals were staying home looking for the first person who made a million bucks by answering survey questions. I'd like to meet that guy answer questions all day. Exactly..

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