Chad Brown, Junior Alvarado, Belmont Park discussed on The Horse Racing Radio Network Podcast
They do a great job there on FS two America's day at the races. Well, speaking of New York, we will start with the Saturday action in New York, Dave, and the great two sands point on Saturday goes as race number 6. These are three year old Phillies going a mile in one 8th on the inner turf, the purse here is $200,000, nice field of 8 set to go to post. We heard there the stretch call of the 2021 jockey club oaks invitational won by Santa Sara runner up that day in the Philly who was actually favored in the race. The Chad Brown trainee higher truth, hired truth never runs a bad race, and she will be favored in the sands point tomorrow. One of two fur Chad Brown in here along with fluffy socks and both of them are completely reasonable. Higher truth, couple of wins and 6 starts back to back, runner up performances, fluffy socks ran second in the Lake George at Saratoga in July, went out west and ran third in the del mar oaks in August. I think this is a pretty wide open event Jordan's Rio for Todd pletcher number two, I think, is possible as well. I ended up with harajuku the three. Here in the first race in North America, you heard it a moment ago finishing third behind higher truth. But ara juku had the more difficult trip I thought, I think second race in North America for Graham motion is a really good angle. And I think the horses that harajuku is running against in Europe might be a touch better than these. I don't love the cut back in distance to a mile and an 8th, but in a wide open event, I'm gonna go with harajuku. The other thing that I was worried about with harajuku, in addition to the in addition to the cutback and distance that you referred to, is the rider change. She goes from one of the best riders in the world in Ryan Moore, to a guy who is not one of the best riders in the world. He's a good writer, junior alvarado. He's having an awful time of it at Belmont park and really overall in 2021. He's actually winning 12% of the time at doma. So that's not an awful time. That's probably right where he should be. But he's only 7%, actually, I'm sorry. He's 7% at Belmont park. He's 12% for the year overall. So it's been a slow start at Belmont three wins from his first 41 mounts. And it worries me a little bit that in a race this big that there wouldn't be a quote unquote bigger named rider on this gram motion trainees. So it doesn't mean she can't win. And you know what? You're probably get a better price because of it. If one of the Ortiz brothers or Joel Rosario or John Velasquez or you know, whoever you want to say, Louis Sia is we're aboard harajuku she probably be lower than three to one, where she is on the morning line, junior alvarado. You get a little bit of a better price. I thought higher truth was the one to beat. I don't think she's a standout in this spot, but she just never runs a bad race and I rad's gonna try for the first time. His brother Jose has ridden this daughter of Galileo the last 5 times that she's run. The Philly that really intrigues me Dave and I couldn't pull the trigger to put her on top, but I'm gonna be using her on every ticket is number four runaway rumor for Jorge Abreu and Jose lazcano. She's another one that's never run a bad race in her life. 6 career starts three wins a second a third and a fourth place finish. The first three or four starts of her career, I think are as good as anyone else in this field. And the last two times she's run. She's been caught a little bit wide and she just is kind of not kicked it in as well as I thought she would have. And I admit I've been kind of chasing this Philly. So if you I like her, don't you have to fluffy socks a little bit? Well, I have her in the Lake George. The fact of the matter is is that I like a lot of them in this field. It's a very evenly matched field. But price wise, first, I think the one you can count on the most is higher truth, price wise the one that intrigues me the most is runaway winner. It doesn't mean I don't think harajuku can win. It doesn't mean I don't think Jordan Jordan's Leo or fluffy socks can't win. Obviously plum Ali has races that make her very dangerous. She's another one that really just hasn't come forward since when she was a two year old Philly. In fact, she hasn't won since she was a two year old. So a lot of different ways you can go, I'm going to be using fours and 5s, though, in these sands point, it's the grade two sands point goes as ray 6 tomorrow at Belmont park. Over at keeneland, the feature race of the day is the grade one, Queen Elizabeth II challenge cup, three year old Phillies running a mile in an 8th on the turf, and the purse is $500,000 now. I'm actually in Lexington, Kentucky right now, Dave. It's been raining most of the afternoon today. It is supposed to rain throughout the night. It's supposed to be gone by 6 a.m. tomorrow. Now they did run on the turf today at keeneland, despite it raining most of the afternoon. We'll see what happens with it raining all night. My guess is with this ween a grade one event that they will at least run this race on the turf hopefully they just keep the entire card tomorrow on the turf. But I wouldn't be surprised if it is less than for the Queen Elizabeth II challenge cup. And once again, a good field of Phillies here going to post. We've got a field of ten and Chad Brown, as always, has a say in these races. He may have the two favorites in the race. They're not favorite on the morning line. Number four Empress Josephine for Aidan O'Brien is three to one on the morning line, but the second and third choices are Chad Brown trainees chantel Sara and technical analysis. And you know when it's Chad Brown and Mike dub like Shanna sorrow or a Chad Brown and Clare of its Staples like technical analysis, those are among the better horses in his barn. I think both of those make a lot of sense. I like Empress Josephine better than this field. I thought last time out in the First Lady at keeneland, she ran a strong maybe not spectacular third. I thought the race is in Europe. We're really good. If it's a little soft, I think that's a good sign. I don't think she's gonna be dramatically overbed. I think you're gonna get something in the 7 to two range. I think she's better than this field and I think she'll win. The one horse that intrigues me the most is ain't no Brian's son, and he's got several sons in training and they've beaten him occasionally even in North America. Nicest number 5, ten to one, I think that's a really good price on that horse. Probably gonna play underneath might not win the race. I like Empress Josephine best. I think necessarily good value. Okay, so Empress Josephine no. Four for Dave also using number 5 nicest basically Euros in here. I'm going to go with the USA contingent, I like Santa Sara. I think slightly over technical analysis..