Saudi Aramco, Saudi Government, Sabic discussed on BTV Simulcast
Thanks. Still looking pretty flat when it comes to Asian stocks it Peter out a little bit. We're pretty much flat on your regional benchmark here at the moment after the decent game that we saw on Monday here. So there is this sense of consolidation when it comes to stocks, despite the fact that yields are backing up again when it comes to global bond markets key to know, though is some key crucial levels that we are reaching for the sense sex. We are at record highs right now from right now thirty eight thousand eight hundred ninety or so Hang Seng as well. After entering bull run. We are slightly higher by about one tenth of one percent, but engine closer thirty thousand level as well. I really join the ranks like China in the bull market run. Nj GP's interesting to know just now that we did see a pretty strong bond auction there, despite the fact that these are looking a little bit expensive at eight and negative eight basis points, I should say the strongest bid to cover ratio we've seen in thirteen years, which is quite remarkable. We are seeing yields just lower by about one. Basis points here. Take a look at this terminal chart, though, we take a look at the risk on rally that we've seen and everyone's saying that look it's the Chinese my turning that really is lifting all boats here to what extent that actually means the same as it did in previous stimulus cycles, perhaps as a little bit different this time around because China this time is focusing a little bit more on domestic demand and boosting back. So perhaps. Is not going to benefit as much on Chinese stimulus than it has four. And we certainly are seeing that here this robust violent rally that we saw the beginning of the year and yellow here is China the rest of the white there is emerging markets as well. We'll show you some of the movers that we're watching in particular. We have earnings obviously front and center Rocketdyne is one that we're watching though we're following something about four and a half percent in Tokyo here today, this is after we saw list the stock price there, go below its IPO price after that debut. So racket time being one of the big shareholders of lift they are falling out of favor as well. While Joe auto earnings came out, it seems that the Chinese auto slowdown here really weighing on earnings here. A sock down some four percent galaxy entertainment one of the big movers on the Hang Seng here today, the Macau gaming revenue for March wasn't as bad as what analysts were expecting. They're expecting about a three percent drop. We were slightly higher than that still negative territory by about zero point three percent. But still we are. Are seeing a bit of a relief rally and some of these casino stocks and Han. Hi searching for a second day here today, strong profits a surprise profit gain here for the fourth quarter, certainly making the analysts pretty excited. They're yousef. Thanks very much for now. Let's get back to this part of the world. Talk about Saudi Aramco. It is the world's most profitable company. But that's still might not be enough to persuade investors that the energy behemoth is worse the kingdom's aspirational figure of two trillion dollars. Now, you financial details disclosed by Moody's Investor Service show, the company paid slightly more than fifty eight billion dollars in dividends to. So these are the Saudi government last year working back from that Aramco's valuation would be closer to one point two trillion. Investors judge it by the same metrics as the other oil giants out there. Let's bring in our middle. East finance reporter Matthew Martin, Matthew. I was looking at some of the other numbers. Saudi Aramco loses apparently ten thousand barrels a day of oil accidents leaks. What have you zero point one percent of total output? Apparently, they have too much oil to make a big deal out of that the other parts of the accounts. What exactly are we stringing together for the valuation? Well, what you can tell from looking through the accounts. This gives us the first time ever a really detailed look at some of Aramco's accounts. So we can see that they're paying around. Your nearly sixty billion dollars in dividends to the Saudi government. I'm looking at some of the other numbers in there and applying a dividend yield of about five percent, which is the sort of industry. Standard for a lot of energy companies. You can work that back and give around evaluation of almost one point two trillion dollars. So this is still some way off the magic number of of two trillion dollars, which Muhammad bin Salman has said that he thinks the company should be worth. And we've seen a huge amount of work being put in trying to get the company to that valuation. And what we're seeing so far is that it's probably just not there yet. Well, look dividends are incredibly important part of the play overall within the majors. And so to that end, it's not a bad. Benchmark. There is still a pasty fifty eight billion dollars is the top line number, but only fifty two billion that is actually intact. So again, what can the government do to increase the valuation in terms of is it less take for us a little bit more for you, the investor they're they're all a few levers that the government still has that it could tweak. We've already seen them while ago. They changed the way the tax regime worked in the royalty payments works try and Ulta that equation. So you could see the government doing that. Again, the difficulty will be that as the government looks at tweaking that to try to increase the payout that investors will get an of the government will of remain the largest investor in Aramco, the as it looks at tweaking those numbers, the government's take probably will be reduced. And in a situation where Saudi Arabia is in deficit, and it is going out and borrowing in the bond markets, and it has massive investment schemes as well. That he wants to go through whether the government will want to tweak the tax regime gain is going to be a question that will ultimately be up to Mohammed bin Salman. And how much he really wants to push this two trillion. Magic number. It's been a very busy few weeks for Saudi Aramco and for SABIC as well. I mean, an investor on the sidelines looking at this is going to say, well, clearly they're making a lot of progress. They're moving ahead. The train is headed in the right direction. Where does that leave the IPO for Aramco? Well, I think again, you know, it's going to be to Mohammed bin Salman. And how much is he really committed to this two trillion number. We've seen him in interviews. I think at least two or three times he has come out and said that around co is going to be worth that amount. The savage acquisition is going to be is part of the rationale of trying to create Aramco into a more diversified company. Push it downstream pressure into other areas of the energy industry to try it increases valuation. Sabic acquisition alone, though is probably not gonna be enough to push it up to two trillion dollars. So we I think we're still seeing Ramco IPO at at some years off. Okay. Well, certainly they're going to get the dollars in after the Savak accent that gives them the window that they need Massey. Thank you so much that is our middle. East finance reporter, Matthew Monness bring into the conversation director of capital markets at FFA private Bank indivi-. She John's Yousef, and so the valuation. Matthew says two trillion is still a long way away. But the prophet numbers. There's no doubt about it. They they are really quite splendid at one hundred eleven million one hundred eleven million bucks. That's the data that we got yesterday. What do you make of the reveal the big thing? Now. Mannasseh? The earnings are very good earnings. Definitely. And everyone was expecting that. At least new idiot, not many my politics. Sorry. Everyone was expecting good results from Adam Cornell, these come but surprising. They definitely very good news for everyone, and especially for the markets and the Saudi and Saudi and specifically specifically salvage if we're going to look at this point. Okay. Because when we're looking at the company, which is acquiring and mother and in this case, it's acquiring Savak making such huge prophets and SABIC being the top company profitable, profitable wise. Profitability wise, the end the undeterred, our it's something that does investor's attention there too. Big companies that are actually if it in their own sectors. Let's put it that way. 'cause we can't compare to SABIC, but still and we see that kind of acquisition happening, it definitely triggers some sort of positive sentiment. Confidence to investors to go in. Invest in the energy sector in the Saudi market at this point in time. Marie the idea of a lot of capital flowing into the hands of the Saudi government. And that they might we deployed and other ways you consider that Saudi government entities old quite a lot of stock on the two Dowell me. Could this be perhaps a sign that some of the capital gets redirected into back into Saudi equities are on? Now. The thing is when we look at cash or whatever liquidity available with government doesn't always have to be invested in the stock markets in particular in Saudi we've heard a lot about infrastructure. Enhancements and stuff like that doesn't always have to be. Could get to and specifically now if we look at the public investment fund efforts, it's also something they're getting liquidity. And this gives them the long-term sort of investment whether to the government or to the investment funds in order to be able to go further with their infrastructure and their stability around economically. Now, we know you like a Bank let let's give it to the Eubanks. We've done a couple of pieces of not we have we we have Adleman Christie who is our banks research. He's talking about profitability. And this is what I want to gauge your sensitivity to this. He reckons profitability is going to slow down this year from around eleven percent, maybe five to seven percent who or where is the weakest link in the Bank chain. Who the weakest now we've definitely seen a lot of consolidation. So we're going to just get away from those because when consolidation happens we see a lot of strength and the entities. I'm not gonna talk ABC be. I'm not gonna talk at this stage. Not although they have a lot of things going at out at this point in time. But probably look at the smaller banks where we have seen a lot of some issues or some things that we actually of concern to investors. I'm not gonna name importing anything. It's going to be a bit Turkey at this point in time. But as a Yoda portfolio, your analysts have mentioned, we have we have been extremely bullish on the banking sector. And we we are not trying to withdraw docked at this point in time. But there's always a point in time where you need to slow down with your investments and tried to look on profit-taking and the being a bit conservative on how you look at certain things we've seen banks going extremely rallying in the past quarter or so and it's about time. I think we start. Booking prophets and monitoring what's going to happen? Especially with the new changes that are going to take place. Closing thoughts on crude oil and how that might play into some of your calls for some of the Gulf equities scraping backup. Argue this is this is good news now..