I'm John Dexter, This is the John Baxter Show. I welcome Chris Rico, the CEO of Scholars calm. This is the scholar report. We are in the interregnum between the Trump Administration and the Biden administration were also in that pause between when the vaccines exists when they're being distributed. And when we can re open our economies and share again, the prosperity that was here just a moment ago in February, March of 2020, Chris Good evening to you first. Bloomberg has a fetching article today. About reflation, not inflation. You have a global business you travel widely. Inflation is the bugaboo of the 20th century from the sixties, my youth to the eighties, my seniority when I was out of college in New York. Inflation, damaged the U. S economy, inhibited prosperity and crippled the stock market. It went away, but it were people worry about it coming back. In your travels. Reflation is the positive thing. Growth brings what appears to be the growth and prices. Are we seeing that now? Or is it too early to look for reflection? Good evening to you. Even done so far would say it appears to be too early. The financial markets specifically, the stock market has been under a ever growing bubble. When that bubble pops is anyone's guess, but because there's so much money that's being invested into the system from government subsidy and other so you have an inflationary bubble around assets, stocks, homes and others. The said in the U. S government over the last, say 25 30 years his spent in order an amount of time trying to minimize inflation have that healthy what they would consider a 2% inflation rate. Fearing that the best way to maximize jobs and reach full employment. The challenge now being there so many artificial factors impacting the economy from stimulus to the virus to other, it's hard to get a good read, but in general inflation is good. If you do not have inflation, If you don't have growth in wages, another you risk what happened to Japan in the nineties of a deflationary cycle that is something very difficult to break out of. The politics of the moment include President elect Joe Biden. Announcing another relief plan. Another stimulus package of nearly true $2 trillion, including minimum wage to be raised federally to $15 and larger checks to be mailed out to individuals, whether they're working or not. In addition to emergency aid for states and local governments, in particular large cities such as the one I'm in that has a budget gap. Will that to your measure, help the small businesses that you watch? Struggle as you travel across the country, Chris It effectively. This was simply a sugar high. The government is putting money in people's pockets because it's politically popular to do so the on leeway to get many of the businesses that are challenged in this pandemic. Um to Ah, good state is to reopen the economy's get the vaccine out and try to return to normal quickly as possible. The government cannot print us out of This business cycle and all we're doing is delaying the pain. Chicago Lori Lightfoot, the mayor of Chicago, who has been through a difficult year of turmoil, and, of course, the shutdown in the pandemic. Is announcing. In some fashion everything here is a little caged. But in some fashion, there will be a reopening of restaurants and bars and other places where people can meet. Because the reason is given the private gatherings are not regulated and their ah source of infection. In addition, the economy is broken and reopening with people. Given the right to proceed carefully or not, is a way forward for Chicago. We also have a governor in New York Governor Cuomo. Who says that he's studying reopening the bars, the restaurants, the casinos, the theaters because, as the governor says, If we don't have reopened the economy, we won't have one to reopen. Is this a positive Chris? Or are they teasing us again? It's a positive, but I would say in traveling last several weeks in many states, both blue and red in many cities, both blue and red. Many of the restaurants and bars are reopening on their own on the simple basis that if they do not reopen They're out of business, and you have people's livelihood that have been taken away by the government. Now for months after month after month after month, they have nothing to lose. So they would favor taking a fine or penalty or risk to, at least have a chance of staying alive, as opposed to guaranteed death by staying closed, So I think the Governors and some of the mayor's air saying, Well, we're going to reopen into it gradually, that's already happening. People have had enough and they're taking back their freedom. The puzzle is the vaccine is here. And the decision to distribute the vaccine is in the hands of state government, city governments, municipalities counties. And they're mixed stories. You point me to one story about the states that are doing best for distribution of the vaccine. They get their limited numbers of vaccines, a cloud each week and each week the steak. It's a new supply and is charged with the distribution. That's simple enough. West Virginia, you point to, and I believe North Dakota are doing very well. New York is not doing well. California is not doing well. Is that the nature of big government? Chris? We shouldn't ask too much from people who regarded the post office as acceptable behavior these many decades. Fascinating. The see Some of these governors specifically blue state governors who have said We're waiting on federal ex federal y federal Z. We're waiting on a vaccine. Okay, Now you've got it. Who will hold the governor's accountable for that distribution, making sure within those States and across the country that that's done in efficient away as possible in West Virginia, where they're having great success. They operational honest the National Guard to spearhead that distribution so government can do things right. If they're smart enough, they're focused on it. But now we're starting to peel away the politics and get to the reality of how fast can you get this distributed out? You have a global business, so I wanna make everybody in America feel better. By asking. How is Europe doing right now? What you know from your colleagues. Europe is most certainly in the increasingly darkest of dark winters, where in the UK in the Netherlands in Germany, and many of the countries there now locked down to their houses, with the only ability to go out. You go to purchase food, But you're seeing an increasingly tight lockdown and also increasingly despondent and angered citizenry saying, How long can this continue? Is there food security? What do you hear, Chris? In the UK Specifically, we're getting reports from our employees there that shelves are starting to become more and more bear and with the action that Mr Johnson took today to further shut off. The UK from all air transit in all transit in and out of the country. The fear would be It's only going to get worse. All right, so that makes us feel better because it's not that bad here in l. A. I'm told that One third of the people have already been tested positive or recovered from the virus. The lockdowns have not succeeded. If that was the aim, what would have been worse than one third? I guess his two thirds However, I'm also told from a colleague that there's generally people not obeying the mandates of staying home or not going out. That doesn't mean that businesses are reopening. But it does mean that it might. We might have reached a point in California where the government is not to be trusted. You travel widely, Chris Are there mixed stories across the country? As the newspapers say, the Red States air open. The blue states are not our their pockets everywhere. Their pockets everywhere and you're also just seeing people that have had enough. I think the populace seeks to comply and seeks to do the right thing. But it's very difficult to say to someone who does not have a job cannot afford to pay the mortgage or buy food or Christmas gifts for the kids. You need to stay home..