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Automatic TRANSCRIPT

And they're kind of testing things along the way. Jason Schenker of Ben Bernanke key, former chair the Federal Reserve said that long-term low interest rates low long-term interest rates around the world since the financial crisis have made the job of central banking, more difficult. Can you comment on that? Yeah. I mean, there's a couple of things around this. Right. I mean, look there were folks who've made managing director at some of the world's biggest investment banks who at the time where they made in D had never seen a fed rate hike had never seen interest rates of Vero. So what happens is this your first point about mixing financial market understanding with macroeconomic theory. What happens if you have practitioners who never seen? Recessions never seen a downturn. Never seen interest rate. I it increases uncertainty because decision makers in funds and in corporations are really going to be looking at their their first Pence of these things that introduces uncertainty and risk in terms of actual corporate actions, capitalizations and and other damage in financial architecture content. Right now. I just want to bring you up to speed because we are seeing a very big rally in US equity markets. The NASDAQ is up three point seven percent. Ten year. Treasury yields are experiencing their biggest sell-off by at least one measure in at least a year. So Jason I'm just wondering going forward here. What do we need to see to sustain this rally in risk assets? And sort of the the pain that we're seeing in the safe bond. Well, I think the most important thing from a technical standpoint in the equity markets for the last five years has been hundred twenty moving average. We're well below that on the NASDAQ. And the Dow if we were to go back above that. I think there'd be you know, a lot more room above. But right now, we're still in a in a zone that's reflecting a lot of pressure uncertainty and risk. I think as we look forward at the data housing date is going to be important auto date is going to be important in business investment in the watch that line item in the next couple of GDP airports. I think that's gonna be really really important because there's a lot of risk there as you see higher interest rates companies by the Ford a lot of their purchases into twenty eight teen presents downside risk to those sectors in twenty nine hundred. Ben, Burnett key said that expansions don't die of old age that they get murdered. Do you agree? Well, you know, I think it it might be more that they die unexpectedly right and burn kit and probably to hit reference sort of what the expectations were before the financial crisis. And you know, here we are, you know, ten years plus later, I think that it comes surprise to many win the things go bad. They tend to go bad a lot more quickly than people in -ticipant. And so it doesn't have old age. It's sort of swiftly once the smart money knows that the party's over. Thanks very much for being with us. Jason Schenker is the president of prestige economics. Also, the chairman of the futures institute and a Bloomberg opinion contributor based in Austin, Texas, and you can follow Jason and his work on Twitter at the prestige econ..