Ba'ath Party, Saddam Hussein, Raqqa discussed on

KQED Radio
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Automatic TRANSCRIPT

The first ones we announce the d basf occasion program ba'ath party was saddam hussein's that the party for which he governed it was sunnidominated and we officially banned many involvement in government so they were they were fire and it went down fairly deep because i remember reading there's an on paper i did were actually did apply these this logic to the case of iraq so de basf occasion in effect you've created a political organization to run insurgency the second mistake was we we essentially cashier the iraqi army uh so now all of a sudden on a potential rebel group has a an organized trained and equipped army they don't have to recruit individuals and trained them uh over a long period of time we owe a regular army and in a third thing was a rather sudden privatization of all stateowned assets in raqqa which meant a lot of those shutdown in people lost their jobs so now you have a large civilian population with grievances against the current government so those are the three elements you need to mount an insurgency lo and behold there we had one there is a gruesome category called death rate uh this has fluctuated time in iraq but a theory is that as more people died the pressure mounts for a settlement well actually this was the one finding that it turns out the our expectations were wrong we would expect that the higher the casualty rates the more willing both it would be too to make a peace agreement the evidence is been pretty consistent that in fact the opposite happens the bloody of the civil war is the less able they aren't reach a settlement i i think probably was the reason for that is this less.

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