A new story from Bloomberg Surveillance


With us right now i saw hockey stick chart on manufacturing in america doesn't matter details are the answer is it's something we're not used to i have a chart that went back i got a explosion of the million years ago of manufacturing labor to our nation in america and basically the back was broken in nineteen seventy and then really broken in two thousand can we have a manufacturing renaissance in america well we can we can have uh... it increasing share of manufacturing uh... uh... in the economy uh... but these are things slow moving beast in the decline in manufacturing over time is taking decades uh... to play out with larger step downs as you said in the seventies and then is after the w t o in china's rise right more more pronounced after that uh... and so i think you know i think we've got something exciting going on right now i think we're digging into the data and we're seeing that and especially if you go around the country you talk to small manufacturers in the country which i have done and they'll tell you that they're starting to get more and more domestic orders of people that are onshoring and they're feeling the effect of they at least feel that their business is picking up now uh... this feels like it could be the start of something we're seeing something there is some onshoring story there there's some nearshoring story there i think the story around mexico's benefit nearshoring is exciting there is a lot of infrastructure building going on across the country um... state and local governments have been ramping up hiring around that as well so i think there's something going on in manufacturing here that is exciting but that's a smaller share of the economy than the services and katie one of the unspoken zero through june is is mexican peso stunning in its Mexican peso strength through twenty through nineteen through eighteen you're gonna get a sixteen handle on mexican peso at some point which is i never thought i'd see that yeah and it's you know important to remember because we talk how about strong and resilient the dollar has been all the time but there's definitely some pairs where that is quite not true but allen of course we have you on monday we get the jobs report on friday is there anything that we could get it eight thirty a m on friday that would take the fed off the course for twenty five basis hike later this month yes we've given us a lot of thought so we we have these road maps to each fed decision that we produce of here's the what we think the data will look like in hand and this is what we think their response will be and because it seems like yet yesterday to dependent but it feels like they're sort of locked in for this july hanging uh... i the think the bar is just a lot lower than we thought it would be uh... that they you would have to uh... for the data to say don't hike and so i think it would be a payroll print less than a hundred thousand because right really that would get the market thinking maybe they're not gonna hike in july and then still wait for that c p i print to do the rest of the the job what if you got a downside surprise in cpa as well then i think that would be the final uh... you know box to tick off the says okay doesn't have to be a july hike right i think it would still keep the fed saying hey there still may be more to do i think there's still been asymmetric hiking bias but i think it would have to be some pretty big downward misses for them to not hike hike in july yeah definitely an important point that we do have a c p i before we do get to that july vision but when you look at and i don't want to get too short term here but when you look at sort of the expectations that are baked in for the fed to go ahead in july for you know probably the labor strength that we've been seeing to continue with june's report what do you think would prompt the bigger reaction in markets is it is it an upside surprise or a downside surprise you know i think it would be a downside surprise because the the market is is you know the fed's been really successful here the market is saying okay they're on this hiking bias and we're gonna uh... i give them the benefit of the doubt that it could be two additional hikes from here not just one additional hiker no hikes or even pushing out the expectation they could be cutting before the end of the year i think the market has really grabbed onto that narrative and the data has helped support that so i think it would be a downside surprise it would probably get bigger the reaction are we partitioned where part of the american public has a two percent unemployment rate and another part of the public has a seven percent unemployment rate yeah how does morgan i can only see the quintile makeup or decile makeup well look it's more around you know sort the poor the bottom decile has done well off the pandemic right they have from government support which is now ended uh... they have off of a tight labor market which is increased labor income and wage growth uh... especially for low wage paying service sectors but we're only just now seeing real wage gains positive so it was really you know inflation was still saying wage gains for those folks divergence between sort of those with a seven percent unemployment rate and those with a two percent it's really you go all the way to like a thirteen percent unemployment rate and those with a two that has always been the case it's always been the case so what i look at is has unemployment rate been been improving across all uh... all of of uh... by ethnicity uh... by age uh... by geographic location like has it been improving across all groups guess it has uh... and we are back to the kind of uh... tight labor market for the the most underserved in the country being just as good or as tight as it was pre -pandemic yeah i i look at this and alan you know you they know said to me can we get center for the monday before fourth of july and stream and and and and chile as well but you know folks this is really a sacrifice on the part of the ellen zentner because she's going to take an infinite fly rod that i can't afford and go out in the river this is you the zentner don't know fly fishing with zentner did you do the saltwater thing the seychelles not as big on saltwater fly fishing i do like saltwater but not to fly you go to jackson yeah you go to jackson all the smith river salmon river jellystone river and all all of it but patagonia we had listeners today emailing in from with your appearance here today and there's like the rio simpson like chile is like huge trout and fishing the

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