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Senate, Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton discussed on The Ezra Klein Show


I believe the president went to wasa in the central part of the state the Democrats managed to defeat. Scott walker. A long held liberal dream there in his bid for a third term, and they will take the governorship and Tammy Baldwin was easily reelected to the Senate as other midwestern Democrats were but at the same time, I don't believe the Democrats made any gains in the Wisconsin legislature. And they may even have lost a seat because of that high turn out in the rural areas, so you know, most districts, including Republican districts swung more democratic in two thousand eighteen than they'd been in two thousand sixteen the Republican gains in the house now looking at like between thirty five and forty that's a big number. But there were a lot of Senate races that the polling had showed to be more competitive than they ended up being so Claire mccaskill and Missouri Joe Donnelly, and Indiana, they both beat Hillary Clinton's margins in those states, but they both lost. Those Senate races as Republicans in those states. We're motivated to come out and vote almost at the levels that the Democrats were the thing that seem to underscore to me was it. We're just existing in a period where elections work off of logic of polarization and their first and foremost about what kind of state or district you're in. And then their second about the level of mobilization among the two sides. It's very straightforward formula. But it doesn't seem to really be a formula anymore. That has anything to do with persuasion. You lot more reporting among campaign aides and strategists than I do, but I've talked to a couple of them in the past couple of years who've told me that they feel their job used to be about persuading people. And now it's about mobilizing people. And I wonder how much the Trump strategy and just turn out we've seen reflects that that, you know, now, you know, you wanna win election. Just like if you've got favorable geography than what you need to do is mobile. Is. And like, that's it. Like that is how politics works now. Well, it is true that politics now and probably always has been about getting more votes than the other side, and I'm teasing a little bit. But I think you could make the opposite case in fact because number one we are seeing swings. Among voters. We are seeing you know, Trump has lost a lot of ground since he was elected in terms of his approval rating. I believe it was Dave Wasserman at the cook report pointed out every house district that supported Trump by less than five points was taken by a democrat in this mid term. So those are districts that are swinging and some of it is just that some people voting and others aren't but some of it is that people are moving, particularly my demographic college educated white suburban women, that's a real phenomenon. That's something you certainly see anecdotally when you report on these places when you report on something like the Alabama Senate election or Georgia six from the past year. And that is what has Republicans so nervous because you have the president executing seemingly successful base strategy. But at the same time alienating those.

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