Jack, Jonathan Bamber, Louisiana discussed on PRI's The World
It made him think about home and mardi gras in French Creole, Louisiana's like a huge melting pot in the know that, that may be all wiped away because of some glaciers melting that we may have contributed to maybe, maybe not it's like damn we gotta get it. Together. Jack isn't totally convinced that climate change is manmade, even though that science is clear, but he does now it's happening. And by the end of the trip home suddenly felt even more precious. It it opens. My eyes. It makes me appreciate it. That much more. The trip also opened his eyes to Antarctica. He wants to come back someday. But he says, I'll always return to Louisiana for the world. Caroline Bieler cooking dinner for sixty people. Is a true, balancing act when the ship is being tossed by ways check out photos of Jack more inaction in the ship's galley, that's on our Instagram feed, we're at PRI the world. Meanwhile, Jack got good reason to worry about his hometown. New Orleans is one of the places that could be almost completely underwater by the end of the century, a new report in the proceedings of the national academies of sciences shows. There's a significant chance that global sea levels could rise by as much as two meters by the year, twenty one hundred that's six and a half feet. Jonathan Bamber of the university of Bristol in the UK is the lead author of the study is not saying that this is what will happen. But it does find that there's a chance that it could is that correct? And what, what is the probability, I think you've made the critical coin. About study, which hasn't always been picked up by all the media, which is the we're not saying that's the most likely scenario. We're not saying that's the most probable, but we're saying that there is a real plausible probability, we put it at about five percent, the sea level could exceed two meters in the worst case emission scenario that we use, which is well, it's business as usual. Yes. So what exactly was done differently or model differently than others in the past to reach this conclusion? So this is not a numerical modeling study. What we did in this study was we go together, twenty two international experts to identify what thanked collective understanding of what the ice sheets would do over the next century. In fact, next few centuries was based on different coming warming snores. So there's a five percent certainty that the big scary scenario in your study Jonathan will come to pass. Do you think that is a small probability? And if. It is mall. What is the value of doing this kind of research, a case? A relatively small culpability too. I kind of put it in context by saying that I guarantee you got on a plane mice as well as a five cent Jones. It's gonna fall out the sky you'd get off it straightaway. So, for example, I you know, I, I've been speaking to someone who is involved in planning for the San Francisco Bay area, and it's not the main seal of rice that they need to worry about it's the extremes. It's these low probability, high impact events. If we weren't interested in Maine by this, then we would never build, you know, any buildings in San Francisco to withstand quake, because, you know, the likelihood is, it's not going to happen. But when it does happen, the consequences of very, very serious. And it's exactly the same with these high end projections facility Ross, so between the worst case scenario and the best case scenario on I mean even. Far short of the worst case scenario. There's going to be a lot of impact. Correct us..