Mitchell Hartmann, Kate, Morning Edition discussed on Marketplace
In Los Angeles on fire is not it is Friday. Today, everybody the fourth day of September. Good as always to have you along. A macro and an economic number of the day as this pandemic get set to enter its seventh month if you can believe that is 1.37 million that his jobs added to this economy in the month of August. Three million people had been temporarily laid off came back to work and that helped bring the unemployment rate down. Almost 2% points to 8.4%. All of that is good. Like I said. But a chunk of those jobs a quarter million or so our temporary census workers. We're going to be out of work again soon. And more to the point. Job growth is slowing a million plus in August, as I said it was nearly five million a month back in June. What else would you bear in mind? Marketplaces? Mitchell Hartmann is on the putting The jobs report in context beat today. This economy has been through a lot since mid March. About 15% of all the jobs in America evaporated in just a few weeks. We've been clawing back those jobs ever since. Here's how Brad McMillan at Commonwealth Financial Network rates the latest report. It was good. It wasn't great, but it was certainly solid, it says. We're continuing to make progress, but we also have a long way to go. Gaining 1.4 million jobs would be blockbuster in normal times. But economist Beth Acres at the Manhattan Institute says Now that number may be giving the impression that we're doing pretty well digging out of this hole. But the reality is that world about halfway out a little over 10 million of the 22 Million jobs we've lost have come back and job gains air slowing. Baker says. This is really a tale of two recoveries. Employment levels for higher income workers have almost come back to pre crisis level. Where is employment levels for low wage workers remain significantly below where they were, and it's also unclear when those workers will be able to get back to work. Jobs in bars and restaurants, for instance, are still down 25% from before the pandemic, which leaves a lot of workers out of the recovery so far. Like Cody Sorenson, he's 33 worked as a server at an upscale Italian restaurant in West Hollywood until mid March. Sorenson's on indefinite layoff. He's still getting health benefits and a $400 a week unemployment, Jack when that runs out, I mean, I'm just gonna have to go and find another job or I'm just going to move. I guess back on the Texas you know where he hopes they'll be less competition for any new jobs that come up. I'm Mitchell Hartmann for marketplace. All right, with that, as backdrop, let's dig in a little bit on jobs and the other news of the day. And this week, genius Milik is with The New York Times, K. Davidson. Is that the walls Street journal? You too. I can't. Let me start with you. Ah, picking up on Mitchell's spot, and he gave a nod to this, but I want to. I want to make sure people get it. There is despite this good, not great report today. There's some underlying fragility in this economy. Right? 29 million people on some kind of unemployment benefit small businesses closing left and right, Yeah. That's right. A cz You sort of hinted at sky. It was kind of it was kind of a mixed report. You know, on the one hand 8.4% Unemployment is much lower than where many people thought we'd be at this point, But things are still really bad. And I guess the thing to understand is that the people who are still out of work, many of them are people at the lower end of the wage scale that have jobs and industries that have been harder hit by the pandemic. Hotel workers, restaurant workers, people in industries Are still struggling to come back on. The longer these people stay out of work. The risk is that those more and more of those job loss has become become permanent. So it's on the right track. But you know a long way to go still. Those permanent job losses that longstanding damage the economy. Gina is something Fisher pal talks about a lot. Hey, gave an interview to morning Edition. The morning is gonna air. I think on Monday the transcript is out for those who wanted again. I wantto parts a couple of things, he said. Number one. Low interest rates in this economy are going to be here, and this is quoting pal for a period measured in years. That is, I mean, it's kind of we know it, but it's kind of amazing. Yeah, yeah, no surprise to bond markets, which are, you know, obviously recognizing that we're in for a really long period of low interest rates, But I think that Yeah, it's It's remarkable if you remember back to 2007 to 2009 recession and, you know, sort of within within, not a very long time span people we're talking about, you know, when is left off? When is the fed going to raise rates? You know what? When did they start moving this extraordinary accommodation and I feel like you know in the Oval Decade. That conversation is just fundamentally shift and shifted. And a lot of that was T drum pal who has been very clear about communicating that we're in this regeneration. You know, they're not planning on just like immediately raising rates as soon as we get past sort of the worst through this recession. We're in this this environment for a really long time until the job market has, you know he owed and really, after what The fact is, they don't quite clearly is until inflation picks up. Which goes back to what he was talking about last week in pseudo Jackson Hole, As or Kate, one of the other things that pallet talked about with morning Edition today is Ah debt and fiscal policy and specifically, he said, You know what? We need help now in fiscal policy. This is not the time to worry about debt and fixing that structure, which goes to a piece You wrote this week about the size of the federal debt and how it's going to be this coming fiscal years as big as the entire economy. That's right. We've seen since March, given all the spending to fight the pandemic and tax revenues going down because people out of work the debt to GDP ratio that is, the level of death that we have compared to the size of the economy is almost at 100%. And at the end of last year for just some point of reference, it was just about 80%. That's a huge jump. Doesn't mean anything, though. I think if we listen to what chair Pal was saying, and like, Gina said, we look at bond markets. They're kind of saying Not really. Interest rates are so low and that means that the government can borrow with, you know for very, very little money for lack of a better term. You know, the costs of that dead are going down and the Congressional Budget Office put out a report this week saying that despite this, you know Serious, significant deterioration in the economic outlook. Despite all the sex, you're spending, they actually see us spending less over the next 10 years on interest costs than they did in March before the pandemic, which is just really remarkable, and that suggests that we still have a lot of room to borrow. And so you have, you know, legislators and and a lot of economists, frankly saying There's no reason not to do this. We can't afford this. We should be spending more to support the economy right now. And even if it adds to the debt, it's well worth it. Yeah, but look, you know, I super don't want to get political on this because it's it's really front. But you can see and we have seen in the past number of months. The idea of Oh my goodness. Federal debt. We have to cut cut cut becoming a factor in this election, right? I think certainly you do see that. I think I think certainly you here a little bit of about it from Senate Republicans in particular, it was notable that you didn't hear anything about it at the RNC at the Republican National Convention last week, basically no mention of the data the deficit, which makes sense piece, it's run up dramatically under President Trump's leadership. I imagine that will change after the election, depending on who who's in office. But I do think it is a really interesting question to watch sort of how the politics of debt change. As as Kate mentioned, you know, we clearly leave some of these historical limitations on what it means to run a big national debt in the past, along with higher interest rates. Kate. How do you stop people like just who read The Wall Street journal New York Times and Freak out about the fact that the dead is so big. It is a scary number and people sort of look at it and go. Oh, my goodness. We have to stop. It's so hard..