David Eric, Charlie Bakers, Sadie Lady discussed on The Jason Beem Horse Racing Podcast
Racing podcast brought to you by twin spires. All right, big thanks to a scotch bureau James for joining us for the weekly Friday jury. Always good to talk with them and excited to look ahead to some of what's going on this weekend. I mentioned the Garland of roses and aqueduct and we'll start there because it's kind of an interesting race. My the first thing I noticed was I looked at the prime power numbers and it was like 5 of the 7 are right. I mean, within a point and a half of each other, so I thought, okay, I'm prime power is usually a pretty good indicator of morning line and you know just kind of final odd. It's just not always, but a lot of times. So then I look and the great David Eric on who does a great job at the morning line has glass ceiling. It's 6 to 5. And coming off a second place finish. Now, behind lady rocket, who we know came back in one with ease, just the other day. You know, ahead of Lake avenue who we know is a pretty decent runner and you know the horse comes in fine form. That was its first stakes try, really. I mean, they claimed this horse for 40,000 5 starts ago and Charlie bakers had her, you know, just kind of steadily getting better. It wasn't like this quick improvement ran second then fourth in a race that wasn't very good and then since then nice third really good win and then very nice second last time out in the stakes. Just seems to be on the upswing. So I get the favoritism and the race looks like I was trying to think because there is some speed in here, but it looks like Sadie lady is the main speed. She sticks to one in the morning line and she, you know, she's very good at aqueduct. She's 5 for 8. She's no seconds and no thirds. And this is the case with a lot of horses like this, right? Like it's when or it's not. And a lot of times if they get headed early, they finish off the board. Now, can a horse like this finish second or third of course? But it does seem like it's a little bit of a feast or famine kind of thing and I always think about this when people play exact as and box with a horse like this and I'm thinking this is the one you want to use either on top or not at all. Like I said, could they finish that picture? Somebody could nail them in the last jump or something, but I feel like this horse is literally run second once in 21 starts. 8 wins three thirds and then a lot of off the boards. And so, like I said, there is other speed. Song river to the outside has a little bit of good early speed for Sharia. Sharif Barnes had a great 2021, almost 20%. And this one comes over from church. I'm curious to see how the Churchill shippers do is they spread out because there's another one in here as well. Just read it for right hand, who I kinda like this horse was a real impressive maiden winter and aqueduct last year is two for three locally at aqueduct and the only loss was in the debut. And so and then came back and won the cicada stakes in March. But the first start back off the layoff at Churchill was in a, you know, an optional $100,000 race and 6 wide and ended up finishing third. Churchill's to me is not a track that you want to try to come rally from well off the pace and wide on, at least the main track, even though there was a pretty honest pace that day. I just think the second time off the layoff and with potentially a fair amount of speed. Like I said, Sadie lady could just slip away and you know and be gonzo. There's also the Chad Brown horse to talk about star front for jud Mott who was a wire to wire winner first time out and then last couple times didn't make the lead. And really kind of lost lengths in each of those next two starts. Including the pumpkin pie back on October the 31st. So, but was there two divisions of the pumpkin pie? There must have been. Because glass ceiling ran second in one of them and didn't run second in the pumpkin pie listed on this one. Yeah, it was the 6th race for that one and glass ceiling was the 8th race. I guess there was who knew there was two pumpkin pies. I guess we do now. But yeah, the star front one, it's funny because on optics they had this horse as potentially a pretty good closer. And I'm sorry, no, they did. No, I'm misreading it. They had just read it. That was the other reason. That was kind of the reason I went back to look at just Reddit, because I was like, oh, this horse is optics finishing, you know, should be good. And like I said, it made sense to me the horse didn't close that much. So at a big price, I think just read it is a little bit interesting in this race and it should be kind of back there with glass ceiling and they should kind of be around the same spot, I feel like early on and whoever can obviously kick the most if the leaders come back could be the more dangerous of the two. Over at Gulfstream park, beautiful Gulfstream park, the championship meet the claiming crowd, obviously the headline of the first weekend, but now we start getting into the greatest stakes races here over the next few weeks and months. And the mister prospector for the older runners, the second Gulf Stream start for Dennis moment. If you remember the fountain of youth, he had run so bad in the breeders cup juvenile, then he came back in the fountain of youth and just never ran a step was beating.