Boris' battle for Brexit

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Automatic TRANSCRIPT

Brexit circus continues in the UK and it's been more than threes since the biggest ever democratic vote in British history threes since more than thirty three million people went to the polls in a referendum threes since that vote authorize Britain's departure from the EU and yet Britain has filed to leave why I remember Boris Johnson's Dude manifesto deliver unite and defeat was the perfect acronym for election campaign since unfortunately it spills done but they forgot the final e my friends either energize. I say I say to all the dodgers dude food. We are going to the country. We're GONNA get Brits. It does deliver. WE'LL BREXIT is likely to be delayed again. Unite well as Britain conservatives who are divided more than ever defeat will. It's Boris who suffered several parliamentary defeats in the past week and energize is well. It's the reminders at least those in Westminster who are in so what on earth is going on so I'm in heaven is a high profile British commentator Haida and historian of more than three decades. He writes a regular column in the daily and Sunday Telegraph as well as the New Statesman. He's also a professor of history at the university city of Buckingham his new book staring at God version nineteen fourteen two nine hundred nineteen. That's published by Random House this month salmon. Welcome back to Irun. Thank you very much tom now. Give us a sense of where things stand with brexit well. We're supposed to believe in the European Union on the thirty first of October but apartment passed a law last week which was nothing to do with the government. It was the day that the opposition seize control of business in parliament of the law was to force Boris Johnson as prime minister to go to Brussels to ask for an extension until the thirty first of January he has said since then he won't do it if he doesn't do it he's breaking the law and he could be held in contempt of court and sent to prison so we're waiting to see what happens of course if he does go ask for the the extension. His credibility is completely torpedoed because ever since he started to fight his campaign for the Tory leadership in the summer it was on the basis that we would be leaving as he said do all die on the thirty first of October and if he does Austrian extension there's no guarantee also that the European Union will grant it it has it has to be grounded by unanimity of the other twenty seven members and they've been briefings over the last weekend from France that President Mackerel thinks we're just wasting wasting our time and the two where taking the Mickey out of the European Union. We leave immediately. We'll get to that in a moment but back to boras use side that he's credibility they will be damaged if he supports deadline of past the Halloween deadline of toby thirty one but surely some blog you'd that he's credibility is damaged because he has is expelled from the party twenty. One reminder rebels yeah. He's had a very difficult couple of weeks because he's strategist school dominic cummings who isn't isn't a member of the Conservative Party and isn't elected by anybody who has taken a scorched earth approach to those in the Conservative Party who oppose the idea that we might leave without a deal and Cummings Senator Johnson ten days ago have a force of Eight on this. If you lose the vote then throw out anybody who from your inside inside events against you and he is thrown out twenty one people including several former cabinet minister to X. Chancellors of the Exchequer an excellent translator and Nicholas serves Winston Churchill's grandson this caused tremendous outrage in in the Conservative Party in the country scorched earth tactics worthy of Donald Trump and that play will in a parliamentary. It's read democracy. It's very difficult and particularly in our parliamentary democracy add in Arkansas Seventy party whether there's always been ided individual constituency associations associations who choose candidates to become. MP's are independent of the center and can do more or less what they want and this is a very centralist almost dictatorship issue style way to run a political party which doesn't what one of the democracy okay well. The Commons has essentially overridden the prime minister by extending this deadline three months past October October thirty one but as you said before and as the support of all of the European Union governments what's the French likely to do well. France is is a problem and the European Union is not happy ship that the its adherence lighter percentages whenever there's an opinion poll in France it's neck and neck about whether French themselves ought to stay in the EU really yeah because they feel that this national sovereignty and their identity is French. People has been compromised by this also. They didn't like the fact act that they like the Germans are subsidizing other poorer countries who des necessary share all values in the suddenly anywhere near economically successful missile defenses in France the sixth biggest economy in the world we in Britain to the fifth so there's a lot of unrest about the European Union about interference in French live but President Macron Macron who of course his enemies early forties aspires to be the leader of Europe Anglo muckleshoot twenty five years older than him hasn't been well recently. She's twice while almost fainted in public appearances is standing down at the next election and she may not last much longer and it'd be a vacancy for the key player in Europe and macrumors to be that keyplayer he has a program he has a an idea of greater integration an almost federalization of Europe and he knows that written. If it were to stay in your opinion it will be completely opposed to that and so he wants personnel descriptors from your perspective from the perspective of other Conservative brexit tease you think the French could rescue rescue you by rejecting the the extension of the deadline yeah quite conceivable. They've changed their tune two or three times on this but then as recent word to come out of you've Paris last weekend was the British if granted a three-month extension would simply wasted. They've got no plan. There's negotiations getting on they haven't got a strategy to solve the problems that were in the deal that tourism April at Parliament in which was defeated three times because of its inadequacies and so the French are saying that foreign minister only real who spoke Sunday they're saying through him. We think the British had enough and we want to get them out so just say the French do due indeed reject this feel now that means that Britain will leave on October thirty one but still it just seems a fire that the only thing the British government is is doing at the moment and has been doing the lotteries is brexit. That's right. Actually it's an advertisement for what a wonderful thing that is not have government thing about the Belgium's about ten years ago and they didn't have government. That's right for about a year. I think we've we've we have passed laws in our country that I can remember. We've taken this different initiatives chiefs. We've just let people get on with this. Unemployment in Britain is about four and a half percent now. people frankly are unemployed in Britain. People whose health is cy battle junkies kids who just haven't called the brain power to get work. Everybody else go to job We've got very low inflation. We've got low interest rates. We're doing really well as a country economically and we are reasonably happy ship. It's really really brexit. It's appropriate. Maga Salmon Hefford the distinguished British columnist and historian. Let's turn to Boris Johnson. Someone you've known reasonably well over the last the best part of three decades in journalism now the Tory grassroots they love him. They voted for him to be their leader by warming the numbers you're leading conservative but you not like Boris Johnson. Why I Boris Johnson is a person. Who is you say I've known for years? A He is someone who has a very casual relationship with the truth he's known in the Labor Party. They put up tweets about him. Where they call Lavar Johnson I would get on Saturday but he certainly you finds the truth of difficult concept at times and I didn't think he's probity or the attention to detail all seriousness to be prime minister and the fact that he came into this office immediately cle- employed Mister Cummings as strategist and appeared to hand over the whole policy to him to do as immediately followed the as I say the scorched earth strategy suggest that Cummings Cummings his opponents rather than seeking to persuade the more reasonable him he just says because you're opposed to me you are clearly a worthless human being and I'm going. We're going to talk like Steve Bannon in the United States signed playbook but he's got more power than Steve Bounded had so this is this is very when Johnson was mayor of London. He had eight pitchy matters because he was notoriously idle. I'd had the attention to detail so he had to other people Lynton crosby officer Lynton of course was a former liberal rule and conservative party strategists seen all these well. Linson ran Boris Johnson's leadership election campaign and Boris Johnson wanted silence and when he collected his check which is a large one compact himself on the back of having a very successful job I didn't they with a Linson is still a a guiding Boris. There's been a word that he is but I presume has a general election and Boris Johnson has been trying to call on become get a majority sufficient in parliament eleven to approve that decision. Linda will be back in Blighty helping to run the election cabinet the many conservative voters and members of the Tory party the longtime readers of the Daily Telegraph often cruelly called the Tory graph they would read you and they might ask you does your hostility towards awards Boris out. Why your support for Brexit. No I really the thing I want most in life at the moment as an Englishman is for my country to be independent of European Union again I am hostile to Boris Johnson because I think he's very good record as a politician he was really second rate mayor of London where he wasted almost money the money and he was a truly bad foreign secretary he was a really I mean his officials at the Foreign Office absolutely detested him and he couldn't be trusted with any serious foreign policy. Theresa may continue to deal with the European policy with the policy towards America. He was allowed to go just places like darkest Africa unimportant to the Far East and shake hands there so he's he's not a capable politician. He hasn't got a grasp of detail and he's not serious and his response if you ask him a question he can't answer is to tell a joke. That's not good enough. I can't but he's defenders say he can unite the Party and in fairness opinion polls do show support for the conservative surging from twenty percent on the horizon May to thirty five percent under Boris add to that this is a point that phrase and Nelson the editor of the spectator. Mike's at two that the twelve percent support for the Briggs potty and you've got basically half the nation backing either Boris or Nausea Farraj saw even if the polls were to be tomorrow's election results you'd end up more or less with a fifty the strong majority for the Conservatives many people would say that's the best conservative results since Margaret Thatcher's third election victory in ninety seven well. There's a crucial assumption in which is an assumption rather than the facts in Fraser Nelson has jumped the gun on this and that this depends on there being a coalition between the Brexit Party and the Conservative Party is no oh such coalition at this stage at this stage but Nigel Farrell said the other day when Johnson went to see a variety of the Irish prime minister that he would regard leaving the European European Union without the deals offended of statecraft the minute that far out her that he said he's not serious about leaving without a deal therefore we can't do a deal with him. Okay Okay but just as soon there is a deal between Boris and Nargile Farraj between the Conservatives and the Brexit party this doing pretty good position because more than four hundred parliamentary entry states voted late in two thousand sixteen correct which is a lot more levers. That's true you must forget that there is a tribal determination of Labor Party vote. It is to fight for Labor Party even if it doesn't properly stand for Brexit so although Farrell she's very good at persuading working class former Labor voters to join the Brexit bandwagon had wagon we call it assume that they will also it's quite the puzzle says show a massive resurgence and support for the Liberal Democrats who are any two points behind the Labour party who basically written off when Cameron majority in two Thousand Fifteen yes and in twenty seven. I think they only had about twelve. MP's seventeen they WANNA by-election and they've had defections actions to them and I would confidently predict the Liberal Democrats win a lot of seats remain a tourism probably third of ill Tory party remains will vote for awesome in large quantities a lot of right wing. Labor people will them and quantities and the other problem that Johnson has got is it. He's loses his seats in Scotland because he's alienated. The Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson who retired at the age of about thirty eight last week saying that she'd had enough well. How vulnerable is Boris. I mean he has a majority in the Commons and I think you've argued elsewhere that he's hauled on his own. Marginal seat Ish Shakira era is what a majority of five thousand outs bridge which is a very mixed seat demographically in the West of London too high immigrant population many of whom are working working class middle class and not necessarily natural Conservative Party supporters of the Labor Party already flooding activists since oxbridge to to canvas and to try to defeat him so he could struggle to hold his seat but I think more than that the some of the things that he's Don John have really aggrieved people who supported him the early prorogation people thought the Queen in an embarrassing position the he's called call six votes on things such as calling a general election twice and other questions. He's lost all six of them. I don't see necessarily he's certain either to win the election far from it or even to hold his own seed. Well I mean this is a moving story and we clearly are in uncharted waters a back. Is it possible that brexit might not even happen. I've got about obviously if it doesn't happen it will be because he is. GonNa ask for an extension on what is being granted in those seconds as I say he's finished. He's in Party will turn on him. They that's not what they put him in there to do. Also it means that we will talk Frenchman so if we stay in until the study FESTA January. There's got to be some rapid footwork to get a deal together with the probably will be no extension after that. If we get a general election at a new party come in a policy of government then they might well call a second referendum the Labor Party at talking about doing that but the Labor Party is as divided if not more divided than the Conservative Party so we concentrate towards the party of government is a moment but Corbyn's is Labor Party isn't a real mess and they're far from shore to call the second referendum so we woke feticide the most lineup parliamentarians are reminders but a pretty significant segment

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