Mitigation vs. Supression



The chief medical officer has been talking about whether or not we should be having a countrywide shut down for a couple of weeks but he saying that that's not effective. What should we be doing? Do we just accept that. This is a life now. Well yes maybe we should jump and faint into normally we leave our research section till the end but in fact it's relevant to Oughta the chief. Medical Officer was talking about talk about it. Yeah so this is a study out of Imperial College. London mathematical mathematical model. Just remember. It's just a mathematical model. This controversy in Britain about so-called Mitigation Strategy and getting Herod Immunity and this study probably changed British policy and what it does model various degrees of social distancing and other policies on the effect on the epidemic and the particular looking at deaths and the impact on care units and in brief. What they show is if you if you let it rip if you let this epidemic rip the in the British context you'll get half a million lives lost and in the American context two point two million lines. A lot of people will die the upside if you can call it an upside. Is that the epidemic. We've actually much shorter. It would burn itself out because so many people would be infected about eighty percent of people being fainted. Soviet disaster terrible hospitals overwhelmed. Many many people dying. So nobody's going to do that. So what about mitigation and he will be missed. This has been misrepresented savings either or mitigation. Or what they call suppression getting it down to very low levels. Which is what the Chinese have tried to do. And what they've shown in this. Study to be brief. Mitigation is like the left hand side of the bar. Where you you're only doing one or two things to actually do social distancing and quarantining and so on and then there's the full monty on the right hand side where you're doing four or five different things and what they showed was that you've actually got to do a lot of things if you really want to suppress the virus spread to very low levels. You've got to do a lot You've got to do quarantine you've got to do social distancing and indeed. They say you've got clutch schools and universities and the reason they say that is that from some of the data. They got from some countries. Young people do get infected even though they don't get very seek and the beginning fainted at a slightly lower rate than other people but they do spread. Young people are spreaders and we spoke to this yesterday or the day before the spread it probably at about half the rate of everybody else but they still spread it and therefore to really get control. You go to close schools and universities. The how long are we? He like if it takes eighteen months for a vaccine to be ready. Are we talking about doing this for eighteen months? That's the scary part of this paper. Is they're saying well maybe you do. And so some governments are balking this Singapore for example where they haven't shot the schools and they're trying a lure key process but they've got very aggressive contact tracing very aggressive communication with the community. People get what's that misses a couple of times a day. Taiwan is similar so there are different strategies in different countries and New York. What New York's doing is they're doing two major lockdown but the problem with New York and other states in the United States is that they're stars. Luke morning Italy because they haven't had testing it's been spreading under under the radar and it's going to be bad and therefore they're locking down right now country like Australia where we've only got relatively few cases we've got probably a little bit of time but not very much time just to see how it's going so what they're doing is they're putting the food lightly on the break but it is very very lightly and so they're saying you're going to limit visitors to aged care about saving lives needs care. It's not about reducing the spread of the virus. We're going to limit gatherings to one hundred indoors. Five hundred outdoors. Those are arbitrary figures and fairly meaningless. A lot of people are already changing their behavior and not going out. Much the sting at home not going to work. A lot of the population are already doing far more than that. And they're talking about much more stringent rules on travel and travel will make a difference. Because you won't get importation of cases anymore at least into Australia. So we're doing a bit of the right thing and we were on more of the left hand side of the graph in terms of Mitigation Robin Suppression. But the problem is once you put your foot on the brake. You have no idea when you can take it off and might be as long as eighteen months and what the Imperial College people say. Well what you might do as pulse it. You might just off the break a little bit. See and see how fast you speed up. And then if it doesn't work you put back on the break and in Australia. What people would what they'll do. I hope they'll do. Is that the watch. The graph because moment is going almost vertical in New South Wales going really fast in Victoria as well from low numbers. But we've probably got three or four days just to see how it's going. And maybe the strategies individuals are doing going out and so on and these other strategies about large groups. Make a difference. I suspect not and I suspect they're going to be pushed into closing schools very difficult decision with a lot of impact but at the moment. They're not doing that in the winter. See what's happened. But they haven't got a Lotta time to waste. How long are we looking at dealing with this four until a vaccine comes along really Unless it's really really strongly seasonal and it just disappears in the northern summer and in the southern hemisphere disappears as we get into our summer oh towards December. Unless we're lucky with that it'll be with us until we get a vaccine but it will come back because they've been very few infections in the world which have disappeared completely so this is going to come back and we will need a vaccine but the worst case scenario is twelve to eighteen months until we get advancing really whatever way you cut it in for the long haul. We are in for the long haul questions. How severe is and how long we will put up with it because this major change to the way we live for a long period of time so if living things upside down today on Corona's we usually start with your questions. So let's get to them now if you want to send in a question go to ABC dot net dot EU slash corona virus. One of the questions. I'm seeing hates. Norman is whether or not you can get it twice a you immune once you've had five in nineteen. It's still an open question. I suspect what's going to happen with this. Is that is a problem of testing where you get your people know if you've had the flu for example and you know it seems to come back after a week or two is teasha while to shake it off and so that doesn't mean you've been reinfected immune to the virus hasn't gone it's waxing and waning and. I think it's a problem of tasting. We don't have a blood test that really rely tells you what's going on and it's a swab and maybe the the the the we're getting a false negative on the swab and then you get a positive. It doesn't mean you've been reinfected just means the test has been wonky. It's possible it'd be very disturbing if you get reinfection because it means immunity doesn't last a long time but I think the smart money is the immunity is probably going to be at least twelve to eighteen months from this virus. But that's still an open question. What sharing food and food safety is it possible? I guess the first question is. Can you catch it from food? And if so what should we be doing to keep ourselves safe around what we're eating? It's not proven that it can be caused from fruit as far as I'm aware. But what is proven and we spoke before is that in more than one study known children and adults. They have shown that the they can grow the virus and they can pick it up from Pu which means that your guests are into Stein on track is infected. And that means that they've ingested the virus and nobody knows the extent to which you catch it from food or the just swallowed a some as you picked up a droplet you've not only inhaled it. You've swallowed it. These are open questions and it just means that when you go to the bathroom you just to be super careful with soap and water. Wash it for wash hands for a long time. Be Very careful when you're appearing food particularly salads and raw food. I'm not saying you that you could eat healthily. Still the salad still eat raw food but just going to be super careful and of course well foods is a good idea. So we've heard hates about handwashing not doubt that that's really important. What about other things that touch our head and face our our head or you pillow that you lie on not should we be? Washing is more frequently than we would. Otherwise you're sharing a pillow with if it's just you and your partner and you you and your partner the you you you'd be no contact with any other people and you haven't come back from one of you has come back from overseas. Then what's on the pillowcase is? What's on the pillowcase? You're not going to get infected self infect yourself so that's fine I think that Casual sex is a problem. Because you don't know what you're going to catch on that's you. That's very intimate sharing of droplets. So I think that if you know your environment and you know who you live with then you don't need to worry about you. Pillows and sheets new

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