Why 2021 will be an even bigger year for coronavirus



And if you were in lockdown or isolation anywhere that it was as good as it could have been. We've had a long chat. Haven't taken about win. How long are we should go and think we're going to make this. The last corona cast till the eighteenth of january. Unless something big happens which case will come back on here. It's almost predictive is not. Can we say we're going to go off or something big happens. Let's hope it's it doesn't but before we go we want to hammer home. Important things to keep in mind over the next couple of weeks before we do. Let's just take a quick look at how sydney win over the christmas weekend out. So sydney state in single digits which is great little very large numbers of tests real huge numbers of tests. Which gives you some confidence that the numbers are real. It has still seated across sydney. And you've got little clusters which create causes for concern but that's not translating into large numbers of new cases still haven't tried down where patient zero came from the probably never will but it is somebody. Certainly that came back from the united states in some shape or form. It's almost receding into importance as terms of what's happening now. The contact tracing is increasingly showing earlier and earlier infections Which is getting towards the origin of but they may never get quite there but that's important in terms of finding out where clusters may have been or merging that we don't expect it still some question marks there but a lot of the people who are testing positive people who are already in quarantine in isolation we kind of feeling like it. It's not yet. But has new south wales more or less nile. The sydney outbreak have christmas and christmas under reasonably relaxed circumstances. You did have a massive gathering on eastern suburbs breach at bronte. Beach will only see the results of that in five to ten days time. But it's looking okay is still perplexes. Me that the premier of new south wales and the health minister are digging in refusing to mandate masks when that would give them an extra degree of security. I mean you had people the other day swarming. All over on boxing day swarming over the shops. There were some mask wearing but not as much as you'd hope and it would just be such a small thing to go to mandatory masks. You sort of need it to be a rule so that people follow it so that you get that mess coverage that you need for it to be effective. The other thing that i thought was interesting that they mentioned in the press conference yesterday was that some of the people who had testing positive had tested positive on ten or eleven of the isolation actually quite light in the isolation and that just goes to the varying incubation periods of this virus five days is average but it can go eight ten fourteen sometimes even longer than fourteen very. It's very small percentage of the golden fourteen. And then as we've said many times a corona cast your false negative rate right at the beginning of the infection is really quite high. Could it be could be anything up to eighty percent but then goes down to a low roundabout eight days and what you're seeing here is the false negative rate getting done pretty low as the infection proceeds in some people and it's just prudent to watch to see whether or not people are still negative as they come out of that chelation period. We've actually got a question from someone who is in quarantine or was at least when they wrote this letter to us. Lazy saying You norman and also the primary of new south. Wales urge people to celebrate christmas outside. But what about the quarantine is who have no fresh air for fourteen days and are relying on many hotel ventilation. Is it safe for them. Depends on the movie hotel. The ventilation has been a problem in some of them. And i think in some hotels they've try to fix up the ventilation so that is as it can be. But there's no guarantee in this the problem is if you're in quarantine and you're taking outside. That creates risk as they showed in victoria. So unfortunately you do have to remain confined to the room tough though that may be and question from phillip corinthian as well phillips making the comment that you say politicians talking about noncompliant behavior as being disappointing or surprising but He sort of going well. Why don't you just put them in jail. Where the regulations that there to make people comply with With regulations the problem here is coercion does not always work. They find that out in victoria. We mentioned this before wherever they please surrendered a supermarket. They arrested a woman. If you remember rightly And then they realize that you just alienate the community by too much coercion. You've got to bring the community along with you. That's what's happened in the northern beaches. It's not perfect. Didn't happen in suburbs of sydney over the christmas period. But you really just go to try and bring people with you and for really agree. Jesus offenders then you might have to find them or do something stronger.

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