Panasonic Talks Energy Density

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Are at with that out of. Of the way, let's get sort of the main news here, and this is on Panasonic batteries. This is per a Reuters report, they spoke with Panasonic's of US v Batteries and they report quote Panasonic corporate plans to boost the energy density of twenty. One, seventy battery cells supplies to test link by twenty percent in five years and commercialize a cobalt free version in two to three years. The head of its US battery business said and quote they also report that Panasonic has already cut the content. Content to less than five percent of Nikko Cobalt, Aluminum Cathode, which by the way I have to apologize about because the other day in an episode, I, was saying nickel manganese cobalt. So embarrassing, but anyway, Rogers also says that Panasonic already with the twenty one, seventy cells has improved energy density by more than five percent, and while they declined to link the further twenty percent increase to Tesla's future vehicles, they did say that in September, they will start converting lions at gigafactory Nevada quote as. As a prepares to further boost the energy density of the cells Takemoto set and quote. So overall I think pretty exciting information here though a bit limited in terms of what we actually can learn from it. We don't know if the energy density here for his two volume metric or gravel metric, and we also don't really know if that increase in energy density will coincide with a reduction in cost as well. Though presumably, it would because if you make more energy dense battery cells you need. Need fewer battery cells to actually power the thing that you were trying to power with those batteries. So I think presumably cost beneficial as well, and unlikely that Panasonic would be pushing for something if there was not eventually going to be a cost benefit from it or at least be affordable enough to have a viable use case at scale I think it's also exciting that they have a cobalt free version in the works for two to three years from now, but the twenty percent energy density. Density improvement is a five year goal. So presumably, that twenty percent increase would be after extracting out all the cobalt from the process thinking about that twenty percent increase in energy density though over five years from compound annual growth rate perspective, that's three point, seven percent per year, which I think does sound about right looking at the historical progress. If we look at the Model S. from two, thousand, twelve to two, thousand, twenty, the range on the Model S. increased from two, hundred, sixty, five miles. Miles EPA all the way up to four hundred and two miles. So that's a five point, three percent compound annual growth rate in the available range. But of course, not all of that is attributable to the energy density of the battery cell. There's a lot of efficiencies within the powertrain and even things like wheels and tires that are contributing to that rate. So the improvement in energy density is likely below that though again, really it's improvement in energy density per cost. That is most important. Important looking forward, if that twenty percent improvement was applied to the range on the model three today and the Monterey today that would put the model three range at about three, hundred, eighty, six miles up from three, hundred, twenty, two miles if it were just a straight twenty percent increase and then similarly for the Mata, why it would go from three, hundred, sixty, miles, two, hundred and seventy nine. But again, that's just the increase from the battery cells that assumes no other progress throughout the rest. Rest of the powertrain or the battery pack or innovations that allow for reduction in weight of the vehicle, things like that. That will also, of course, happen over time. The other option that energy density improvements allow for is obviously to put the same amount of energy in less space or with less weight, which would improve the vehicle's efficiency. So even with the same energy, call it seventy, five kilowatt hours, the vehicle would travel farther because of that increased energy density and may be the range. Range go up to three, thirty or three forty with the same energy capacity. The overall point here is that better improvements are going to keep happening. Those improvements are going to open up a lot of different options for electric vehicle makers and Tesla's best positioned to capitalize on the Trent.

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