Six months in, how are you doing?
In thirty five seconds how we doing because when this thing started, we were talking depression and end of the world. Right so we we've seen the depression part I don't think we'll see the end of the will be. That's the good news. We but we definitely have seen an economic decline that's been at surreal levels. Just think two weeks of a march shutdown with enough to drive a first quarter. GDP. Down five percent on an annualized basis, and now, and then after that, in the second quarter, we saw thirty three percent annualized decline. So it's been truly remarkable in terms of the economic recovery though though the magnitude is severe and still. Severe? It's likely to be one of the shortest economic recessions on record for starting to see the momentum and quick bound said everyone talked about. But from here, it's still vulnerable and the path back to pre pandemic levels is likely to be a long one. Okay. So deep let's talk about the from here part and I point you to Capitol Hill this week and the Senate not able to pass. Its version of another relief package. Why Why question we always ask about Congress. We. We all know that the United States Congress tends to respond to fast moving urgent disasters the ones that are politically salient. The ones that create a create a the momentum they need unfortunately corona viruses becoming a slower moving urgent disaster still disastrous still awful. But it's not necessarily shocking people at the same pace that it did six months ago. That is I think. The big difference that we've become too almost accustomed to the apocalyptic world that we're living in. That's just it's just a weird sense who cares about the deficit at this moment but there are people who do and at least people who care about it from from an timeframe or from whatever form of of of of religious view they have on debt. So, there's always a chance that something could happen in the next few weeks. We don't want to write off Congress completely of course, remembered twelve years ago. There was a giant bail out of the biggest banks that asked Congress just over a month before an election, but it was right after it failed in Congress and took a giant tumble in the stock market to make to to show. Some activities something that looked real for lawmakers to respond to. We just haven't seen anything sudden and real to get people to respond and let me ask you about that slow moving part of this thing because I kind of agree with deep, it happened so fast and now it's become a long drawn out thing. The question is, can people can this economy wait until Congress gets shocked into action? There is a significant segment of the economy that can't wait. Those are the people who seen their unemployment insurance benefits expire at the end of July. Those are the people who may be facing addiction. In early twenty, twenty one if something isn't done to to stay continue to stay the evictions Those are the people who are. PART OF THE OVER A. Fourteen million Americans who've been affected by COVID job losses and you may still be employed but not getting paid. So there are several people who will be affected by a con Congress in a stalemate. What's not seemingly affected the stock market which continues to advance even if you get tripped up here and there and over a course of a couple of weeks, a socks and home prices continue to climb higher. So the impact has been a different. For different segments of the economy will do the stock market is clearly what's giving Congress the covered to not actually move right? I mean that's that's not much of a debate but let me get back to what you said a little while earlier, which is, let's keep an eye on the next few weeks. The you actually believe there's going to be relief action in this. Congress, before the election and if not how it not become a political problem. It it it. I think it's possible that we will get some some type of action just never know like all of these things come out of nowhere like we we would have expected that there would have been. More urgency a month ago or six weeks ago and that that there isn't a think as perhaps the most shocking political story of the moment that that they're not feeling it I do think some lawmakers are are aware of the risk. It had their democratic lawmakers who are screaming at Nancy Pelosi right now saying please pass something We're we're in tight races, but they're also Republican lawmakers who. Carrying on a narrative that the thing that gets out of this is grit and determination, it's not more money. It's it's it's like wrapping yourself in a flag. Maybe, not even with a mask. And and just just trying to like get just get through it and there's this idea that like that's the American spirit and that's the there. These really contrary views of what what the country needs right now that have been. And been become obviously polarizing but become ingrained in our in our minds collect way the nation. Quick. Just a rip off of that a little bit. You know Congress has been remarkable and its ability to pull a rabbit out of the hat in the last minute and what can't be denied. It's the political calculus going into whether or not to do this next round twenty Republican Senate. Seats are also up for election in November and so they have to be doing that calculus what happens to their? Their states, it's no more stimulus as passed. That's going to be part of the negotiations over the next few weeks as well.