Gottlieb says U.S. likely 'a long way' from herd immunity to virus


That you're going to have a period of immunity that collapsed anywhere from 6 to 12 months. It's going to be highly variable. Some people will have less immunity. Some people have slightly more, but it's good news that they're able to document that people have really sterile immunity. They're not going to get reinfected. For at least three months, probably longer than that, after infection. Interesting. Scott Gottlieb there, the oft quoted Dr used to run the FDA. I hope that's true. I think a lot of us were hoping you get lifetime immunity. But I guess we'll take 6 to 12 months because at some point there's a tipping point in the virus just can't spread because there aren't enough ready hosts and then it just kind of You know, Withers away and goes away. Let's go ahead and follow up with a 45 Probably a long way from herd immunity. If you look at the Serra prevalence studies overall, maybe 8% of the population as a whole has been exposed to an outbreak. States like Arizona might be higher closer to 25% based on some modelling, maybe as high as 20% in Florida based on certain modeling. And 15% in Texas. We know this Sarah prevalence in New York City's 20% so that's getting closer to a level of immunity, The rate of transmission will start to decline. It's not quite herd immunity. But you're going to see declines in the rate of transmission because of that, that level of infection that also goes a long way to explaining how New York or parts of California or wherever it I mean, I could cite a dozen examples. They're doing great because X Then they have this huge surge in cases and hospitalizations and deaths and all. Then it gets better And then the media says, Well, they're doing better because of acts. But once you get to and we had a a scientist send us is several weeks ago. But he said Herd immunity is great. But once you pass a tipping point, I think, he said it's somewhere in the low twenty's percent. The virus. Just it runs into too many dead ends and it starts to go away. And so I just think various parts of the country we're getting to that tipping point. And there's so much that's still not known about this damn thing so

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