Vaccines and the Future of COVID with Epidemiologist Dr. George Rutherford

Automatic TRANSCRIPT

This isn't the same rehashed discussion of covert. This is. Well more worth listening to. This is stuff that you need to know. This is medicine we're still practicing. I'm building. Of course, I by friend and Co host zooming in Dr Steven. Tailback he's a quadruple board certified doctor of Internal Medicine Pulmonary Disease Critical Care and neuro critical care, and he continues to fight on the front lines of the covert battle here in California for which we are eternally grateful. Steve. How you doing? Hey Bill. Good to see you. And R various special guest Dr, George Rutherford. He is the internationally lauded head of infectious disease and global epidemiology at the UCSF School of Medicine. He is also UCSF's professor of pediatrics and adjunct. Professor School of Public Health at California Berkeley. I had a chance to print out Georgia's see. It's one hundred, twenty, six pages long with two hundred and twenty one published papers and so many important accolades. So I'm going to read the whole thing to you now. Only. Kidding. Dr Authored although socially distance. Thanks so much for joining real pleasure. So Professor of epidemiology and biostatistics director at the prevention and Public Health Group. What do you do? Well, I'm an academic. So I teach school right I do research and I provide advice. So the mission of anybody in Academic Vinnie academic medical entity is education research, clinical care and public service. So my clinical care is really the clinical practice of public. Health and I advise the City Health Department San Francisco Department of Public Health, the California Department of Health and some of the various health departments around the state on approaches to controlling the Kobe deputy hammock. You did mention that your research is partly funded by CDC. Yes. That's correct. Yeah. Hell is a bit about that and how that affects your work during these crazy days. So I've worked with CDC for decades and most recently. I've been doing predominantly HIV related work in developing countries as part of the Presidential Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief I, have a large competent, very competent research group that basically tries to help governments and occasionally universities but mostly governments CDC missions in developing countries to understand what's going on with their. HIV. Epidemics, how things are working to evaluate progress and to discover new ways to try and stop the spread of HIV and try and. Improve. Clinical outcomes of people who already have HIV. So cases per one million population worldwide is running at about three thousand, five, hundred cases per one million in the US is running at about nineteen thousand, three hundred. So did we screw up or do we have a population that's more difficult to manage? Yes and yes, we have six fold higher numbers of cases than we should have and other countries like India may eventually catch up. I think that the US mister major opportunity early on and that was the problem with not having up tests and having the wrong tests and having tested didn't work and trying to control tests and trying to restrict out tests were being used for whom they are being used. I think they've always been you know a whole myriad lack of policy leadership which the states. have taken over and I think first of all the bay area in which the six county health departments acted in concert to move to a shelter in place ordinance early on on March. Sixteenth, and there is a very good reason for March sixteenth it was the day before Saint Patrick's Day, and then later the state moved in the same direction. So I think California's really been a leader in this. Now, you wouldn't know it from the last two months or three months since mid June under there's a huge wave of new infection a disappointed but I think we still are leaders in this. We showed data today in medicine grand rounds at UCSF that looked at numbers of deaths per hundred cases and in New York ten percent in. San. Francisco, it's zero point, seven percent. So it's less than one percent in San Francisco and the next best in a big city is something I one and a half percent did we screw up as a country? Totally? Did we screw up regionally in the north in northern California I don't think. So we scrub stay somewhat I think we made the reopening little to easy S. Really Hindsight Wealth speak that hindsight just for a second I mean in New York they've had four hundred, forty, five, thousand cases in thirty, three, thousand deaths. So they got a hold of this thing long before we did but we've already exceeded the case we're up to seven, hundred, fifty, thousand cases almost eighty percent more than they've had, and we've had fourteen thousand deaths. Half of what they've had when you say that we as a country may have screwed up, do we have a hold of this thing now and how much of it is that the population is not wearing masks enough especially young people who've decided that they're not as susceptible what New York was bad luck and they had continuous importation from Europe and may have had who? knows. Thousands of cases imported from Europe each one of which starts a new chain of transmission. We in San Francisco we probably at tens coming from Asia and you know the first death care was on February six dot and that was diagnosed retrospectively. Womanhood attended a convention in Las Vegas choose living in Santa, Clara County near San Jose and that convention probably people from China. or at least in the in the hotel that's probably where she got it. If she'd come home and hit a large crowd event at the wrong time with very high levels of virus inter nose and throat and spread it around we could have been just as bad office New York but we weren't and that's really a question of luck. So New York at Bath Block. But guess what we do. This was coming since the thirty first of December. That's when the UBA provincial CDC notified the central Chinese CDC that Oh, by the way, we may have a little problem here the central Chinese CD setup team to Wuhan on December thirty first basically started began an immediate investigation started closed down and drain the whole thing under control. That was the starting Bell I. Mean there was basically two months lost now CDC will say, well, we were having we we developed tests. We did this. We did that. Yeah, that's true. But then the FDA threatened to decertify their laboratory that was producing testing. They produce tests in the hundreds, not in the tens of thousands which was what was needed thousands. Of people came from Europe to New York and it got spread around helped by a couple of super spreader events where people in fact, at one person they affect hundreds of people at the same

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