Listen: One Month After Australia's Un-Losable Election: Dissecting What Happened
"It's been a month since the federal election and the live apart. And the commentaries they remained in a state of disbelief and despair. This was, we will told the unlivable election. So just how did the pundits get my so badly? Roan is it fair to just blind? The polls will the coalition scare campaign as if scape campaigns never happened in politics. What do you think was this election reminder that many commentators, especially in the camera? Chris gallery. They really do. Leave in a bubble. Well, one veteran columnist consistently believed that the coalition had a pathway to victory and he's my guest today. Jared Henderson, now you've no doubt seen him as a regular guest on the inside, as you can read these call them every Saturday in the Weekend Australian, and he publishes a Wally read blog called media watch dog. Now, jeff. Rod is one of the leading historians of the liberal party. He's books include Menzies child, liberal party of Australia and Santa Maria. A most unusual man as published by immu p the Papp's Jared's. Mine work is executive director of the Sydney institute. Jared, it's great to have you on between the lines. Thanks for the invitation to them. Now, what are the punditry get the election so badly? Wrong, what I think you've got to look at brief contemporary history here. We know that the polls go to wrong with Trump's victory. The polls got it wrong with bricks and the penetration Australia should have been aware that Paul's aunt, who is reliable. But in a in a sense, I think must of the commentators in most of the journalist wanted the coalition defeated, and there was a sort of projection onto the electric of their own views. They didn't believe that the coalition was worthy of government. They didn't believe modem timbale should have been overthrown. They wanted the. Coalition replaced, and I think they projected onto the electric debuts day held without checking out what the views the electric hill, and I think biolog-, many of them are out of touch some common title is on the lift such as professor Judith Brit, from Latrobe university shoot. She took to the cover story in the monthly magazine leading up to the my I election. And she said that this was the headline laced self interest groups, the liberal party has little lift, but appeals to the hypocrisy on her lawn was that the liberals must be hoping that enough of it supporters. These are woods hours, morally bankrupt as it has become happy to try the planets, and they children's future for pocketful of Silva. Judas breath is very often wrong on these matters. It's twenty five years ago. She predicted the end of the liberal party that didn't work out too well, and then I saw her piece in the monthly, but it's rather superficial. Peace and innocent Sasol fractious pace because what she's saying is that Australian shouldn't be primarily consumer their economic interests. Now, I always sought before the campaign during the campaign that essentially Australians would those on their economic interest, because that was the only thing that can really determine about others thought that they should vote on perceptions of climate change who perceptions about the liberal party. But that's not how have worked in the past and, and make sense. If, if you'll someone on on modest to listen, modest means you're gonna look look after self. And, and I think it's wise that you do that. It's not simply self. It's also you family. I think there was a tendency of many of the commentariat heated look down on other astray ins they thought privately I thought they wouldn't express it they thought they went as. Well educated today with I wanted us in a sense that as morals with wanting, the real big issues. I mean in, in a meeting, I did very few discussions before the vixen vetted, one, one business Madiun, David Maron, Jennifer Hewett, and David Meyer. Showed me, the whole election was going to be decided on climate change and suggested David that he might drive out to the suburbs. So into some of the regional towns to find out what people really talking about about. He didn't do this and I didn't finish to the MAs of the will that they, they are get out clause now is that, well that would just following the polls and the polls consistently said that the coalition would not win the election and raises the question. And we saw the same phenomenon happen both with Brexit and Trump. And we've talked about the shy Trump factor that people feed and meeting, I'd vote for the Republican nomination, because he was socially unacceptable during the twenty sixteen Brexit referendum Paul's pointed to remind. Find victory millions of. Scheib residencies unite crypt into the Pauling booze. I voted leave you'll saying the same phenomenon heath. Well, we are saying the same here, but there's another factor. It's wrong to blame the Pels in in this insulin, usually, the Pels arrived, this time, the weren't right? But in any event, the magin was fifty one and a half to forty eight and a half. And that's still within the magic mirror. So very unwise for any journalist to say, well, look, the coalition's behind by that, much, of course, look at ninety ninety three when Paul Keating won a come from behind election victory Johnson. That was a classic wasn't it. Well, it was in 'cause pull ditties victory speech out in the western suburbs. And he come into the second eleven of journalists being sent. All the I live in was hanging around waiting for Joan his victory speech, which he, which he never delivered. So in a column, I did the Australian before in the period of the election said, Labour's, he went from a position on three occasions, not seventy two with Gulf with him. He was not a popular figure, but a huge figure then with Bob Hawke, who was both very popular figure, and a huge figure. And with Kevin rod who wasn't a huge figure, but a very popular figure. Now, when you look at it that way, Bill, shorten wasn't at that level. And then there was this fixation among sections of the press. Go raise it, the review among sections, the prescription some other commentators, that's okay for the liberal party to have a later who might win provided his name, Malcolm Turnbull, preps. Julie bishop. They didn't believe that the term should have been replaced, and therefore, they didn't believe that Morrison could win because they predicted they've you of turn belong to the electorate. But the electric didn't have that view of timber all guest is Jared Hinson is a columnist with the. Australia now on election, not the vanquish Tony Abbott. He talked about a political realignment in this country. Let's heave from the former prime minister. There is something of a rail lineman poets going on rolling around this country. It's clear that in what might be described as working seats. We are doing so much better. It's also clear in, at least some of what described as wealthy Sates way undoing it tough. And the Green Left is doing better. They will be gripe deal of analysis of the pot that climate China deal did not ply in the ring outcome. And let me just say these says, my first word if not necessarily my last word on this subject. Climate change is"