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"Fair Chrysler, automobiles, has unveiled a proposed thirty point six billion euro, al-sham measure with Renault that would we shape, the global automative industry, David Atlee discusses, how the jail came about and how it will affect Renos prepares tired with Nissan with Irish masugi and Peter Campbell. Rush tennis about the two men who engineered the deal when did the talk start. And how did the deal come together? Okay. If tickets step back and just imagine that in the last three or four years in the car industry, all the major players were talking to each other. Part of this thesis, was driven by the former CEO, the late CEO of Fiat Chrysler automobiles Sergio Marconi passed away last July, but had written this manifesto called confessions of capital junkie, where he called for consolidation for a number of reasons in the car industry, and he was, in many ways, the chief, confidant of John Elkin who runs the nearly family empire through an investment vehicle called Exor, which is the dominant shareholder and Fiat Chrysler. And so with Mark Janas death Elkin really steps into this role that normally would have been played by any number of special executives brought in by the family over the years to help exercise their interests. But Elkin really stepped into this role and then began taking charge and making a series of moves one. Those moves was to begin conversations with Renault about various things those conversations really took off, when John Dominic scenarist was brought in January to become the Renault chairman, and stabilize the company, which had been going through tumultuous period after the arrest of Carlos gone in Tokyo in November, the meetings between scenario and Alcon took place throughout the spring in Paris, and Turin at their various homes, and then in the last few weeks, what began as talks about cooperation in a broader partnership really shifted into something else, which was a full merger did call us gone have any role in trying to put together such a merger when he was headed. It's run into San Peter and the rest of the team who's been covering the gun fall out reported in March that Nissan had looked at FCA in the past three years in something that was pushed by Goan. It's not clear to what extent he actually wanted to do that. But at the time he was very much more focused on. Combining rhino with Nissan when it became clear that, that deal was not possible to scenario who had replaced gun, the conversations with Elkin really took off, and in centered Elkin found someone who is more mild mannered, who's more classically European traditional very smooth and diplomatic not an ego maniac, not a big character. Which is typically, what defines many of the big auto chief executives Goan would certainly be seen someone who was imperious character. And so in Senator, there was someone who is much easier to deal with. And I think that probably played a major role because Elkins manners is very sort of genteel in European if you want a risk Socratic, and so that dynamic probably helped make this happen. So you could actually save the absence of gone to some extent, maybe even absent Marconi made this deal easier to engineer. So where does that lead us what are the terms on? What will be the balance of power between each side, so it's a fifty fifty stock deal. So the shareholders in Chrysler wife. Fifty percent stake in a new company, which will be a Dutch registered company and Reynaud shareholders will have fifty percent that essentially means that everyone's shareholdings in the two existing companies will be cut in half. So extra will become the most dominant shareholder with about a fifteen percent stake, the French state, and Japan's Nissan which have fifteen percent of Renault. They will have seven and a half percent in the new company and there will be others who have smaller state, but that's largely the three dominant shareholders. That's why John Elkin will become the non executive chairman of the company and at least for the time being is believed that scenario will become the chief executive. But we'll see how that shakes out of the coming years theme what will is still mean for the industry, and can we expect further consolidation. Yeah. I think the message is yes, but the trick is, it's very hard. The industry is beset with big egos with national pride with unions with manufacturing jobs and the core. Thesis behind this is shutting down factories and firing people. So that is a really hard thing to. Swallow layer that in with the fact that you getting some kind of scale through consolidation layer that in with governments that will want to say to try to protect their jobs. And so you have a very difficult dynamic now concurrently to these talks with Reynaud Fiat was talking to pizzo of France. And obviously those talks have fallen apart hoettges looking stilted at the altar a bit. So the question is, what do they do next and Nissan, which at the moment, just looks like a basket case is also left with some questions to ponder upon for the future. But all the major car companies are watching this with great interest at the moment, so he can we then tune to what do we think. With the cost savings, be and will this mean job losses, the Irish alluded to? So the terms set out yesterday were quite clear in the deal. They envisage being able to do this merger without any plump closures now that may sound ambitious, but remember a few years ago, PSA, Persia took over opo and said they would have a turnaround program and integration program, evolve, no plunk closures and brutally. They haven't closed any plants, so. Oh, it's certainly possible to do that. FCA talked about possible cost savings of around five billion euros from combining various things such as purchasing an RND with Renna. But what they're most likely it's do is to avoid additional cost. One of the reasons comic is trying to tie up is because so many of them have such massive investment costs in future technology, think about something like electric vehicles, something like driverless, technology, and Sergia, Makia, knees, onset to or this was, it's much better for comic is to pool resources and spend this money together, rather than old, Joop locating their investment. And so what this does mean is that FCA and Reynaud, if they come together, we'll only have to spend one load of money on developing electric vehicles, rather than say, two now Renos already the European leader in electric vehicles as the biggest selling electric model in Europe and fit Kryza is generally regarded as a lag Auden electric technology and say, we'll hopefully be able to take in some of Renos electric technology. So they'll be looking for cost savings in various areas such as that. And how much will this merger weaken Nissen's bizarre? Mission within the alliance with Renault currently the way that the alliance is set up is that Reynaud Misawa each have equal representation on the alliance operating board says two seats for Japan. That's Nissim officially in two seats for froms. That's the Reynaud CEO and the Reynaud champion his John, Giannis Sonat, and what this will undoubtedly mean. We don't know what this will mean for the aligns board but is almost certainly going to mean that FCA has a seat at that table. It means that Nissan's influence in overall terms will decrease across the alliance, but actually, the view is that Nissan may perceive parts of this deal is incredibly positive for them, one of the conditions the FCC set during these talks with Renna was the any plans to merge renaissance should be shelved for the time being in order to let Nissen and to some extent, Renos wealth focus on they call business because Nissan's core businesses. Not in great shape seeing a huge slide in it sales in the US as saying fools in China. It's really struggling in some of its logo operations and a lot. Of the phone out of the Costco, no arrest and the questions over the future of the alliance and all the shenanigans about would they merge? Would they not merge has been distracting missiles, management, and frankly, Renos management, as well from the day-to-day operations of the business? So the hope is that by putting that issue to bed for the time being it will allow listen to focus on that day today or perations and not sexy is one thing that's been put in that to try and win over Nishantha supporting this deal in short, then that could be benefits finish San in this new alliance with key be so the long term, what if CA is open to doing is having a full on merger with miss sandwich would create by a very long way the world's largest car company with around fifteen million sales, and that would give them huge scale and therefore numerous potential to invest in a lot of the new future technology a much greater resilience in a very cyclical bumpy industry to be able to weather the storms now. That's more long term in the short term suddenly what Nissim would hope is that it just takes the potential of emerge Reynaud off the table. It lets them focus on the business. Which is something they need to do in order to be able to remain competitive in the future turning to another very important stakeholder in this how have investors responded? What has their view been safe, all say, if you look at the Shatt prices the shaft prices of FCA anniversary both rose incredibly strongly yesterday on Monday when the deal was announced, both rose more than ten percent, investors. See this broadly as positive, but there are lots of questions over the Deel. There were lots of questions over whether call makers need to have global scale, which this will give the companies or whether it's better to focus on getting scale instead of half an individual regions like someone like Persia has done with the OPEL deal because what this won't give Reynaud or FCA is much greater scale in any given regions. They have a bit of overlap in Europe, the market, share, at the end of this deal will be about sixteen percent in Europe. So it increases this state bat. But in terms of that Sharon other markets, there wasn't a great deal of overlap, so they won't be the biggest player in major global markets. They operate in. And so there's a. Question about whether they really need regional scale, or whether they need global scale, lots of other questions around merges, and particularly auto mergers that cross borders in general around company, coaches, we've seen a lot of mergers, in the past the famous one is diamond Chrysler go on for a few years, and then just collapsed because they don't work. That's almost never because of industrial issues political issues. It's almost always because of deeply ingrained, cultural issues, car companies are very cultural animals often rooted in the country, that, that headquartered in and say trying to put together a company that has not just a talion in US culture from fat Chrysler, but French culture from rhino, and ultimately, possibly Japanese culture from Nissen as quite a melting pot. If you're trying to put it all together, so there are two questions over this deal. You've mentioned some, but do you see any particular hurdles, is it the cultural is it the regulation is the politics that could prevent this top, the biggest one of the moment is whether Reynaud agrees to it. So while Reynolds, Chavan, John Donnie Senate has. Been in talks with Alcon for a long time over this and in recent weeks about the merger and FCA has put this proposal to Reynaud Renos still has to agree to it. The French state her fifteen percent of Reynaud behalf double voting rights. Still have to agree to it. Nissan, even though they don't have a blocking vote on this still need to agree. You have the Italian government saying that it wants to protect talion jobs. The French government won't to protect French jobs is going to be very political. We still don't know what the locations of this deal are for the specifics of Renos relationship with Nissen, particularly if it'll affect some of their past contracts together. And so there are a lot of things that could potentially derailed the deal. So it's not a slam dunk by any measure, but the language of FCA and the fact that they're leaders of work closely with Renos leaders over the last few weeks to nail this down. Does at least suggest that there is goodwill on both sides, and both of them it is in their interest to do this deal to make it work."
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