Listen: Iran, United States And Iraq discussed on Global Revolutions
"Specialist on around the middle east in the persian gulf he's a lecturer recent revolutions in the slavic world at the university of virginia's department of middle eastern and south asian languages and culture his around focused writings include articles published by the middle middle east institute the iranian review foreign affairs critique of the center for run in research and analysis and middle east insight he's also done multiple upends for the christian science monitor and the richmond times dispatch scott hair has worked both sides of the gulf he tells us over the years having his served with former u._s. excuse me with u._s. ambassador in the thin you'll how an interdisciplinary project investigating kuwait internal traumas in the wake of iraq's nineteen ninety one invasion he also was a research consultant to cutters former ambassador to the u._n. in u._s. in an inquiry into u._n. security council the u._n. security council in the iran iraq war Or Scott hair. Welcome to w not thanks very much. It's a pleasure to. let's let's start with your sister your take on the current situation and then perhaps work backwards as we proceed through the hour could you give our listeners a quick summary of where we're at your take on the march toward what some are seeing possibly as a full scale war the u._s. military buildup in the region and so on Sure, it's, it's a family worrisome moment. And the question is how did we get here for my respective? I'm not surprised. I'm horrified. I'm aware of where this could end up to me, it's a direct outgrowth of the current administration's decision to withdrawal from the joint agreement that was reached with the United States, the European powers, and with Iran over the nuclear issue, this cement, the, you know, lateral withdraw from that agreement has led to a series of consequences. The ratcheting up of pressures and threats on Iran hasn't had the desired salt, and we have a tinderbox relation. So let's talk. Let's start, of course with the recent attacks on the tankers in the Gulf of Oman. of course then followed up more recently by by the iran shooting down of a u._s. by drone go into that a little bit what what's your read starting with the tanker tax on the tankers on the one hand first of all listeners should be very much aware that tankers indeed are critical to the world's economy even though that may sound somewhat ironic to those who have followed the recent dramatic improvement in america's disposition towards world energy markets we now export more energy net net than we import so you might think well why do we even need to care about oil coming in from the gulf but on the other hand the straightest one news those very narrow straits between iran oman with neighboring united air emirates my own i late mentor really ramos ramazzotti decades ago i dub that the world's global choke point that this is this is a dangerous situation that i'm in and even though the united states doesn't necessarily need that oil if there would be a disruption in the ability of trees the littoral states of the persian gulf to export that oil that oil that loss of supply Fear that it could get even worse, major disruption in the world economy, those countries that, that dramatically depend upon that oil, such as China, Iran, India, and much of Europe would be on indicates that would affect the price of energy even here in the US. So that's the context. the the recent tanker attacks for me it has a has a bit of an echo because i i'm one of the few people that followed the oil tanker war back in the iran iraq war all the way back in nineteen eighty seven and eight for me there was a lot of echoes to that but the immediate context here is when i first heard about it i was thinking wow this is potentially explosive and it will be the temptation you know you have the sensational scenes of these huge tankers having holes in them or in one case now being on fire so the immediate reaction at least among those who pursue that iran must be responsible or iran is responsible for anything bad might happen in the region was you have to hit back with i write the get go was just about this and i was just hoping that calmer heads would prevail that that there's a lot of potential players here that might have done this the countries were quick to accuse and to believe that iran was behind it where the united air emerets the saudi arabia and israel and there was even suggestions that the israelis had provided intelligence to trump that his own administration didn't have even just within the past twenty four hours i was stunned to see that the emerets torn minister one of the countries that had been so quick to assume that the first tanker attacks about a month ago that iran had some help in responsible for it that we automatically knew that even he yesterday in russia again this is the foreign minister of the united arab emirates is declaring to the world saying well we're not sure who did this that was a stunning river so and i haven't seen that commented upon in any of the major american yeah let's just yet And, and of course it's followed up by wanna go. We'll come back to a deeper discussion of the, the this, you know, the tanker attacks, but, but it's followed up, of course, Iran shoe dispatced week shooting them, this spied room. And of course, there's the back and forth about whether it was over international waters, and so on. in that of course suggested you know initially that there was going to be a reprisal from the trump administration a military ron l- and then they backed off so you know you remind me of course in some of our notes back and forth in preparation program that this isn't the first time that iran has taken down a drone and they actually forced the grounding of some some some while back which gave the most sorts of technological information about the drone system at cetera but talk about that a little bit the the reversal of trump yeah well first of all in this case there was no doubt that iran had shot down the drone but the question was now is this what the iranian said that it was over their water or was it as the united states claimed that it was over international waters and from the first i heard that i was thinking has anybody looked at the match of how close things are first of all the strata for moves that global checkpoint that i referred to is an extremely narrow body of water and from what i've been seeing the flight pass from both sides is that if that drone was following that straight of remove than when it's actually over the narrow part of the strait of hormones there is no international waters niclely and you get into wild debates about that but it's extremely shall we say fraught but then when you get out over the gulf of mine where the subsequent clarifications were then yeah then you get into some international waters but again there was this question exactly what the cia down and again my mind is flashing back to what happened in nineteen eighty eight when the united states shot down that hapless iranian airliner on air flight six five five which to iran ins of all stripes they still remember that it's one of the most horrific moments in recent memory and"