A highlight from 1379: Bitcoin Will Reach $400,000 Next Halving Epoch
In today's show, we're going to be discussing Bitcoin analysts eyeing a V -shape Bitcoin price bounce as the RSI hits a five -year low. I'm also going to be sharing with you a new Bitcoin bull cycle metric, which bought them before 70 % gains. We'll also be discussing mysterious Bitcoin wallet becomes the third largest Bitcoin hodler in under three months, now at over $3 billion. We'll also be discussing the trader who nailed the 2018 Bitcoin price floor predicts the bear market bottom for crypto. I'll be breaking down his outlook. We'll also be discussing Guggenheim predicts a $400 ,000 Bitcoin price prediction, as well as Blockware. They share that the Bitcoin price can reach $400 ,000 during the next halving epoch. I'll be breaking this down for you. We'll also be taking a look at the overall crypto market, all this plus so much more in today's show. Yo, what's good, crypto fam? This is first and foremost, a video show. So if you want the full premium experience with video, visit my YouTube channel at Cryptonewsalerts .net. Again, that's Cryptonewsalerts .net. Welcome, everyone. Just joining us. This is podcast episode number thirteen hundred and seventy nine. I'm your host, JV. And today is August twenty second, twenty twenty three. And naturally, we have lots to cover. Unfortunately, the market is continuing on its downward spiral. We just broke that twenty six K resistance, as you can see here. And our market watch, we've got Bitcoin currently hovering just above twenty five thousand eight hundred dollars. We have Ether barely holding on to sixteen hundred. So the million dollar question becomes, how low will she go? And checking out CoinMarketCap .com, the crypto market cap barely holding on to that trillion dollar milestone, with about twenty eight billion in volume. In the past twenty four hours, we have the Bitcoin dominance at forty eight point four percent and the Ether dominance at eighteen point nine percent. And checking out the top one hundred crypto gainers for the past week, virtually nothing, and maybe just a handful, just a sea of losses, very unfortunate for the entire crypto market and checking out the crypto greed and fear index. Of course, we're still in fear today, rated to seventy eight. Last week was a fifty three neutral and last month a fifty four neutral as well. So there you have it. I mean, I've been taking advantage of this recent dip. I mean, sub twenty six thousand dollar Bitcoin seems like a bargain. If you're to ask me, let me know in that live chat. And now let's break down today's Bitcoin technical analysis and check out the charts and what is happening right now in the markets. Bitcoin stayed stubbornly anti trend today, August twenty second, as twenty six thousand became a magnet for the intraday Bitcoin price action. And again, we're just currently dropping right below it. And regarding the RSI readings, here's what someone had to share. At this stage, it feels like a game of chicken to see who is going to make the move to break the chop, according to material indicators. Now analyzing liquidity on the Binance order book, he also notes that a broad lack of liquidity, increasing the potential for a sharp move in either direction. Quitting the analysts here, the market is waiting to see if more bid or more ask liquidity is going to be attracted to the range. So far, we're seeing small amounts of bid liquidity ladder up from twenty thousand closer to the active trading zone, but no liquidity of any size new or moved has been stacked into the range, defending the price from the lower low. The implications were nonetheless potentially very serious for the bulls with the lower low apt to risk even a twenty thousand support going forward. Quitting the analysts again, needless to say, printing a lower low on this time frame has macro implications. Printing two lower lows would push the Bitcoin price to sub twenty thousand dollar levels. So a great question. How many of you are anticipating the Bitcoin price action dropping below twenty thousand? Let me know. Now zooming out, hope remain that Bitcoin can rescue its overall uptrend. So it's not all doom and gloom. In a dedicated video, we had crypto analyst Mikal van de Poppe shared that on the twelve hour time frames, the RSI measured less than nineteen at the time of writing near its lowest level since the twenty eighteen bear market bottom. Daily levels were similar, reaching their lowest since the March twenty twenty no vid crossmarket crash, quitting him here. Every time we see such a move, you get a sort of V shape recovery back up and it finds equilibrium on the higher floor. And he also added it was very likely that Bitcoin can stage a comeback to focus on twenty six five or more next as the outlines here in this chart. He also shared that the current Bitcoin price action reminds me of September twenty twenty absorption and slowly grind higher here for a while. And I can see this play out similarly. So there you have it. What are your thoughts? Do you feel we're likely to continue downwards, potentially sub twenty thousand or even touch in as low as twenty thousand? Or do you feel we're likely to continue climbing back up as the analysts on the ladder shared? Let me know your honest thoughts in the comments. Right down below. Now let's discuss a new bull cycle amongst us right now. Shall we check this out? The Bitcoin metric that nailed the pit of the twenty twenty two bear market says this uptrend is still intact. Let's go and a new post. The creator of on chain analytics platform looking to Bitcoin shared some good news in the form of Bitcoin's realized cap huddle waves metric. Let's go. While last week's 10 percent Bitcoin price dip has up ended some of the on chain landscape, the our huddle is one of the metrics taking the longer term view of what remains a timely bull market. This metric takes existing huddle waves data, which groups the Bitcoin supply when each coin or specifically the unspent transaction outputs last moved and waits it by the realized price. An example of the price at which it last move, quoting them here, peaks in younger age bands, highlights the periods where they have a proportionally higher realized value waiting relative to the older realized value age band, said Philip Swift. And he also shares this is important to note, as it indicates that the market is prepared to pay higher values for Bitcoin today and in recent times versus historical norms. This can be a good indicator that the market is becoming overheated. What are your thoughts now? Currently, the bands of coins that last moved three to six months ago are rising, a phenomenon coming to the start of the Bitcoin's previous bull markets. And on the topic of the August drawdown on Bitcoin Swift thus concluded that the recent price dip is the context of a much bigger bull trend, quoting him again here, three to six months band trending up as new money comes back into the market equals new bull cycle. Let's go. Now, our huddle has an impressive record when it comes to Bitcoin price phases. Back in December of last year, when Bitcoin was circling its two year lows of 15 six, which is the current market bottom, Swift used this metric to call the end of the euphoria among Bitcoin's speculative investor cohort, which he labels Taurus. He stated that that time that the market is likely now at these cycle lows, which means maximum risk reward opportunity, which I discussed in great detail yesterday. I said there's way more reward than risk currently in the market. And beginning in January of this year, Bitcoin began a new uptrend that delivered 70 percent gains just in quarter one. And since then, investor composition has changed with the short term huddler entities holding Bitcoin for one hundred and fifty five days or less, reducing their overall exposure to their lowest since November of twenty twenty one. And the latest dip nonetheless increased pressure on those remaining speculators, but almost 90 percent of the short term huddler coins now held at an unrealized loss. But I also like to point out that also the smart money, which are the whales, are continuing to accumulate. So even though the short term investors are the paper hands selling their Bitcoin potentially to BlackRock or MicroStrategy, whatever big corporate interests out there, the smart money is continuing to huddle. And as you know, we like to follow the smart money with that being shared, fam. Now let's discuss this new wallet, which came out of nowhere and has now accrued over three billion dollars worth of Bitcoin in less than three months. Who do you think owns this wallet? Well, let's look into it and discuss it, shall we? A mysterious Bitcoin wallet has surged up the ranks to become the third largest huddler of Bitcoin in the world in just over three months, with the timing sparking some wild theories about its owner. According to data from crypto statistics platform Bitinfo Charts, the wallet address first received Bitcoin on March 8th, and over the course of the next three months and two weeks, the wallet had accrued a staggering one hundred and eighteen thousand BTC worth over a billion dollars at today's current prices. Now, the rapid and significant accrual of Bitcoin within a single wallet addresses has attracted its fair share of conjecture naturally on X. Some users suggest it's most likely a crypto exchange moving their funds, while some more radical members have posted and more wild theories suggesting that Black Rock is the prime suspect. As shared here, this unknown address has accumulated over three billion dollars worth of Bitcoin in the last three months. The prime suspect, my first major transaction, which was thirty four hundred Bitcoin, occurred on May 16th, 2023, almost exactly one month later, on June 15th, when Black Rock filed for spot Bitcoin ETF. Now, very interesting, right? Now, the current largest Bitcoin wallets in the world, according to Bitinfo Charts, are reportedly owned by Binance and Bitfinex and are Bitcoin cold storage wallets. The unknown Bitcoin wallet comes in third place and is then followed by another Binance cold wallet in fourth place. Now, Black Rock made waves in the crypto market, as we know, June 15th, filing an application for the spot Bitcoin ETF product that, if accepted by the SEC, will be the first of its kind in the United States and completely change the game. Black Rock's applications sparked a wave of filings for similar spot products from a horde of other Wall Street heavyweights, including Fidelity, Invesco, Wisdom Tree and Valkyrie. The prospect of a spot Bitcoin ETF whipped crypto analysts into a frenzy, sharing their bullish predictions for the price of Bitcoin with Fundstrat's head of research, Tom Lee, suggesting that Bitcoin can reach a price of one hundred and fifty to one hundred and eighty thousand dollars per coin following the halving event scheduled to be in April 2024, which is now officially less than nine months out. What are your thoughts, though, fam? Let me know in the comments. And at the end of the show, I'll be reading everyone's comments out loud. Now let's discuss before we get into very bullish price targets, including this four hundred thousand dollar prediction, which is the main topic for the day. First, let's discuss where's the Bitcoin price likely to bottom out, according to this top analyst. Let's discuss it. The trader who accurately called Bitcoin's twenty eighteen bear market bottom is forecasting how the entire crypto market can carve a price floor for this cycle. Synonymous analyst Bluntz, what a username, love it, shared on social media X that he closely is looking at the total market cap of crypto, which is the total chart. Bluntz says he sees the total chart losing about 15 percent of its value before crypto assets can witness a significant bounce, quitting him here, looking at total paints, the clearest picture of them all and far more than looking at either ETH or BTC on their own based off the total chart. I do believe the June lows still need to be swept before calling bottoms, but it will probably be the last good buying opportunity of the next few years. So seize the moment, fam. And as you can see in this total crypto market chart, you can see we're currently sitting at just barely above one trillion. He sees us dropping before rising to one point four trillion dollars. So it appears that he expects the total market cap of all crypto to plummet to roughly eight hundred and eighty billion, wiping out one hundred and twenty billion off the current market. The analyst is a popular practitioner of the Elliott Wave theory, which we commonly cover here, an advanced technical analysis approach that attempts to predict the future price action by following crowd psychology that tends to manifest in waves. Bluntz says that his prediction is based on a model that outlines an asset's potential correction after a steep rally based, quoting him here, based off simple Elliott Wave model, viewing the rise from the lows as an impulsive move and our corrective wave from the highs being around 70 to 80 percent complete. Now, let me know if you agree or disagree with the crypto analyst. Do you think the crypto market cap needs to shed another one hundred and twenty billion before we rise back on up? Let me know your honest thoughts in the comments right down below. Now let's discuss Guggenheim's seven I'm sorry, four hundred thousand dollar price prediction. Scott Minard, who is their CIO. He originally made this prediction, I believe towards the end of twenty twenty one. Now, unfortunately, he has had a heart attack and he passed, so he's no longer with us. He literally died in December of last year. But nonetheless, he still made this prediction. So we're going to cover it and then we're going to discover the outline metrics from Blockware and their four hundred thousand prediction for the height of this cycle for the next halving reaching the epoch, which is also interesting because they're also suggesting a four hundred thousand dollar price action per coin. Then we'll dive into our live Q &A. So here we go. This was again, this article was dated, as you can see here, January 18th, twenty twenty one. So this is roughly just over two years ago. And at that time, Bitcoin was trading just above forty one thousand dollars. So here's the prediction coming from Scott Minard, from Guggenheim, a large, large asset manager. I think one thing that we are seeing is the sudden interest in retail. We are moving into a speculative frenzy and perhaps it's time to take some money off the table. Now, the debate around Minard's two opposite comments for Bitcoin sparked curiosity amongst the crypto community when he said time to take money off the table. And he also added on this tweet, it was before it became X, it was right Twitter. So he shared Bitcoin's parabolic rise is unsustainable in the near term, vulnerable to a setback. The target technical upside of thirty five thousand has been exceeded time to take some money off the table. And just at that time when he made that tweet, Bitcoin entered a strong correction. And over that time, Bitcoin tested support at thirty thousand twice before resuming back northwards and also talking about the positive side, back to the four hundred thousand price prediction. The Guggenheim CIO said that Bitcoin is becoming a favorable asset class slowly. That's right. And still remains positive on the Bitcoin price action for the long term, quitting him here. The other side of that is demonstrating that crypto is becoming much more mainstream. The four hundred thousand dollar price I talked about was based off the supply of gold in the world and crypto in a lot of ways is more attractive than gold. Let me know if you agree or disagree. I absolutely agree that Bitcoin is way more attractive than gold and comparing it to the yellow metal market. Minard said that Bitcoin comes with additional benefits like portability and ease of transactions. And note that Guggenheim Partners is already seeking five hundred million dollars worth of exposure to Bitcoin via the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, which is the GBTC product, the largest HODLer Bitcoin in the world. They currently control over four hundred thousand BTC. So this will be a 10 percent exposure to Bitcoin from five billion Guggenheim's macro opportunities fund. The investment giant's proposed SEC filing shall become effective January 31st. And when asked Minard of if any of their funds have been allocated into Bitcoin, Minard hinted that they are still waiting for the SEC to approve their proposal. He added that if client demand picks up, they would possibly consider some allocations. And he also revealed that some small private Guggenheim funds have done some allocations, quoting him again, and some of our private funds, we have already purchased it. I recommended it to somebody. So if you believe what I said, that it'll go to four hundred thousand dollars per coin eventually, then two percent of your portfolio will be 20 percent before this is all over. So there you have it. Let me know if you agree or disagree with Scott Minard. And again, rest in peace. The dude had a heart attack at the end of last year and is no longer with us. And with that being shared now for our main story of the day, and that's the block where outline prediction of a four hundred thousand dollar Bitcoin price, along with the math to back it up. Now, this is pretty awesome. And again, shout out to everyone today in our live chat. I appreciate everyone's support. Shout out to Blockware Solutions as they shared on X how Bitcoin can reach four hundred thousand dollars per coin during the next halving epoch brought to you by Blockware Intelligence. Here we go. Twenty twenty four halving analysis, understanding the market cycles and opportunities created by the halving. Unlike other commodities, Bitcoin has a predetermined algorithmic supply schedule, which cannot be changed. There are multiple factors contributing to the cyclical nature of Bitcoin's price, including network adoption and the macroeconomic environment. But the most impactful is the mining subsidy halving. Yeah, that's right. Bitcoin's market cycles are unique due to its fully transparent block chain, providing market participants with more granular information than any other asset class. And moreover, the predictable supply schedule further impacts the psychology of market participants and example demand. So number one, halving's reduce the sell pressure. Miners are the primary force of sell pressure on the price of Bitcoin they receive, although the newly issued Bitcoin and the majority of which they must sell in order to fund operating expenses for their mining operations, the weakest miners on the network are eliminated and sell pressure is significantly reduced. The price of Bitcoin begins drifting up and a new wave of adoption then begins and assuming a thirty five thousand price action after the halving, the U .S. dollar value of Bitcoin mined per year can drop from eleven and a half billion to five point seven billion dollars. That is one hundred and sixty four thousand two hundred and fifty Bitcoin less mined every year, more than MicroStrategy's entire Bitcoin treasury. Now, after the inefficient miners capitulate, the profit margin increases for surviving miners, which further reduces the sell pressure. So based on the post capitulation hashrate estimate, this would result in a two point three billion dollar reduction in annual sell pressure from the miners. Now, number two, halving brings new demand with supply being diminished. Demand is the only remaining variable determining the market price of BTC. Many market participants understand the supply side dynamics at play due to the halvings. Historically, this has led to a surge in demand in the months following each halving, as evidenced by on chain data. We'll be checking out these charts in a little bit and do the positive sentiment market participants prepare to deploy capital at the first sign of upward momentum. Now decreased supply plus increased demand equals strong positive signal for the price appreciation. Number three, the halvings cannot be priced in. Despite their predictable nature, halvings cannot be fully priced in before they occur. A higher price today would result in more miners coming online, introducing additional sell pressure and limiting the price appreciation. And moreover, the weakest miners, those with old generation machines and or high operating costs, are the first to unplug post halving. The elimination of these miners significantly reduces the sell pressure as they were selling most of their Bitcoin to fund their operations. Lastly, there are some market participants that believe halvings are bad for the security of the Bitcoin network as the diminishing block subsidy reduces the amount of miners making Bitcoin more vulnerable to an attack. And when halving successfully occur, these doubters are proved wrong and positive sentiment increases. Now, number four, Bitcoin cycle volatility and historical performance. Bitcoin's extreme volatility is a side effect of its halving shocks and rapid global adoption, resulting in four distinct stages within each halving cycle. Stage one, the halving, stage two, the bull market, stage three, the bear market and then stage four, recovery. And while Bitcoin is often criticized for its extreme volatility on a long enough time horizon, its volatility is solely to the upside. Keep that in mind. Now, nobody who has ever bought Bitcoin and held it for more than five years is down on their purchase. That's worth repeating. Nobody who has ever bought Bitcoin and held it for more than five years is down on their purchase. So in a long term, how long is that? Holla in the live chat. And for each epoch, the price of Bitcoin has increased by the following amounts from the halving to the next bull market top from 2009 to 2011. We had a 584 X increase in price action from 2012 to 2015, 92 X from 2016 to 2019, 30 X and from 2020 to 2024, 7 .7 X. And now number five, diminishing returns may not be the case going forward. Some question the bullishness of these halvings as the stock of existing Bitcoin grows relative to the amount of new bitcoins being mine. This is a common perspective, but it may be incorrect. Less than 10 percent of the existing Bitcoin have moved in the last month. A large majority of Bitcoin is held by users unwilling to sell at today's price. Now, the small amount of bitcoins that is moving and being traded is what determines today's price. There is a baseline of demand and from Bitcoin are saving for the future. The reduction in sell pressure becomes more pronounced, each halving after Bitcoin more than doubles in price. This indicates that halving induced reductions in sell pressure could become more extreme and potentially lead to larger bull runs in the future. Now, 2024 will be the first halving where the supply of Bitcoin available for trade decreased since the previous halving. And during spring of 2020, the percentage of the outstanding Bitcoin available for trade was at an all time high, indicating the Bitcoin was over becoming more abundant. However, this trend had reversed over the last three and a half years. And as the new bull market begins, there will be less Bitcoin available than the previous cycles. The first halving this has ever occurred. And assuming the price of thirty five thousand at the date of the halving, a four hundred thousand dollar cycle top would break the trend of diminishing returns, which is a reasonable expectation due to the two billion having supply shock and increasing scarcity, a liquid BTC supply on the exchanges. Now, number six, juxtaposition with gold. Gold is an asset similar to Bitcoin and that they are both non -sovereign stores of value. However, when juxtaposed, Bitcoin poses far more desirable attributes. Facts. Number one, Bitcoin is absolutely scarce, while gold is only relatively scarce. That's true because with gold, you can continue mining a new supply, adding to the overall supply each and every year with Bitcoin. There could never be more than twenty one million Bitcoin. And number two, Bitcoin is more portable, divisible, fungible and is less vulnerable to rehypothecation by centralized custodians. Facts. So after the 2024 halving, the inflation rate of Bitcoin will fall under one percent, which is less than half that of gold. Now, four hundred thousand dollars per Bitcoin would put the market cap of Bitcoin just beneath the parity with gold. Let's go. Can't wait for a twelve trillion market cap for the king crypto personally. Now, given the bullish catalysts induced by the halving, we believe this is a fair estimate for the top of the coming Bitcoin cycle. Now let's take a look at some of these charts, which they shared. This first one shows you the Bitcoin price issuance with the 90 day moving 90 day change issuance. And you can see, you know, the different metrics here in the different colors. And then let's go to their next chart here. It shows you entities net growth with a 30 day moving average. You can see the surge in demand and just continuing to move on up like clockwork. And then in this final chart here, we can see the Bitcoin price all time highs for each cycle, which is separated, which you can see here. Yes. So, I mean, if history doesn't repeat, oftentimes it shall rhyme. So I cannot wait. And I'd personally love to see a four hundred thousand dollar price action. And this shows you the hash rate, which just continues to climb, reaching all time highs, making the Bitcoin network more secure than it's ever been before. And they also shared an interesting update, which I might as well read that as well right here. Part two. Let's read a touch of this and then we'll dive into our live Q &A. What machine and electricity rate will Bitcoin miners need to survive this twenty twenty four halving? Check it out. There are three distinct phases in the time before, during and after the twenty twenty four Bitcoin halving. We've got number one, the pre halving, number two, the post halving and number three, post capitulation. Number one, the pre halving before the twenty twenty four halving, all miners will be operating at a profit but are likely selling at least enough Bitcoin to cover their operation expenses. Miners with the most efficient machines and the lowest energy rates have the lowest Bitcoin breakeven prices. And the miners with higher breakeven prices are either unprofitable or forced to sell at a higher percentage of the Bitcoin that they mine in order to cover their operating expenses. And also it includes what's minor and Avalon equivalents, which are size adjusted for the percentage of the total network hash rate. Now let's discuss the post halving after the twenty twenty four halving. Many miners will become unprofitable since miners have already made significant capital expenditures for mining Bitcoin infrastructure and are locked into energy contracts. They are unlikely to turn off immediately. So instead, they will try to continue operating for as long as possible, hoping the Bitcoin increases enough to make them profitable again. Now, unless Bitcoin price appreciates quickly, the extreme margin compression will begin to force inefficient miners offline. And number three, the post capitulation following the capitulation of inefficient miners difficulty will adjust down, lowering the breakeven prices for surviving miners who will become even more profitable. So there you have it. I mean, shout out again to Blockware. Awesome analysis on their outline of the Bitcoin price going to four hundred thousand dollars per coin at the epoch of the next halving, which again is right around the corner next year. Let me know if you agree or disagree in the comments right down below. And don't forget to check out CryptoNewsAlerts .net for the full premium experience with video and to participate in the live Q &A. And I look forward to seeing you on tomorrow's episode. HODL.