Former FDA head says some parts of U.S. could see 'exponential' rise in COVID-19

Squawk Pod


We begin with those new fears about the fall, and what the growing number of outbreaks could mean for the school year, Dr Scott Gottlieb the former head of the FDA now, a CNBC contributor raising those concerns tonight, and he is with us once again Dr. Gottlieb's good to be back with you tonight. These concerns come because of the rising number of cases. We're seeing in places like Florida and Texas. Right, I think we absolutely should make an attempt to open public schools in the fall, and we were headed in that direction I've been talking to a lot of school. District says starting to make plans for how to safely do that had a D. densify classrooms how to protect teachers had to keep students grouped into cohort CEO have large groups of students intermingling so that you can isolate students. In case, there is an introduction into the classroom of infection. Infection, but when you look at the southern states in the southeast right now you see these large outbreaks underway, and really some stay, sir, tipping into what we would fashion as epidemic. It's going to be very hard to open public schools against this backdrop so i. think a lot of the focus right now of our discussion is on maintaining the economy keeping businesses open, and we seem to have come to the resolution that we can maintain business and. And keep businesses open even against the backdrop of a lot of infection right now the infection that we have but the decision open schools is a much different decision, and the threshold is much lower and I fear that if we continue to have this persistent level infection that we're seeing in the south and the southeast right now it's going to be very hard for local school. Districts make decisions to open, and if we can't open schools in the. The fall that's going to encumber our ability to really get back to robust economic activity, because payers don't go back to work until their kids go back to school. This is coming as we're seeing infections in places like Florida effect, younger people, and the fact of the matter is Dr Gottlieb. We don't really know the effects of the corona virus on the youngest. Do we because they were pulled out of school and they were kept largely at home. That's right and hospitalization rates are going up across the board, but more twenty and thirty and forty year olds are now finding their way into the hospital. Because infection rates are rising in that community, and that suggest two things number one to suggest that there's probably a lot of twenty and thirty year olds who have grown ivars 'cause we know a much smaller percentage of them are likely to get sick enough to require hospitalization, but would also starts to tell us that they are getting sick enough to require hospitalization I think that there was previously a. A belief that you know if you were twenty or thirty somewhat impervious to this now we see rising hospitalization rates among that age quarter cohort, as far as younger kids are concerned with in every country. This became epidemic. The first thing that those nations did was close the schools and we don't have good data on this, but it's probably the case that parents with school age children here more strictly to the stay at home, mortars in the social distancing so young kids were largely kept in isolation away from situations where they would have contracted the virus. If only because schools were closed very early in the setting of these epidemic, so we really haven't seen the infection. Have the opportunity to infect that community to infect young children, because they were protected from the virus in same way that older people now are protecting some virus in a much lower rate of infection is occurring among older individuals in the country, and so we don't really know how this virus is going to behave. Once it gets into different cohorts that have been largely unaffected to date. If, you were advising the governors of Texas and Florida tonight. Dr Gottlieb what would your advice be about dealing with this epidemic right now? Well they're really at a critical point right now because you don't know where they are in the scope of their community spreading their epidemic baker very easily tip over into what we call exponential growth where the cases start going up very rapidly, and this becomes much more deep seated into community. There are signs that that may be happening already and so what they need to do right now. First of all universal masking is the simplest thing we can do. It's effective. Effective it's not wildly effective, but it's really the simplest thing we can do. That's not intrusive. Shorter closing businesses. The other thing you need to do is very good testing and tracing to find out what are the sources of spread. There seems to be some indictment right now of the bars in Texas and Florida, but we don't have really good evidence at the bars of the sources spread. We think they are because we know they're indoor. Congress settings are high risk. Risk Settings and they're not adhering to social distancing rules that are in place in those states right now, so there's a belief that those are the sources spread, but we don't know that there might be other things causing the spread at the community level that we need to identify, and that's what good tracing comes into play Texas and Florida, having invested in the tracking and tracing if you look at an early of the fifty states, and who's doing a really good. Good Job Texas and Florida aren't the worst, but they're certainly not the best, and there's certainly below fifty. The median level in terms of the number of tracers number public health workers. They have doing this tracking and

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