How did Canada and China end up here? How does it end?
Fess is one of those stories that starts with a news event, the makes bold headline in Asia, and the US falling sharply on news, that top Chinese executive has been arrested in canon, while we see a mum long show. Appearing today in VC supreme court she since been released on ten million dollar bail, awaiting possible, extradition to the US move. She's about to fight from there. The narrative splits into stories about retaliation stories about political posturing trade, stories and business stories and technology stories most of these items are small enough that unless you're really paying attention. You might not notice them, but they are all part of the same big story and that story is still unfolding even when it's not dominating headless yesterday. The president signed an executive order effectively banning US telecom companies from using wall, way technology for five G. This is the next Canada updating its. Travel advisory for China, telling Canadians to exercise, a high degree of caution in China Canada's rocky relationship with China hit another bump today. Beijing has now blocked canola imports from a second Canadian producer Tara over alleged contamination by pests is it an show them? One day you look up your country is four months out from an important election and finds itself. Caught directly between two superpowers with no easy way. So what happens now how did Canada and China's relationship end up here? Can the liberals really soften their talk and deescalate tensions in the middle of an election? And if they do that, and Donald Trump doesn't like it. What happens then? I'm Jordan heath rulings? And this is a big story about a rock and hard place and us David Maas crop is one of our favorite. Geopolitical analysts is a political scientist, and he is the author of too dumb, for democracy. Let's start with the really basic simple stuff. How is Canada's relationship with China right now? It's pretty awful unless something changed in the last couple of hours. And I don't think it has it is that one of the lower point the being out in years, when I was doing my masters I became deeply interested in international relations and China and took a course on China studied, I are SETI, global international local economy. And so that was that's the baseline that I'm going from from my head. I doubt for a couple of years, I was expecting to China and I didn't. But then in the last year or so I doubt back in, especially the last six months, and there's been a notable decline since Canada arrested. Among one Joe on request of the Americans would like her extradited to the US where she's indicted on a couple of dozen or so charges. Of working with a Ron, which is under American sanctions. And that was really the sort of opening salvo in deteriorating deteriorating relationship between Kennedy and China and that sort of decline has been marked by obviously the arrest, but Dan, China, banning Canadian, canola imports arresting to Canadian nationals, Michael covert. Michael Foulon sentencing to Canadians to death on drug charges and Canada, considering banning while way for five technology which the Americans would very much like us to do. So there's you can see from bats quick rundown at the last several months half year or so a growing tension. But, but fundamental rift surrounding largely long-term geopolitical interests. Explain for me if you can how Weiwei is tied to the Chinese government, because I. Here in the west in the, the coverage that we get it almost seems like an arm of the government. And, and I don't understand that. So well, I don't think it is. I mean, I'm not a China expert. I'm a. A writer observer scientists democracy interested in this. And so something I track across several different types of reporting. So it's interesting to see how different countries report on it. How international media reports on it? But also have business media reports on that versus political media. And one of the things you see is that there is some doubt to the rich while as connected to the Chinese government. And as one observer point of there's no smoking gun. But the concern is that either now or at some point while technology could be used in at least one of two ways to undermine geopolitical interests, including economic interests in corporate interests. And one is through the Chinese government, requesting data from the company extra-territorially and a company to comply. So one is they show up. China's government says, look, this is the rules, give us the data and they had no choice. It's a little bit of Kim to the US Patriot Act. And if. You've got stuff. But that's that's a domestic thing. So if you're a Canadian that uses g mail on your stuff is stored on American servers, the government, the US government can access that stuff under the Patriot Act, right? This is one of the concerns with using American service in American technology. It's a bit like that. So it's not like this is just the China issue in their, their concerns with the United States from since as well. So that's one of the Chinese government will be able to request that information. And from what I've read that is generally probably true. The government asked for it while we would have to provide the other is that why would actually build back doors into the technology that would allow spies the Chinese stayed to directly access that tater through the back door? Now, China has a long history of corporate XP knowledge stealing ideas, stealing intellectual property. They're not the only ones, of course. I mean, a lot of America was built and stealing intellectual property. But that is part and parcel of the struggle, you mentioned America couple of times, I because we arrested while way CFO on their request and second. Because there may now be some pressure to not allow away on the five G network because of them. How is our relationship with the state's play into diplomacy with China, and what's Canada going to do if we're caught in the middle? I don't know. I would not want to be Christophe land right now because there isn't an immediate obvious good solution to this. If you're thinking, geopolitically, if you if you're worried about your relationship with the United States for all kinds of reason, the US has been in long-term decline. Then you have a problem if you specially if you wanna look around the world. Develop new alliances and new relationships and China's one of those, especially if you rely on China for things like canola exporting canola, which is significant for Canadian partners. On the other hand, you're dealing with Trump who's Curiel at the best of times. And you're trying to get the US MCA agreement, the US NCA ratified, which is increasingly difficult and unlikely in the current US congress, it might have to wait. So what do you do your bound to the US for other reasons to the border, the movement of goods and individuals? Whatever it was eighty percent or so of our trade, but also defense, right? I mean they're a defense arrangements, whether it's NORAD or NATO. And then on top of that, we're part of the five is intelligence community, and there are concerns that if, if those countries allow countries that are part of the fun is allow wobbly technology. They may not want to share intelligence with them for fear that it's compromise. So what do you do if you're Canada, I have no idea. You know, eve version, who's a scholar at UB a China scholar. I usually Pacific scholar thinks that the immediate move is you deescalate with China and to rebalance that relationship, the more, I think about the more I think he's onto something. But as a recently for the boat mail, we also have to think forward fifty to one hundred years, and they go, what kind of international order. We want to be part of building to ensure that we have a just and ideally democratic. World. Order governed by very careful norms. What country is due to one another into their own people? Well, how does China's global strategy play into what Canada's facing because you've used sort of outlined, some of their bigger strategies towards trade, and trying to lead that international order? So the Chinese belt and become sort of modestly obsessed with the Chinese and road initiative. Explain explain exactly what the belt in Rhode initiative is for those of us who are hearing about it for the first time. So it's several years old now, dates to give or take twenty thirteen and what it is, is in short oversupply a little bit on attempt to recreate the silk road. Through a massive roughly one trillion dollar US infrastructure and development program that will stretch across give or take between sixty and seventy countries and dozens of organizations, and this is a factory China launching a massive investment throughout the world. Now. Depending on how you see it. It's a bit of a rohrschack test for your perspective on China. You could be seen as a development project. It could be seen as a trap China's investing in these countries and that has them on the hook largely, like, by the way, developed countries have been doing around the world for years, in, for instance through IMF programs, but it's also potentially a projection military force, and building of allied ships, strategic partnerships while in the Americas in western Asia in Africa. It now has a growing military component as well to some extent, for instance, with Pakistan, who's building Chinese fighter jets, depending on how you see it. It's some combination of development program infrastructure program, military program and debt trout and big geopolitical play to help China direct the global order in the next in this. In the next century, if one of the options is to deescalate with China and ease the tensions kind of become become more of a part of what they're doing. Can the liberal government do that in an election year? I mean they've they've been standing tough so far. Can they turn around and deescalate this thing without losing face, what would what would the other parties have them do? I'm very curious to I mean Andrew shears line is that he wants to reset the relationship? I don't know what that means. What that would look like I don't know if this is a get tough on China plant, what you're possibly to get tough perspective is that China has been sort of bucking the international order for years, and they talk a lot about rights rules, but they don't follow them themselves. The liberals have been trying to for instance, negotiate some sort of settlement, obviously on canola, but also to try to secure the release of my covert space for China's been hesitant to take meetings, high level meetings and. And we don't have an ambassador in China, currently, and the Chinese investor is leaving at the end of the month. He's been quote unquote promoted to Paris. So now he hasn't exactly been, I think particularly easy to work with. And obviously, if you remember back to John McCallum, who was retired by premise, true toe that relationship wasn't particularly productive. I think either so they're caught. So I don't know what they do in, in lection year because even if the get tough on China rhetoric might play well to some it's not going to serve the country. Well, conserved, canola farmers is not going to serve detained Canadians is not going to serve two Canadians, who are right now have been